Cocoa was the best performing commodity in 2023, recording a price increase of 64%1. Cocoa prices have continued to rally in 2024 crossing the threshold of US$5000 Metric Ton (MT) on 2 February 2024. The last time cocoa prices rose to this magnitude was in 1977 when it reached US$5379MT. A similar situation prevailed back then, adverse weather conditions led to...
Last week , we examined Natural Gas from a seasonality perspective. This week, we aim to extend that discussion and explore other ways to implement a similar view. To quickly recap: From a seasonality standpoint, we identified short-term opportunities for a downward move in Natural Gas. Factors such as higher-than-normal storage levels, unseasonably warm weather,...
WisdomTree has long-standing expertise in commodities, and this asset class constitutes a core part of our business. We aim to debunk several myths that surround commodity investing1. Myth 1: Commodities are only a tactical instrument Some believe that commodities trade in a range and do not outperform over the long term. Furthermore, they think commodities...
Oil demand, driven by China is an area of strength, but a slowing Chinese economy could weaken this. However, OPEC’s resolve to keep markets tight is strong. Petroleum product markets – heating oil and gasoline – are especially tight with inventory significantly below normal and prices have hit ‘golden crosses’ : technical analyst parlance for bullish conditions....
We have already seen about 25% decline from the $130 top in March 2022. However looking at the monthly chart, we might be in the middle of further decline. Notice the divergence of slow stochastics indicated in the chart, so we should be aware of further risk of decline with a strong support around $65 area. 2 interesting facts as of today: - Interestingly MACD...
I have been anticipating the broader market's decline for some weeks, despite good fiscal support and a growing economy (no hyper inflation!), there are still issues which serve to spook the market; these are: - Debt ceiling still has not been resolved, - "Taper", the market words which are in effect positive for the market will serve to further spook the...
Q: What has the highest probability of occurring? There is a lot of volume being traded but the market is moving sideways. The expiration date on the 3rd Friday of the 3rd quarter is approaching. Traders are rolling forward their contracts from September to December. It makes for quite difficult trading of classic patterns. A rise in false breakouts. Consider...
big fund ,larg banks(brokers) use it to predict future backwardation=gold futures price GC1! - gold spot price when it goes up show larg banks,big fund start buying in futures market whenit goes down show larg banks,big fund start big sell in future market now we have high backwardation in 2 days ago , show big banks,big funds start huge buying ,...
Capture of Bitmex March 2020 Futures data for future reference. Also, just released a new indicator that captures Contango in terms of percentage. Added both indicators for analysis of futures curve in $ value or % value
Past instances of this extreme in vix term structure has marked a short-term bottom, followed by continued selling over the following weeks and months.
This week is nothing but reverse bart patterns and scam wicks! I guess this is the result of decreased liquidity caused by the slowly declining volume during the consolidation phase. Bitmex is trading below 2 billion volume as of now, yet open interest is on the slow ascending trend. This tells me the accumulation is taking place possibly by big fishes. In...
BTC is off to the good start this year! Can it last though? I will spare you the head and shoulders bottom. Let's focus on the sentiment analysis because I think it provides important clues for the potential trend reversal. It is good that BTC broke out of the 6 months downward channel with above average volume on the daily timeframe and also managed to...
While studying XBT Contango and Backwardation I noticed a repeatable pattern that XBT was going into backwardation every month for the last 5 months around the same time. I don't have an answer for this, but my assumption is it has to do with commercial interests and how they are driving the XBT Futures market. The strategy does not always catch the top/bottom...
Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to...
Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to...
Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to...
Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to...
Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to...