Yesterday i mentioned in my last few updates, that there was some hope for the bulls to create an inverse H&S that could possible take us to the 8000. But the But i mentioned it was quite certain that we would test the lows again, because the rally from the low was not that convincing. That inverse H&S was their last hope to avoid that. I just woke up and saw the bulls have failed. When i saw what happened, immediately the price action at 9200/9400 came to my memory (yellow circle). It was almost the exact same price action AND movement of the price. Also formed a small wedge/channel from which it dropped out of in a straight line. At the moment we are in that yellow area, and so far there is no indication at all that next move should be different than the previous one. Of course there is one big difference, the previous one was still around the highs, we have dropped almost 25% since than. But Crypto's are a very emotional market and things get extreme all the time, up and down. Since we are very close to that blue support line again, chances increase it will break and that we will probably see another big drop very soon.
Those blue lines are the support and reisstance lines of that big triangle i have mentioned lately. The bulls have had several attempts the past few days to show some countermoves, but all of them were just so weak, i am afraid something bad is going on this time. I think that if the 7000 gets broken, we will see a very big crash the coming days/week. There is another factor in favor of the bulls, usually during weekend we don't see big moves and usually sideways action. So a big drop could be delayed and maybe during the weekend, when price stabilizes and forms a good support around the 7200/7500, it just might give enough confidence to push higher again towards the 8K.
But let's be realistic, it looks like real crap now, for days already! chances are much bigger we will see a drop today and probably even a break of the previous low. If it was in the beginning of the week, i would say almost certain we drop towards the 6000. Now it's different since it's already Friday. So it's up to the bulls now, if they show some strength and start to buy again the blue triangle support could hold for the coming days and it could be the low for another rally, at least to cool things down and make a correction up again to the 8K levels. First big step would be a break of the 7700 and first small step would be a break of the 7500.
I give it 70% than we continue to drop and that the low will break, can't say if the weekend will be sideways or not, but the next few hours will be important i think. After the drop a few hours ago it has formed a bear flag, indicating to the support levels could break within the next hours even, that could trigger a big acceleration down. So as long as we stay below the 7500ish for now, i think that things will get very ugly
I know most of you don't like what i have to say here, it was just so much easier when i had less than 1000 followers. I was much more direct about certain facts but i don't want people to think that i am talking the market down and therefore i try to picture more scenario's than to what i think is the most likely one.
Don't forget to like if you still appreciate what i am doing here :)
This is the current problem that the bulls have now. A bear flag after a nasty 300 point drop. This will be the first big challenge they face at the moment, invalidating this bear flag. Because this flag has a target around 7000 it could become a very big problem.
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Whales trying the same move as yesterday? With that small bear trap?
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Could clearly see they tried, some whales probably, trying to force a small squeeze like yesterday, but seems the attempt has failed.
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Okay guys, i read the comments, i will just say it as it is from now on. I always give possibilities but i will do it like i used to do :)
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Think we go towards the 6900/7000, anything between the previous low and now could still function as a small support, but those chances are very small now
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And another attempt, so far still selling pressure that pushes it down, above the red area we could see a (small) squeeze up. I can't say yet what the trick is now, pushing out short positions before dropping again, or a bear trap again and going up
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So that small rally has weakened again, starting to look that it will drop again. We are still inside a correction phase, meaning price could go on moving like this for a while. Making those moves up and down until it finally chooses a direction. Going lower still has the biggest chance, but be aware for the bears among us, the lower we go the bigger the chances are for a squeeze upwards. Since we have made quite the drop already from the 8600. I drew a triangle here, but i am not sure of it's value yet. When we zoom out it's more like a bear flag. But to be a real bear flag, it should actually follow that blue line to make a fake upwards breakout first. We can see a small bull flag in the making now, but there is still selling pressure so i can't say yet if the bulls can push it through. Objectively viewing this, that fake small bear trap it made earlier normally shows there is something going on, to push the price higher. But it is almost taking to long already. The bigger picture for me is still 80% sure we go lower eventually, only a rally above 8000 could change my mind about that.
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I have been thinking, since we did not push higher after that small bear trap, maybe it has another explanation. Since the CME expiration is today (few hours left) and we have just been moving around the 7450/7500, probably the price they want to let it expire. Could mean the market was headed down (that drop to 73xx) and got pushed back up again buy the 'CME' futures traders/whales. Just thinking out loud, but it sounds very logical to me now.
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Only good thing to say is, probably see a breakout soon. Could be both sides of course, still hanging around the support of the (possible) triangle.
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Going to make an update later, this is the start of the chart
David, Personally, I believe you should call it as you see it. If your interpretation of what you see is bearish, say so. The crypto-market is traded by people having a wide range of skills and too many trade on hope. The market does what the market does and the only way to sensibly deal with that is to consider multiple options, see how thy play out and amend the plan as that happens. People who criticise that approach should really consider if trading is the right activity for them to be pursuing.
TheScalpman
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@Geronimo2, i agree, we are surrounded by bullishness, too much if I'm being honest. If your bearish (and we know you are:)) we can take your opinion on board and make up our own minds.
fxrizon
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@TheCryptoCrank, AGREE
proficy
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@Geronimo2, @botje11 I agree, the way I see it you are a very good trader on the short timeframe, catching the feel of the market. I do think that you don't understand the revolution Blockchain tokens (crypto) is causing in the business world and the long term value creation, but that's fine, it's not needed for the trading purposes you educate here, ans in fact would stand in your way of performing. You are doing a great job calling what you see.
@botje11 you have to stay ferm man, dont change your approach just for the sake of your viewers. you’re doing a great job and being transprent and straight forward is a huge virtue, therefore.. please dont change and use the same approach wether you have 1 follower or 10k. speak your mind! you’ll never be able to please anyone anyway, not worth it.
racebum
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personally i use you technical guys for a counter indicator. back in december/jan. everyone was technically bullish. market falls. april. most were bearish. market rallies. today, most are bearish. rally incoming. i mean do you really think this market is worse than mt gox collapsing and bot manipulation being uncovered? because that's the current argument on here when charts are posted with these drastic declines often to under 5k . do you also realize it should not matter to traders if the price is $2000, 20,000 or 200,000? you need liquidity and low slippage yes? the lower this goes the more entrenched the hodlers become and volume drys up. it already is. anyone notice the bart patterns that have been a thing? that didn't exist in 2017. a rising market draws out coins from hodlers, increases liquidity, increases optimism and increases fiat flow to market. i mean do you ever watch hashrate? it's still increasing. if the majority really felt this was going below profitability which is currently around $6000 do you think they would continue to keep investing>? i think many of you are closet bulls who just want it to go down so you can get what you feel is a better deal. this by itself is a fallacy. i mean ...what is "low"
CJoe
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@racebum, - seems to me like you have not read any one of Davids analysis and are talking about something external; sorry maybe you read one or two sentences? read it full
TradeClass
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@racebum, I so wish you were right. LOL Would love to see this market rally to 10k... ASAP! However, bigger forces are at play here. The market manipulators that are being caught are just the small fish. The monster fish, aka TEAM EVIL have bigger plans and the whales are just the rooks on the chess board. The market is set to drop for reasons no one can understand, but this time I think the market is correct (for a change LOL) The drop to 6000+ is almost a guarantee. Then at THAT stage, a new analysis begins. Also Racebum, when you argue a strong point and get noticed.. people will either remember you as a prophet or a buffoon. Keep that in mind when presenting your points :)
UnknownUnicorn2454397
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@TradeClass, "The market is set to drop for reasons no one can understand" - Just think about that argument for a second.