Bitcoin moving sideways during the weekend, direction on Monday?
Nothing has changed since my previous update, price is still moving sideways. Yesterday it looked like Bitcoin was slipping and would make another drop but there were some buyers who pushed the price back into the triangle again. In one of my previous updates, i mentioned that i was thinking about 2 options. A bear flag, which would mean the price has to go towards 7700/7800 first and than drop again or that we just drop from that point on. Since then we have been moving up and down and making a bigger triangle (something it has done more often!). I remember from the last time (yellow cricle) i was short from the 8900 (don't remember exactly) and i closed around the 8000/8200 i think because i thought the price would make a correction. It dropped even more and during that 'yellow' phase i was waiting for 8200ish to go short again. There were several attempts to push higher but eventually it did not become a flag but a triangle. So i missed the whole ride down that time.
That's not the point, it's always better to miss out on an opportunity than to trade a loosing one. For your mindset it's still no fun to miss a trade you had seen coming but missed completely. But it's ten times better to jump into a trade because of FOMO and you start to loose. It damages your confidence much MUCH more, while missing a good trade maybe even builds your confidence. And trust me on this, loosing confidence in trading is a bigger loss than a standard loosing trade. Trading is for the long run, just like online poker has been the last 10 years as well. You want to become more stable and loosing confidence could destroy that if you can't get it back again.
Anyway, i think we are at a similar situation now. In the chart you can see 3 different lines/scenario's of what i think are most probably to happen. I am still quite sure that we have not seen the end of this drop. So the blue line is less likely for me. The green and red are the ones i think will happen. I really can't say which one it will be, meaning if we start to drop now or make another move up towards the 7800 first. That's why i have decided to go short with half now (7550) and add around the 7650/7750. So both trades are 1 position together in size, so not 2! But as always during weekends, predicting what will happen is much more difficult. We usually go sideways during weekends with some exceptions of course, so day trading this action (small rides) is very difficult!
Several Alts have still not reached their targets yet and there is nor reason yet to say that they won't reach them. I think only a break of around 8000 could change things. I talked about a very bearish scenario the last week or 2 and since some followers said that i should just say things like i used to say when my follower numbers were much lower i decided not to sugarcoat my thoughts. So what i said was that if the 8000/7800 will break that we will probably drop to 7000ish. And i was almost quite certain that if we would reach that target we would drop even more. And if the 7000/7200 breaks i only give it a 25% chance that the 6000/6500 will hold. So far still no reason for me to change that though.
Don't forget to like if you still appreciate what i am doing here :) LOl
David
Previous analysis
That's not the point, it's always better to miss out on an opportunity than to trade a loosing one. For your mindset it's still no fun to miss a trade you had seen coming but missed completely. But it's ten times better to jump into a trade because of FOMO and you start to loose. It damages your confidence much MUCH more, while missing a good trade maybe even builds your confidence. And trust me on this, loosing confidence in trading is a bigger loss than a standard loosing trade. Trading is for the long run, just like online poker has been the last 10 years as well. You want to become more stable and loosing confidence could destroy that if you can't get it back again.
Anyway, i think we are at a similar situation now. In the chart you can see 3 different lines/scenario's of what i think are most probably to happen. I am still quite sure that we have not seen the end of this drop. So the blue line is less likely for me. The green and red are the ones i think will happen. I really can't say which one it will be, meaning if we start to drop now or make another move up towards the 7800 first. That's why i have decided to go short with half now (7550) and add around the 7650/7750. So both trades are 1 position together in size, so not 2! But as always during weekends, predicting what will happen is much more difficult. We usually go sideways during weekends with some exceptions of course, so day trading this action (small rides) is very difficult!
Several Alts have still not reached their targets yet and there is nor reason yet to say that they won't reach them. I think only a break of around 8000 could change things. I talked about a very bearish scenario the last week or 2 and since some followers said that i should just say things like i used to say when my follower numbers were much lower i decided not to sugarcoat my thoughts. So what i said was that if the 8000/7800 will break that we will probably drop to 7000ish. And i was almost quite certain that if we would reach that target we would drop even more. And if the 7000/7200 breaks i only give it a 25% chance that the 6000/6500 will hold. So far still no reason for me to change that though.
Don't forget to like if you still appreciate what i am doing here :) LOl
David
Previous analysis
Comment:
There is something i need to say, after reading some of the comments lately.
Predicting an asset all the time is impossible, just impossible! A normal serious trader looks at alle the markets, stocks/forex/commodities etc. Than it's the job of a trader to look for good setups.
Thing is, you always have periods you can make great predictions. Sometimes several a day even but sometimes even weeks or months without seeing a good setup. With crypto it's getting worse each month, my followers know how much i have been complaining about this the past month or 2. What used to happen in 1 day (half year ago), now it takes weeks! It's all about volatility. You want to catch rides outside of a range, inside a range it's very difficult to predict what it will. This what many people call noise.
I am trying to be honoust with you guys at all times. I have my moments when i am quite sure what will happen and than i say that. And the moments i just don't know, i say that as well. The people with more experience know what i am talking about but i know most of crypto traders have less than a year experience and still need to learn this the hard way. If you can't accept this fact, than it's better to follow someone else who does claim he/she knows it all the time. My early followers know what my succes rate is so i don't need to explain myself any further. I used to give great trades several times a day, now patience has become key. The market is changing, i think we can all see that now. After another failed attempt to make a bull run at 10K. Not saying this market will crash, but please forget about the massive runs we had half a year ago. It was a once in a life time opportunity, the ones who did get in early got lucky.
I started trading this market since Oktober 2017 and i only traded it, no massive runs. I also had a big position for example in XRP, at 0.21 and to a ride to 0.28 and took profit at 0.26 because it did not push through. Few days later it started that massive run up. Did i feel really bad about it? NO!!, did i slap myself in the face, of course :)
Thing about me not feeling about it, because i know for a fact that these runs are extremely addictive. In my case with my experience i would be more calm about it, but it would/could probably even effect my future decisions in trading. Ask your self this, how many of you sold their coins or at least part of them at the 11.700 high or just at the previous high at 10K? I know for a fact that most didn't since i received allot of messages about what to do when it started to drop below the 9K and even 8K. It's just how markets work, they play with your emotions, they create hope. Big players know exactly what to do, they really do!!!! But knowing this, really knowing and feeling this, takes many years of experience to be able to stay objective. Not to pat myself on the back, but why do you think i was able to short the market at the 10K and at the 11.700. Just look back at my analysis from the 11.700 high, how confident i was we would not make a new bull run.
Just think about it and think about your mind set during those moments.
Predicting an asset all the time is impossible, just impossible! A normal serious trader looks at alle the markets, stocks/forex/commodities etc. Than it's the job of a trader to look for good setups.
Thing is, you always have periods you can make great predictions. Sometimes several a day even but sometimes even weeks or months without seeing a good setup. With crypto it's getting worse each month, my followers know how much i have been complaining about this the past month or 2. What used to happen in 1 day (half year ago), now it takes weeks! It's all about volatility. You want to catch rides outside of a range, inside a range it's very difficult to predict what it will. This what many people call noise.
I am trying to be honoust with you guys at all times. I have my moments when i am quite sure what will happen and than i say that. And the moments i just don't know, i say that as well. The people with more experience know what i am talking about but i know most of crypto traders have less than a year experience and still need to learn this the hard way. If you can't accept this fact, than it's better to follow someone else who does claim he/she knows it all the time. My early followers know what my succes rate is so i don't need to explain myself any further. I used to give great trades several times a day, now patience has become key. The market is changing, i think we can all see that now. After another failed attempt to make a bull run at 10K. Not saying this market will crash, but please forget about the massive runs we had half a year ago. It was a once in a life time opportunity, the ones who did get in early got lucky.
I started trading this market since Oktober 2017 and i only traded it, no massive runs. I also had a big position for example in XRP, at 0.21 and to a ride to 0.28 and took profit at 0.26 because it did not push through. Few days later it started that massive run up. Did i feel really bad about it? NO!!, did i slap myself in the face, of course :)
Thing about me not feeling about it, because i know for a fact that these runs are extremely addictive. In my case with my experience i would be more calm about it, but it would/could probably even effect my future decisions in trading. Ask your self this, how many of you sold their coins or at least part of them at the 11.700 high or just at the previous high at 10K? I know for a fact that most didn't since i received allot of messages about what to do when it started to drop below the 9K and even 8K. It's just how markets work, they play with your emotions, they create hope. Big players know exactly what to do, they really do!!!! But knowing this, really knowing and feeling this, takes many years of experience to be able to stay objective. Not to pat myself on the back, but why do you think i was able to short the market at the 10K and at the 11.700. Just look back at my analysis from the 11.700 high, how confident i was we would not make a new bull run.
Just think about it and think about your mind set during those moments.
Comment:
Moving 12 hours in almost 30 points LOL :) Anyway, still at the high of this triangle, judging on that the price is at the high of this pattern, we should see an upwards breakout. This low volume does make my job easier though, only need to update twice a day maybe :)
My trade plan is still the same, nothing has changed
My trade plan is still the same, nothing has changed
Comment:
First making a false breakout of that triangle and than immediately starting to drop. If it wasn't weekend i would say it's 95% sure we drop, i have had some bad experience in weekends, because we see more manipulation than usual. Just like that fake breakout it made, just so obvious it's a planned move.
Could make a bear flag now, stay in it for 12 hours or more :)
Could make a bear flag now, stay in it for 12 hours or more :)
Comment:
Now even if we follow the blue line, i think we should at least drop to 6900/7000. But i still give that blue line scenario the smallest chance. Still have my short position from 7550 and have just moved my stop to around my entry level for a free trade
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I have decided to put my stop back to 7900, not that I assume it will go up again. But I have the feeling the market wants to go down but is being supported at the moment, not to push it high again, but to delay the drop until the weekend is over. It’s difficult to know what’s really going on, but it’s my best guess. I am not waisting my time watch the price action today, so i can be more sure. Even though there is some action now, very big chance we move sideways again until Monday
Comment:
And everyone still waiting for an answer of the PM message, I will try to answer them tomorrow. But I will announce here, personal advice questions on how what to do when still long since 9500 or things I give answers to here, I won’t be answering that anymore. Just post them in the comment section and I am sure enough W people will help you as well.
It took me half a day 2 days ago to answer only half the PM messages. I used to answer everything, but the messages have increased in 10 fold. So sorry guys but I hope you understand
It took me half a day 2 days ago to answer only half the PM messages. I used to answer everything, but the messages have increased in 10 fold. So sorry guys but I hope you understand
Comment:
So far it's still within this bear flag, so no reason at all to expect higher prices. Also still below the triangle resistance line.
Comment:
This bear flag is taking to long again to be a normal bear flag. This makes it more difficult to say what will happen. 3 scenarios to take into account, just normal flag and dropping down. But what they have done allot the past 2 months, is push a squeeze upwards. If we see a 300ish squeeze, we can expect to see some follow through to the upside, third option is a 150/200 point squeeze which than will probably a fake one and just starts dropping again. We are still below the bigger triangle, therefore chances that we eventually drop again is 80% for me, so the immediate drop or the fake squeeze and drop are most realistic for me. So a rally to 7800ish is less likely.
These moves are just so controlled guys, wish I could give more certainty, but there are games being played. Just look at those small spikes up and down, how they get pushed back in so quickly, those are whales trying to hide their footprints. I am not at home otherwise I could get hints from the priceaction.
These moves are just so controlled guys, wish I could give more certainty, but there are games being played. Just look at those small spikes up and down, how they get pushed back in so quickly, those are whales trying to hide their footprints. I am not at home otherwise I could get hints from the priceaction.
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This is why i say it's very difficult to say for sure what will happen with this bear flag
Comment:
Seems somebody already took my botje11 name for a telegram channel. Hopefully they are not pretending to be me
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Problem solved :) Its ready now
Comment:
There was no problem with my channel name, i just made a mistake it seems :)
Comment:
Zooming out, i drew that bigger channel again since we can see a different picture here. The bear flag where it's still inside of, is almost getting to big to still see it as a bear flag. Almost starting to look like it wants to get back inside. Volume picture shows those chances are small, but the weekend is almost over so the volume could still kick in of course.
Even though the picture has slightly changed a bit, i am still inside my trade, still profit and i will not change or close. You have to understand, the goal of these sideways moves are to confuse. Earlier today is was quite convinced that we would continue the drop and go towards my first target around 6900/7000.
We can see in the chart that bulls tried to push it back in a few times already, until bulls gave up OR bears pushed it down again. Anyway, even if bulls can push it back in, i don't think they will be able to push it above the 7800. We have to be patient and hope for a breakout of this sideways action so the market can finally show some direction
Even though the picture has slightly changed a bit, i am still inside my trade, still profit and i will not change or close. You have to understand, the goal of these sideways moves are to confuse. Earlier today is was quite convinced that we would continue the drop and go towards my first target around 6900/7000.
We can see in the chart that bulls tried to push it back in a few times already, until bulls gave up OR bears pushed it down again. Anyway, even if bulls can push it back in, i don't think they will be able to push it above the 7800. We have to be patient and hope for a breakout of this sideways action so the market can finally show some direction
Comment:
Forgot to post the update here as well ;)
There is a small chance that it’s making a descending wedge now, can’t judge it really good now. Meaning a bullish wedge, but I still assume the targets (btc and alts) will be reached. I have moved my stop to entry level again
There is a small chance that it’s making a descending wedge now, can’t judge it really good now. Meaning a bullish wedge, but I still assume the targets (btc and alts) will be reached. I have moved my stop to entry level again
Comment:
Looks like a small squeeze is coming up
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Looks like a small bear trap again, just when everything seemed like it would start to slip and make a drop, bulls pushed it up and are trying to force a short squeeze. The 7300/7350 is a heavy resistance though, won't be easy to break!
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Think the squeeze attempt has failed already, maybe a push through the 7350 could force that. So far it's just noise and i am not changing anything
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I keep getting an error on posting my new analysis. I have posted it on my channel an hour ago. I will contact TV help desk to find out what is going on to solve this problem. My other alt analysis could be posted but BTC still can't. Hopefully it gets solved as soon as possible
Comment:
So far still looked like it was a fake breakout again, shaking some short position out to drop without them again. It’s almost certain we will see a big move soon, could be both ways because the charts say so, but I think a drop is much more realistic.
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If there was a moment for a squeeze up, it should happen now! It;s almost dropping below to much below the bullish wedge, if bulls can't push it up, we could see a very nasty drop within the next hour
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But still many alts AND Bitcoin have not reached their targets yet, so even though i am seeing this, i still assume we drop to 7000/6900, but fingers on the trigger, lowered my stop as well towards 7250 now.
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I think the moment of truth, it dropped to much below it, but could still be a false move, If bulls are able to push it above the 7200 that they might force a squeeze. and rally because of this bullish wedge, but if it takes to long it will fail!
Comment:
Small triangle here, could break both ways, but from it's position a drop is more likely. The first attempt to squeeze up failed again. Has been failing allot of times lately. Alts are also still bearish, no real reason to think we can go up. Only that bullish wedge is making me doubt. This possible false break is taking to long to stay valid, therefore a continuation down should be expected
Comment:
There is still now real selling pressure, and the price is being bought up. So we are seeing some support now. Still think we will drop more this week, but it's clear bearish momentum is dropping. So i might accept that my 6900/7000 won't get reached before getting above the 7300 again. I have placed my stop to 7320 now. I am calling it a day, it' s 05.15 in the morning now, been answering PM messages for 6 hours now. Please guys, stop sending me messages with personal advice with what to do with your long position from 9000. If you didn't listen to me than, why should you now. If i tell you to take your loss here and we squeeze up big, than all of a sudden i become the bad guy. So i won't answer them anymore. Just takes to much time, i used to do it, but i just can't anymore. Feel free to ask in the comment section, always allot of people who are willing to advice. Good luck and good night :)
Comment:
One last thing about my last post, about many people coming with those impossible question's. What i mean is, when they bought they listen to other analysts, but when the trade gets horribly wrong, they come to me. But i can't do anything good there, the loss is already there and i could only talk them out of a possible reversal. That's why i mean, i could only be the bad guy in this case.
Anyway, so the squeeze just happened as we suspected a little bit. I really thought it would maybe fail this time, because it dropped out of that bullish wedge and stayed at the low for so long. But to be sure i lowered my stop to 7320 and made sure i still made some profit from my short at 7550. If i did not see those signals yesterday i would actually just leave the stop at entry, because i think this move is just a temp move up. But here we see, why staying objective is important and not to ignore certain signals. Because i was not convinced of both sides, i made a compromise and lowered the stop. Being stubborn usually doesn't work.
In this chart we can see, it's against the resistance, chance it won't even get in. BUT, the volume is quite high of this squeeze, that usually means it should show some follow through. I am staying flat for now because the signals are mixed at the moment, chances that we drop within a few hours again is very small i think, so no need to be afraid of FOMO the drop.
Anyway, so the squeeze just happened as we suspected a little bit. I really thought it would maybe fail this time, because it dropped out of that bullish wedge and stayed at the low for so long. But to be sure i lowered my stop to 7320 and made sure i still made some profit from my short at 7550. If i did not see those signals yesterday i would actually just leave the stop at entry, because i think this move is just a temp move up. But here we see, why staying objective is important and not to ignore certain signals. Because i was not convinced of both sides, i made a compromise and lowered the stop. Being stubborn usually doesn't work.
In this chart we can see, it's against the resistance, chance it won't even get in. BUT, the volume is quite high of this squeeze, that usually means it should show some follow through. I am staying flat for now because the signals are mixed at the moment, chances that we drop within a few hours again is very small i think, so no need to be afraid of FOMO the drop.
Comment:
I think we have to assume we are headed towards the 7700/7800
Comment:
As long as the price stays above the 7250, it's a very big chance we are headed to the 7800ish.
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Add invite code AFTER signing up, bonus up to $250: 4JU345F3
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And i want to say i am sorry for not answering most questions in the comment section, i know most of you are used to it, but i have been very busy last few days answering all the PM messages from the last few days, glad to say i answered half of them already :). I need an assistance :)