SIGPokerKing

SIGPokerKing Updated 

Highlighting the potential for an imminent short term rally in SPX, crypto, and other risk-on markets on Sun/Mon or on/before Wed coincident with US Fed announcement. Also, the pervasive negative sentiment, not without reason, is making markets look like a coiled spring. Great setup for Fri, but investors unlikely to hold large bullish positions over the weekend...

SIGPokerKing

After the July 7 close BTC quickly broke below the rising channel at 34.3k and is looking to hold the 33.4k horiz resistance, next 32.3k. BTC also broke down out of the wedge pattern it had been forming since mid-June. The stock markets are beginning to show signs of stress, as breadth is decreasing while mega-cap techs continue their upward trajectory. 10Y...

SIGPokerKing

BTC nearing 35.9k resistance, which has been an important horizontal level since the end of May. If BTC breaks to the upside, 38.1k next. Channel beginning Jun 22 has been almost perfectly respected, but bearish wedge pattern may also indicate yet another short term pullback. Stock market overextension and bottoming volatility could resolve coincident with a...

SIGPokerKing

BTC is back near the bottom of its established trading range since May 19 (orange lines). Several wicks and closing candles at this level show that it’s important. Still neutral, frustrated, and bored.

SIGPokerKing Updated 

I redrew my green current support trendline on the 8H chart to more accurately depict BTC's support trajectory. I had published earlier tonight that the candle ending at 2000 hrs EST had closed below support, however after correctly redrawing the line I found that BTC closed above the trendline and that support had held. As the chart shows, BTC is now trading in...

SIGPokerKing Updated 

As shown on the chart in red shading, the now well-known "pi cycle top" crossing occurred on Apr 12, which was curiously 2 days prior to COIN's direct listing. I mention this because many investors have irrationally taken COIN's listing to also indicate the top of the current BTC cycle. While I have no direct evidence to support this (no hate mail, please), I...

SIGPokerKing

Yellow line is support drawn from BTC's uptrend which began in earnest on Dec 11. S/D lines are cloned, with current strong support between 58k-59k. Note the immediate bounce off the 50 SMA/50 EMA cross at 1600 hrs EST on Apr 10. Both MA's are also offering strong support and corroborate the trendline support in the same 58k-59k range.

SIGPokerKing

BTC began its current move up on Dec 11, which is where I began this trendline of major support. Since this date BTC has closed only three daily candles below this line, and after some congestion around this line at the end of Jan, since Feb 2 BTC has not closed below it. Note the important touches and support on Feb 28, Mar 25/26 and finally on April 7/8, after...

SIGPokerKing

I have had a series of ideas regarding this key level and another one at 58167, and we're back here once again. Since 58354 became the first ATH in this cycle on Feb 21, it has been wicked to or closed at from both sides on 16 different 8H candles. This is clearly an important S/R level, and the current candle (closing in 6 hrs at 0400 EST) has already been...

SIGPokerKing

GBTC announced that it will change its current trust structure into an ETF (as soon as gvmt approval is granted) that will carry far lower mgmt fees than currently. GBTC has been trading at an 8-12% discount to NAV and this gap will close significantly to prevent an arbitrage between the price of the Grayscale BTC ETF and the spot price of BTC.

SIGPokerKing

Since the first ATH on Mar 11, BTC 8H candles have been wicking or closing very near or directly on 58167, thus this is an established key horizontal level. The current 8H candle is testing this level again, this time as resistance, but there are still 5:20 min until this candle closes, so anything can happen, including a break above this level. This level should...

SIGPokerKing

While trading above 59000 overnight, BTC failed three consecutive times to close an 8H candle above the important level of a previous March ATH of 58354 (yellow line). Finally, the 8H candle ending at noon EST closed above that level, however BTC was sinking in the 30 minutes prior to the candle close, and could have closed below or at this level again. In fact,...

SIGPokerKing

On Monday, after several rejections (see attached ideas), BTC finally blasted through its 50 sma and its descending bullish channel resistance, but it is has been rejected in the last two 8H candles at the important level of 58354, which is a previous ATH from March 21 (yellow line). Since this date, this level has been at the end of wicks or closes on 8H candles...

SIGPokerKing

In my prior post, I noted BTC's rejection on 4 consecutive attempts at breaking through its 50 sma on the 8H and that it has been rangebound between its 50 sma and 50 ema in this timeframe. In this post I look at the daily timeframe and the 20 sma and 20 ema, in which BTC has also been somewhat rangebound. However, on the daily the red oval indicates a nearly...

SIGPokerKing

BTC has been rejected at an almost static 50 sma on 4 consecutive candles on the 8H, and has been rangebound between the 50 ema and the sma for the last 7 candles. It has been bouncing between the support and resistance of a bullish descending channel since March 11. It was also rejected at nearly the identical 50 sma on 2 8H candles on march 24. The top of...

SIGPokerKing

I don't usually use dma/ema for BTC analysis, but since lately it has become more correlated with equity markets, so I thought I'd start looking at it, and not surprisingly these levels have been working very well in predicting the range of BTC behavior. I've been indicating for many days that the 54980 level (coinciding w the 50 ema) was proving as significant...

SIGPokerKing

While I usually don't use moving averages in TA of BTC, it is notable that last 3 8H candles have closed within a few dollars of either side the 50 ema (yellow line) and below or at the upper trend line. 54980 also remains an important 8H level, as there have been a dozen touches and several candle closes at this level since March 9. A negative RSI divergence has...

SIGPokerKing

The 8H candle that closed at 8 pm EST eked above both the established important level of 54980 and the 50 ema. Immediately after closing the candle, BTC shot up $500 and at this moment is maintaining this level. Leaning neutral to slightly positive here, as the 8H 50 sma is still sitting as resistance at 56542. I would be more constructive on an 8H close above this level.