We rarely post Bitcoin (BTCUSD) analyses on the 1M (monthly) time-frame, but this one does justice is showing the complete long-term picture.
On a monthly basis, Bitcoin has been forming a bottom since the June Low, within a zone formed by the Fibonacci MA and Multiple 1. At the same time the 1M RSI has been trading exactly at the bottom of the Channel Down pattern that goes back to April 2013.
This is the painful but necessary bottom process that BTC has to go through on all of its Cycles and it appears that it bears more resemblance with the early 2015 sequence. The cyclical pattern on every Cycle is the same. Lower Lows, a Resistance and a Cup like formation which after it breaks the Resistance starts the parabolic rally to the new Cycle High. Based on this model, the next Resistance break-out may not happen until early 2024.
What are your thoughts on this? Is Bitcoin about to complete a painful but necessary bottom process? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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@Nightmoon888, Thank you, much appreciated feedback.
without_worries
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Have drawn your arcs on the 8-day chart. A painful and long bottoming process it may be, however if you look left you'll realise this is what a bottom looks like. The difference between current prices and what the internet is talking about is a rounding error compared to the values that'll be seen down the road.
@without_worries, First of all 'Hello' and thank you for your valuable contribution. I assume you consider March 2020 as the bottom of the previous Cycle and not December 2018. Thanks again and keep up what you do best.
without_worries
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@TradingShot, 'December 2018' was the bottom for me, when the 'great buy' signal printed. A little to the left of the arc apex. Have never had a false signal print.
I don't actually believe we're entering a new cycle but rather just a wave 5 blow off top and this bear market has been nothing than a horrible wave 4 correction as per the weekly chart below. I expect the blow off top to reach its apex (what that is exactly is anyones guess) by the time a FED pivot occurs.
#Crypto #Predictions