Thanks for posting your chart and analysis. The Fib information you provided has been programmed into every algo that trades BTC, so it doesn't necessarily present any individual trader with an edge. Also, the BTC investor base is much different and there is much more knowledge of the cycle today vs 2017, so I'm not sure if this cycle will be as similar as everyone believes. Algos could take BTC back to 16k or lower because they're generally momentum driven. Be careful what you wish for.
Unless you're short, 40k would not be considered a "gift" by anyone who holds a significant number of coins, esp if there cost basis is much higher than 40k. It's not necessarily bullish, either, because there is no guarantee this cycle will exactly follow previous cycles and that BTC would rip up significantly from 40k.
Turtle_Lightz
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@theworldinscents, Either way patience is the best plan. if it goes down to 40, YAY! Buy some and wait. If it goes down to 16 HECK YEAH buy a lot and wait. Just because this cycle may not be exactly the same as previous (Though I still believe it to be more similar than a pullback to 16k right now) there is still immense growth to come. 40k, 16k, either is welcome just be patient and don't panic sell as it drops. The seasoned holders don't care about temporary dips in their portfolio and dips in general are a lovely little gift.
SIGPokerKing
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@Turtle_Lightz, I totally agree that often assets can become oversold or mis-priced for any number of reasons, and that these often represent great buying opportunities. For example, mis-pricings can occur as a result of earnings/guidance disappointments, poor management communication, perceived company-specific risks (regulatory, supply chain, etc). However, investment vehicles such as stocks and bonds can at least be evaluated using valuation multiples, DCF analysis, supply chain channel checks, and many other ways in which edge can be obtained that can a unearth a mis-priced asset, in addition to macros. The seasoned holders you refer to can at least rely on fundamentals to bolster a bottom to most investment vehicles, at least at some point.
BTC is very different. It has no earnings, cash flow, dividends, or management, and thus a "correct" price cannot be determined using a conventional valuation framework. There is no such thing as a mis-pricing of BTC, because there is no correct price. We can use tangential data points such as blockchain analysis, days since halving, exchange flows, and HODL ratio, and (insert your favorite FUD or other metric here) in order to determine the price we are willing to pay, but their impact to BTC's price can only be deduced or implied when compared to just a few past cycles. Truth is, none of us knows with certainty if BTC will have the "immense growth" you mention. We are assuming that a rational market with no additional regulation will cause this growth to occur. I know I am, which is why I have never sold a single BTC, rather I have only purchased it.
Unlike most other cryptos, BTC is essentially a closed end fund with limited supply and, unlike Ethereum and some other cryptos, no other use than as a store of value. There is no guarantee its price will behave precisely as it did in past cycles, yet that is how we are pricing it today because we don't have other options to hone in on a "correct price". I suspect this is primarily why there is so much disagreement about its price dynamics in any given timeframe.
In short, we are treating BTC as an adult, when in fact it's just a kid who throws random temper tantrums. We are shooting in the dark on it's "correct price" based on the specious data mentioned above, a presumption supply and demand (scarcity), the macro landscape, opinions of "experts", FUD, greed, comparison with past cycles, and famously the pi cycle (already invalidated in this cycle), any and all of which may lead us to the wrong conclusion.
So we are left to trade BTC on technicals, which should incorporate all known info, because it's the most accessible and best understood methodology we have at our disposal.
We will only know what the "correct price" was for this cycle in hindsight, and as with other asserts, BTC will have a top price based on what people were willing to pay for it at the time. No more, no less.
Turtle_Lightz
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@theworldinscents, Im not sure where that even came from. "Correct Price"? I think the Correct price is the price it is at. The only point I was making is that in the entirety of Bitcoin's existence no one has ever lost money by holding longer. If some holders wanna cry because this quarter they lost a million dollars from a drop then they should get in another game and give me their btc or look at something else for a year or two and then come back to massive gains.
SIGPokerKing
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@Turtle_Lightz, Ok, said that way, I agree. Still, I doubt that anyone who is a non-whale and long a bunch of BTC would be thrilled to see it at 40k at this point. I was about to say that I think we'll get that chance when I noticed above that BTC just hit 61k then saw that earlier it closed a 4H candle above 59k on decent volume. Nice surprise after a boring week for BTC, and now 40k would be a 33% correction, but it could still happen.
As an aside, I will offer to split that BTC from the losers with ya.
scousertommy
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never not even 45
khaledsamodien
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you way off
Dan_Wang
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dude, you have a lot to learn about trading
ataturk23
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I can't believe 2017 market still applies today. Btc was a teenager back then, it's now going to college.
insanelybad
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Sir, we've already had a 30% correction. Followed by the 25% correction you pointed out after...
Unless you're short, 40k would not be considered a "gift" by anyone who holds a significant number of coins, esp if there cost basis is much higher than 40k. It's not necessarily bullish, either, because there is no guarantee this cycle will exactly follow previous cycles and that BTC would rip up significantly from 40k.