JNJ presents buying opportunities...in context to:
1. Beta trade with broad index growth
2. Recovery - idiosyncratic growth
3. Potential over reaction re: vaccines
Wait for pull back into range. Buy on lower limits or wait and buy on a break trade!
Earnings up next...another reactionay opportunity!
1. no Russian-US escalation,
2. VIX down and no backwardation
3. Fiscal support good
4. No hyper inflation
5. Debt ceiling - end of July..expect jitters!
Buy on pull backs and monitor potential off-risk.
In the mean time:
Curb the nood 😃😃
Putting aside fiscal support...check out:
1) Vix short and medium term
2) Vix backwardation (if any)
3) Skew and Vix combo
If we see any wardation in the Vix or Vix vs ETFs...its a short trade on:
1) SPX, DIA, DJIA
2) check off risk ..long Dollar Short Commodities.
As a side note: will Gold out perform BTC in an off risk event?
A bit of a grind going-on..no need to chase price...buy on pull backs into the range.
The word 'crypto' is too broad..so treat BTC as a unique case.
My thoughts on Doge are different for obvious reasons.
This special little doggy lives on:
1) tweets from the Musk'tier, and
2) hope - wider adoption.
In other words its an event play subject to:
1) dilution factor
2) boredom leading to selling
3) fear based selling on rallies/events
Unless Musk, Amazon, Coinbase etc., comes to the rescue, I am looking to exit long on rallies. Its a question of capital use given...
I am still long oil with around 125% return on my position.
The oil WTI futures Backwardated previously; now Contango indicating a normal growth market.
I expect additional returns on a growth path. No hyper inflation.
The "Green new deal' not affecting exports and world demand as economies re-open.
I wil get into higher beta trades with oil's pick-up but...
Obvious to me is the fact that Doge ramped-up on a lot of excitement (buying at-market with volume) and now the market just sits and waits! Volume just flat lining with low turnover.
I draw support lines in such a way as to provide a strong 'demarcation' point.
I am currently Long, but currently not growing my position.
Review the intraday price action you see the ramp-up, and then the distribution. You also see this slight parabolic - so buy on pullbacks.
Risk-reward are easy set-ups with limit longs or a break trade to the upside as price drops below key support.
For key support, I am only using price defence areas on closing - the noise you use to execute trades in the 'wicks'
Any time you see the rate of change speeding up, as in a parabolic curve, stand aside and wait for the consolidation or a pullback.
Price going vertically is a time to exit
longs..not a time for new longs.
This will save you from buying at the top of a market and having to suffer large draw downs 😃.
Two great things about BTC and crypto in general; they are:
1) able to trade 24/7 subject to US liquidity / intraday periodicities; and
2) techical / flow driven.
So sharpen up your skills ...there's plenty of money to be made 😃