Commodity Outlook: Cyclical pressures vs structural strengthsCommodities have been enjoying a strong revival in recent years, with broad commodities returning 27% in 2021 and 15% in 2022. A combination of fiscal and monetary support in the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic helped to soften the damage to demand from one of the deepest economic shocks in mo
Contract highlights
Volume
—
Contract size
100
Current contract
AWM2023
Commodities are more than just an inflation hedgeIn 2022, we saw some of the highest levels of inflation in the US and Europe since the 1980s (Figure 1). Not only had central banks left the punch bowl at the party for too long, but many supply shocks had sent prices rising sharply. The Ukrainian war, for example, sent energy and food prices higher
Commodity Index AnalysisBear case: There is a descending triangle and a time cycle of peaks suggesting downside.
Bull case: There is a trendline suggesting upside
General: If the green trendline is broken to the downside, there is no moving average support* until the 20-month SMA and below that there is only the 100-week
Commodity OutlookRecession may be a red herring for a market fuelled by a supercycle
While broad commodities have outperformed most major asset classes year-to-date1, the pressure of rising interest rates, a strong US dollar and fears of several large economies tipping into recession has led to a pull-back since t
Trendline and Channel Tutorial: Part 2In part 2 we discuss how to construct and utilize sloped trendlines (TL) and Channels in order to better understand the ebb and flow of supply and demand. Like most other charting techniques understanding supply and demand and its relationship to trends and channels depends on you staring at hundred
Trading Seasonal Market Patterns RecapTrading Seasonal Market Patterns
Hey traders today I wanted to do a recap of all the Seasonal Market Patterns covered in the series. Also putting it all together for yearly trading opportunities. These Seasonal Market Patterns can be very rewarding l to all of us in our trading if we know when to
BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX II PRICE ACTION IS BEAUTIFULAmazing how THE PRICE JUST REFUSES TO FORGET ... not matter the asset class ... and by the way, this is an index.
It´s been over 8 years since this resistance level was laid out.
Not saying it will hold, just saying it is being respected for now.
Price action is beatiful!
Lower commodity prices before higher $96 first, $80s nextEveryone's bullish commodities and calling for a supercycle and a breakout here. However, every commodity chart looks like it's in the process of topping or has already topped.
Then if you look at this chart, it just hit resistance again and hasn't been able to break through.
The highest probabil
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