The oversold bounce is real and bulls have changed the daily trends to their favour, but the weekly trends have yet to change. Here's what I'm looking for heading into next week - We have tight ranges on SPY, Tech and Financial sectors and the breaks of these ranges will give us clues for what to expect this coming week
Entered yesterday and position, via options, and ended up about where we entered minus a few $ for commissions and option spreads.
Today on 195 minute bars we see a 50% retracement from yesterday, the price just at LT resistance and a very tight triangle. Plan to go short at 24.02 with target around $22 or lower.
XLF in downtrend
Retraces to form triangle
Cannot close convincingly above blue trend line.
Stops at previous support which is now resistance and at 0.786 retracement
Fractal flow shows down turn.
Conservative entry is for it to break lower border of triangle, aggressive is for it to breat last 130 bar.
SL just above yesterday's high.
Frst TP it at 22.11
So here we are, right back to the same price level as the last Fed rate announcement. Complete retrace of the tank for XLF, along with AMZN. In fact, retail XRT is actually higher than it was before the announcement, because apparently neither banks nor retail care about interest rates, lol. Look at HYG, corporate bonds are right back up there as well.
If the ...
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect on Setup: 2.18/contract
Max Profit on Setup: .82/contract
Break Even: 23.18 vs. 22.81 spot
Debit Paid to Spread Width Ratio: 72.7%
Notes: Here, I'm just shopping around for particularly weak sectors in which to put on bullish assumption plays that will have plenty of time to work out and/or reduce ...
Quick TA on XLF, we see a clear double topping pattern, looking for the short term moving average in green / or support from the uptrend channel.
We should expect a bounce or bear flag formation. It this fails on support, likely to capitulate downwards toward $16. Stochastic RSI remains bearish at least for now.
$XLF Financials ETF - Looking oversold on the daily chart after closing red or flat for 8 straight trading days. Ending the day today right at a key support level just under $24. A bounce in the coming days definitely hinges on the FED not raising rates tomorrow. If they do nothing, I expect a near term price recovery in the XLF back to the $25-$26 range by year ...
Even with the earning season we are in right now, does it even matter? If there isnt enough liquidity in the market? In my opinion every pop to the upside is an oppurtunity to just sell from higher prices.
Checking in on SPY, QQQ and XLF. SPY and tech sectors looking to test recent weekly supports, meanwhile the financial sector lost that support today and has only the low of October left. In my opinion these supports are must hold levels for the market and the two largest sectors in the S&P500