AdvancedPlays

AdvancedPlays

MSFT is set to report earnings next week as we kick off mega cap earnings season. MSFT just had a fakeout above it's major ascending channel from 2023. It has now fallen all the way back down to the bottom end and even closed below today. It can still bounce, but if not I'll be looking for a move down to $398-$400 at least. That may provide a bounce, but if this...

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This is a tiny head and shoulders, but I think it is valid. Either way, silver had supply there too for double confirmation we'd see downside after. I also posted an idea earlier about a trend break, it's looking fairly bearish, but has a chance to bounce here, which could lead an extended move back up. It had a nice bull flag breakout, but has now fallen all the...

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Well I thought things might be looking like we were going to gap up and bounce a little tomorrow, but it's strange to see what's happening after the bell. Crypto and metals are falling off a cliff. Somehow they held up all day as NQ was tanking, but ETH is melting and BTC broke its uptrend as well. Not to mention VX is green on the session again and is...

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Pretty wild day today. SPY finally broke its streak of not having a -2% day or worse, it had been on the longest streak since 2007. Major weakness for the mag 7 and semis for the first time really since fall of 2023. I think we'll see a bounce here for several reasons, one of which is this trendline on ES that started back in March. We had huge breakout in early...

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ETH and BTC started selling off a couple of hours ago. It's not so bad yet, but if ETH breaks below this trendline, I think it could be another quick leg down. Make or break for the shorter term action IMO.

AdvancedPlays Updated 

I was curious about how BTC would react if semiconductors and NQ dumped. So far, it seems like it may actually be decoupling from NQ. I wasn't sure if this would happen or not, but I am remaining bullish on crypto for now. I have no other longs in the market. BTC held the $66k area, but hasn't bounced much yet. COIN is red, but holding up fine. Currently has a...

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SPY broke it's uptrend from April finally and even broke below the previous ATH around $550. We have some demand here on ES and NQ, but I'm not sure anything is going to hold if VX continues ripping. For now, I'm thinking we may bottom out soon, I think the $542 area is a good spot on SPY, it's not far. If no quick recovery here, it's just going to get a lot worse.

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I've had a lot of bullish ideas for PLTR lately, but it looks it's going to collapse now with many other things. It had a decent looking cup and handle and breakout potential above $27, but it did not sustain. It has came all the way back to $27 now, which is a level from 2021. Must hold or else.

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Today is quite bearish with VX moving up over 10% and many uptrends being broken. NQ is sitting at demand now, it may hold, but I think I'll wait before trying any longs. I used this are to take profit on shorts for now. If QQQ continues lower, I'd expect it to hit $460 soon and that could be a potential bottom for a while. Many supports are being broken, NVDA and...

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Bloody today so far, no real signs of support that I see. VX is stalling near last week's highs though and there are a lot of stocks coming into critical support. Would not be surprised to see a bounce here. The mag 7 is retesting it's major trendline it broke above for the first time. Also, ES is at demand an near 5500. NQ is also at demand. The April uptrend on...

11:44

AdvancedPlays Updated 

I believe it is time for one of the biggest bubbles in history to be popped. I'm talking about semiconductors here, but really I would call this entire situation an "everything bubble." i think it all starts with semiconductors though, once the bubble pops it's going to get ugly quick and shorts will pay. However, timing such a move is difficult, but with some...

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The Dow looks pretty weak right now to me and as we've seen the mag 7 rally relentlessly. I've been avoiding shorts on tech and semis because they are driving the majority of this rally and shorts have not worked. The Dow has been fairly strong, it is near ATH with everything else. However, there have been a lot of bearish stocks in the Dow such as NKE and DIS,...

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So NQ has broken broken below its uptrend from April, but there's a long way until open tomorrow. If we see NQ continue lower into open, along with ES breaking its uptrend I think we'll see a lot more downside soon. ES is still maintaining its uptrend for now., first target is ~5400.

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I hate to do it, but I have to post a bearish idea for GME. It has been holding the $23.50 area pretty well, but has a bear flag after a pretty significant drop from up around $30. Not only is this a bearish chart in my mind, but GME struggles heavily during broader market down turns. There are times where it inverses the market and it's a dangerous short....

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NQ is still holding on to its uptrend from April, but barely. After GOOGL and TSLA earnings, NQ has broken below the uptrend for now. Not by much though, I think it can really get moving if there is a strong break tomorrow and judging by the current activity, it does seem quite bearish. We'll find out soon enough, I'll be watching the 19.3k area for a first target.

17:56

AdvancedPlays Updated 

Here's some thoughts on today's action and some updates on some of my recent bearish ideas. So far it's a negative reaction for GOOGL and TSLA after earnings, so it looks like QQQ will be gapping down, but there's a long way to go until open. Still having some audio issues with my mic making crackling and popping sounds. Trying to figure it out, but I think I...

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I have been posting a lot of bullish ideas for BTC and stocks like COIN lately. Now that I'm seeing something that might be bearish, I feel like I should share. This is a short term pattern on the 15m, but it's a decent looking wedge that is ending near a longer term trendline from the bull flag on the 1D. BTC has seemingly gone straight up since bottoming out in...

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COIN doesn't appear to be slowing down after its recent run up with BTC. This is a longer term bull flag that should lead to an extended move up if it can hold. It closed above it today and I don't see any signs of weakness on BTC either so I'd expect it to keep going from here.