This alternative view of the BTC halving cycles contains estimated peaks and lows. This view may be easier to see. Please let me know if you have any questions or ideas.
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The peaks seem to appear between the "green" & "blue" indicator lines on the "right" side of the center red lines.
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Everyone may want to keep an eye on this chart too:
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BTC is likely to decline over the next 12 months. However, after an estimate 2022-09-11 date, it is very likely to being increasing based off off the extended long-run historical data and trend.
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BTC is currently in the decline
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BTC & TOTAL Market Cap may double from 2021-10-31 to 2022-02-31
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BTC may remain around 63.6k within 33 days; based off of the: 30m view; EMA ribbon.
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BTC 103k by 2022-01-24 on the 3h view
BTC may see 103k by 2022-01-24. This is the 3h view; followed by a short decrease period (around 2022-02-15 or 2022-03-27 or 2022-04-20) of up to 19% after peaking.
Today is March 26, 2021 on the November 20, 2021 trend (see next two charts below).
On the chart below, BTC is measured in USDT & the "ZEC+ZEN+TRX+ETC" is measured in BTC.
2020-12-28 to 2021-12-23; View: "D". TOTAL (1,2,4) + BTCUSD + ETHUSD + ETHBTC
This may be a perfect forecast of BTC 3-hour (2021-05 to 2022-02) 103k by 2022-02-02.
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Deflation slowing BTC purchases (NOV 8th (weekly data) ); leading to a decline in BTC prices.
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BTC log 4-hour view 2021-12-15 to 2022-03-15; increase to 76k to 86k around 2022-03-15, then decrease during late March, April, & May 2022 to around 43k to 53k.
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This is a more conservative & much slower rate of increase BTC 2022 Q1, log view, daily, forecast. 2022 Q1 BTCUSD Forecast, log view, daily. 46K 2022-01-13; 56k 2022-01-16; 53k 2022-01-24; 66k 2022-02-16; 69K 2022-03-03; 53k 2022-04-04
Reminder: Diesel fuel expect to run out on 2022-11-19 in US & Europe. Perhaps, this shortage maybe felt [empty] at the diesel pumps around 2022-12-12. Check news & energy departments for updates.
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2023 Q1 & Q2 bear. Q3 (flat) & Q4 slightly bull. mostly as recession risks increase along with WW3/WW4 activities.
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Still on a relatively flat, then downward trend:
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Roughly $25,555 could be next peak, before next dip.
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$24,666.66 then decline for 2023-02
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BTC may find bottom by 2023-06-06, after there is more historical data available.
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BTC may find bottom by 2023-06-06 (daily) (2022-01 to 2024-01):
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BTC repeating trend of 2022-07 & 2022-08 (possible double bottom or "longer flatter bottom", before the steady rise to the estimated peak of 2025-01):
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BTC may stop declining before 2023-12. BTC weekly 2022-03 to 2023-08 BTC weekly chart from 2022-03 to 2023-08 reflects a $36666.66 to $15666.66 zone for 2023-04 (see green dashed-line). However, the strongest resistance zones, based off of today's historical data (on 2023-02-28), reflect a $32666.66 to $15666.66 zone for 2023-08-28 (see pink dashed-line).
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Based off of 2018 to 2020 analysis compared to today, there can be an additional -20% drop from today's price to 2023-06:
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News: "Economist Harry Dent Expects Biggest Crash in Our Lifetime" " Bitcoin may go down more like 95%, 96%. Dent expects the crypto market may crash alongside stocks, with BTC falling up to 95%-96% from its November 2021 high. "
There is a very high probability that BTC will decrease significantly from 2023-8-15 to 2024-01-15. Especially in 2023-12. recession prediction = 2024-01
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recession prediction = 2024-01
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2024 Recession -35% to -50% Update:
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(click chart to play) BINANCE:BTCUSDT 1W 2022-12 to 2024-02:
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(click to play)
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(click to play)
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"Major Crypto Market-Wide Correction | Run For Your Life!"
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2024-01-16 Update:
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bottom should complete in the next 9.99 to 19.99 days (66.6 days before halving based off of past data). unless: there is a black swan effect from the 2024 spring offensive. also, using my idea "The hunt for BTC bottom" idea (aka magik box) with the Jan 3 update pattern; the increase should occur in the next 15 days as well.
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BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 4h may reach bottom between 2024-02-01 and 2024-02-11: (click to play)
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still in play
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$150000 to $250000 is still very possible for 2025
@melikatrader94, Thank you for your comment. I made this update after seeing your like. :D
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I was monitoring this view very closely a year ago. However, we were able to successfully delay the recession another year (even though the average person is in great depression status by several measurements). Therefore, the Q1 recession dip was smaller with the massive adoption rate increase (i.e. ETF enabled more buyers). This is my pre-ETF Q1 recession onset dip monitor chart ( directly above this comment here).
This is a possible smaller shakeout before taking it to $81888 very soon. We did see that same pattern before we took $71777 as well as $61666 and $51555. Even $41444 was a very similar shakeout. The one strategy is to liquidate the leverage; which will result in freeing up more shares of ownership available.
(Exception: this time there is an increase in the adoption rate.) So sometimes it dips before halving & other times after halving. So it is possible that the 2023 double dip (2023-05-15 to 2023-06-15 & 2023-08 to 2023-09) plus the 2024 Q1 (2024-01-08 to 2024-01-15) small dip was the dip this cycle. It seems like $65666 was recent bottom before the next level of $81888.
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Really interesting work , thanks for sharing it with us
Thank you for posting such an interesting long term analysis. Really nice work. Found lots of great info when zooming in and poking around. I echo @ImminentDebacle's comment regarding the potential for a second, higher, peak in the current blue-to-green band given your analysis of past cycles. You used the word "risky" in replying to his/her remarks, especially regarding your decision to exit. How do you perceive and/or calculate "risky", since this means something different to most people depending on their personal circumstances and character as an investor or trader? In other words, what is your acceptable drawdown beyond which you would describe a position as being "risky"? While risk can always be expressed mathematically (Sharpe, etc.), "risky" as applied to trading vs hodling by real people can be viewed much differently. I am asking because what you deem as a "risky" position might be well within (or beyond) what others might consider as acceptable. Attaching some numbers to "risky" would help to a great degree. Thanks again!
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@SIGPokerKing, Thank you so much for your exceptional question! In this posting "risky" for the definition is the following:
Risky - One who sells 100% of everything and it not an investor and “attempting to win big” within a short-term. One that might be so short on money that they would need the money back within 6 months or less even. Someone that is not able to wait for 6 years (long-run) if that’s what it took to make some nice returns.
Math (past ATH) - A non-investor (very inexperienced) trying something new by attempting to enter at 18k and needing the money when it's 6k (based off of last ATH cycle).
Match (this cycle) - A non-investor entering by mistake at 61k and becoming very frightened and exiting at 36k.
Reminder: Long-term the chart clearly shows a very nice return expectation. All good things come to those who wait for this forecast.
Technology: It's really not risky at all if everyone is very careful and has multiple backups of their own private keys. Also, if they have a 2nd machine just for crypto that is extra high security.