As shown on the chart in red shading, the now well-known "pi cycle top" crossing occurred on Apr 12, which was curiously 2 days prior to COIN's direct listing. I mention this because many investors have irrationally taken COIN's listing to also indicate the top of the current BTC cycle. While I have no direct evidence to support this (no hate mail, please), I suspect COIN manipulated BTC's price higher in the days before its direct listing in order to attain a higher valuation and to offset any selling that might have occurred in anticipation of the much-followed pi crossing. I'm an ex-Street analyst, PM, and trader, and I learned to NEVER underestimate the element of personal greed that might otherwise corrupt a trustworthy management's decisions and actions.
Thus, I believe COIN's management created an artificially-manufactured BTC cycle top which by total chance occurred within predictive range of the pi crossing. As you may know, pi has never actually predicted a BTC cycle top in real time. In fact, over the past few weeks, I have written that pi was about to be invalidated unless BTC's previous ATH was suddenly exceeded, which was very unlikely...BUT this did, in fact, occur. (See attached.)
Thus, I believe that without COIN's suspect manipulation of BTC's price prior to its direct listing, the pi indicator would have indeed been invalidated. This is also why I believe we have not yet reached the top of this BTC cycle.
Note that on the 8H chart, BTC has still not closed a candle below the green support trendline which I drew from the low wick on March 28. The yellow trendline is drawn from the start of BTC's uptrend on Dec 11. The current 8H candle closes at 2000 EST (0000 UST).
Perhaps even more importantly, BTC's 50 EMA (8H) provided strong support in last night's sudden selloff, as it was approached but not touched.
Cons: A compelling argument for BTC having reached the cycle top is that historically, in the weeks after a cycle top alts greatly outperform. This is precisely what we have been seeing over the past few days.
While I am bullish on BTC, I am not using leverage in trading BTC, and am closely watching the 8hr candles for further validation of support.
Happy trading to all.
Thus, I believe COIN's management created an artificially-manufactured BTC cycle top which by total chance occurred within predictive range of the pi crossing. As you may know, pi has never actually predicted a BTC cycle top in real time. In fact, over the past few weeks, I have written that pi was about to be invalidated unless BTC's previous ATH was suddenly exceeded, which was very unlikely...BUT this did, in fact, occur. (See attached.)
Thus, I believe that without COIN's suspect manipulation of BTC's price prior to its direct listing, the pi indicator would have indeed been invalidated. This is also why I believe we have not yet reached the top of this BTC cycle.
Note that on the 8H chart, BTC has still not closed a candle below the green support trendline which I drew from the low wick on March 28. The yellow trendline is drawn from the start of BTC's uptrend on Dec 11. The current 8H candle closes at 2000 EST (0000 UST).
Perhaps even more importantly, BTC's 50 EMA (8H) provided strong support in last night's sudden selloff, as it was approached but not touched.
Cons: A compelling argument for BTC having reached the cycle top is that historically, in the weeks after a cycle top alts greatly outperform. This is precisely what we have been seeing over the past few days.
While I am bullish on BTC, I am not using leverage in trading BTC, and am closely watching the 8hr candles for further validation of support.
Happy trading to all.
Trade active:
Textbook example of how support can quickly flip and become resistance. The 2000 hrs candle closed below the green support line, and the price has continued to weaken. The green line has become local resistance, and thus the current candle has become much more important in the larger context of how BTC is trending. In the meantime, I am changing my rating to hold vs buy pending development and closing of the candle at midnight, when I will re-evaluate this asset.
