Very probable. In the next 6 to 9 months.
This idea is a continuation from the idea:
‘Is Bitcoin about to collapse to $20k ??” published back in December. You can read it here: tinyurl.com/35bp2xc8
Previously the $20k target was based around the idea of a wave 4 Elliot wave correction. A strong sell signal on the weekly. Now everything is in reverse. Wave 5 rally seems highly probable with a strong buy signal. Actually this is the first ‘incredible buy’ signal I’ve seen on a weekly chart of Bitcoin, no matter the exchange.
I can hear it already:
“This isn’t a wave 4 correction, it’s a bear market!!”
Yes and no.
Yes, technically it is a bear market, but crypto winter? No. This is just a heavy wave 4 correction like we’re seen in other cycles, such as:
1) July 2019 to April 2020
2) April 2013 to August 2013
Both corrections were around 75%. What you’ll notice is the rally that followed each of those corrections was particularly strong.
** Lengthening cycles **
I’ve a big fan the lengthening cycle theory first brought to my attention by the Youtube Benjamin Cowen. If you overlay the theory with pervious cycles you find the market top for this cycle is 6 months earliest 9 months latest. The increasing lengths are shown on the above weekly chart.
How does rally play out? As per the weekly chart below, a rally to the $48k level before September. There’ll be an excellent swing trade opportunity around this time. And then off to the top.
What are the fundamental reasons for all of this happening? Risk assets all over are about to do the same. We’re told a recession is coming if not already in one (depending what country you’re in) with an environment of rising rates. Obviously the two cannot coexist, the FED will have to pivot if economies are showing slow growth. When the herd get whiff of a rate pivot..
The other half to this explosive growth is slowing demand in the face of peaking inflation. With the rate rises everyone has started to watch the pennies at the exact same moment retailers have overstocked. There’s no question inflation has peaked and will likely now come down hard in the months ahead in an environment of rising rates.
The combination of rate pivot and falling demand is a unique set of circumstances you don’t see very often. You’ve got to look back decades.
Questions? Just ask below!
Ww
Type: trade
Risk: <=40% of portfolio
Timeframe: 6 - 9 month
Return: 6x
Weekly chart
This idea is a continuation from the idea:
‘Is Bitcoin about to collapse to $20k ??” published back in December. You can read it here: tinyurl.com/35bp2xc8
Previously the $20k target was based around the idea of a wave 4 Elliot wave correction. A strong sell signal on the weekly. Now everything is in reverse. Wave 5 rally seems highly probable with a strong buy signal. Actually this is the first ‘incredible buy’ signal I’ve seen on a weekly chart of Bitcoin, no matter the exchange.
I can hear it already:
“This isn’t a wave 4 correction, it’s a bear market!!”
Yes and no.
Yes, technically it is a bear market, but crypto winter? No. This is just a heavy wave 4 correction like we’re seen in other cycles, such as:
1) July 2019 to April 2020
2) April 2013 to August 2013
Both corrections were around 75%. What you’ll notice is the rally that followed each of those corrections was particularly strong.
** Lengthening cycles **
I’ve a big fan the lengthening cycle theory first brought to my attention by the Youtube Benjamin Cowen. If you overlay the theory with pervious cycles you find the market top for this cycle is 6 months earliest 9 months latest. The increasing lengths are shown on the above weekly chart.
How does rally play out? As per the weekly chart below, a rally to the $48k level before September. There’ll be an excellent swing trade opportunity around this time. And then off to the top.
What are the fundamental reasons for all of this happening? Risk assets all over are about to do the same. We’re told a recession is coming if not already in one (depending what country you’re in) with an environment of rising rates. Obviously the two cannot coexist, the FED will have to pivot if economies are showing slow growth. When the herd get whiff of a rate pivot..
The other half to this explosive growth is slowing demand in the face of peaking inflation. With the rate rises everyone has started to watch the pennies at the exact same moment retailers have overstocked. There’s no question inflation has peaked and will likely now come down hard in the months ahead in an environment of rising rates.
The combination of rate pivot and falling demand is a unique set of circumstances you don’t see very often. You’ve got to look back decades.
Questions? Just ask below!
Ww
Type: trade
Risk: <=40% of portfolio
Timeframe: 6 - 9 month
Return: 6x
Weekly chart
Comment:
** Strong market bottom signal **
You all be lucky I enjoy studying data so much. Thus far the comments below are easily majority bearish. Completely in line with the contrarian outlook.
Remember 95% of the people reading this will lose money. They keep doing it time and time again. There’s no end of messages ‘$10k is next bro, I’m short’. Just imagine, every seller today is almost certainly doing so at a loss. Just let that sink in for a moment.
On the 10-day chart below an alarm that was set up a long while back just triggered. Had completely forgotten about it, obviously. There is two moving averages:
1) The yellow line the 700-day EMA
2) The red line the the 150-day SMA
There is only two data points to be sure. However what is irrefutable is the timing of the market bottom when those moving averages crossed. If you’re hanging on for that full 80% 90% collapse..
It does not end here.. no no. Look at the time that came to pass before price action touched the 150-day SMA from the crossover. A 70% reduction in time, which now projects a $34k price target before August 10th. Now I understand that might seem tenuous, however, this information actually takes data from multiple time frames not what is just shown below.
Viel Spaß!
Ww
You all be lucky I enjoy studying data so much. Thus far the comments below are easily majority bearish. Completely in line with the contrarian outlook.
Remember 95% of the people reading this will lose money. They keep doing it time and time again. There’s no end of messages ‘$10k is next bro, I’m short’. Just imagine, every seller today is almost certainly doing so at a loss. Just let that sink in for a moment.
On the 10-day chart below an alarm that was set up a long while back just triggered. Had completely forgotten about it, obviously. There is two moving averages:
1) The yellow line the 700-day EMA
2) The red line the the 150-day SMA
There is only two data points to be sure. However what is irrefutable is the timing of the market bottom when those moving averages crossed. If you’re hanging on for that full 80% 90% collapse..
It does not end here.. no no. Look at the time that came to pass before price action touched the 150-day SMA from the crossover. A 70% reduction in time, which now projects a $34k price target before August 10th. Now I understand that might seem tenuous, however, this information actually takes data from multiple time frames not what is just shown below.
Viel Spaß!
Ww
Comment:
Daily chart, bullish divergence printing on the historical 300-day/weekly moving average.
Bears... prepare yourselves, short positions to the moon please.
Bears... prepare yourselves, short positions to the moon please.
Comment:
The inverse head and shoulders pattern as identified on the 1-day chart below is actually more powerful on Stochastic RSI than it is on price action. It is telling you there is about to be a leap in momentum. You don’t often see them but when you do… don’t sit on your hands! This inverse head and shoulders is larger than the last. The way to think about this… You know what a slingshot is? This one is pulled back further than the previous.
Trade active:
4 charts up ^^^ look up ^^^ I said:
“The ‘incredible buy’ signal is conditional (red circles), and has yet to confirm. When it confirms the label will appear on the chart. I’ll make this idea ‘trade active’ once confirmation prints.”
The signal was confirmed yesterday.
“The ‘incredible buy’ signal is conditional (red circles), and has yet to confirm. When it confirms the label will appear on the chart. I’ll make this idea ‘trade active’ once confirmation prints.”
The signal was confirmed yesterday.
Comment:
There be a lot of messages informing me of the bear flag that is currently printing as is shown on the 18hr chart below.
“$12k is next bro, such and such on Youtube said… ”
“$16k will break then $12k” etc etc
Is this possible? For sure it is. The market is so fickle right now. Could be a liquidation, who knows.
Is it probable? No. Why? That 2-day chart above and now zoomed in a little below:
1) You’ve got the buy signal as before, look left + the market bottom green strip.
2) Price action is on the 0.618 golden zone.
3) Bullish divergence with Stochastic RSI and MACD.
I’d long this chart every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
Stay away from social media folks.
Ww
“$12k is next bro, such and such on Youtube said… ”
“$16k will break then $12k” etc etc
Is this possible? For sure it is. The market is so fickle right now. Could be a liquidation, who knows.
Is it probable? No. Why? That 2-day chart above and now zoomed in a little below:
1) You’ve got the buy signal as before, look left + the market bottom green strip.
2) Price action is on the 0.618 golden zone.
3) Bullish divergence with Stochastic RSI and MACD.
I’d long this chart every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
Stay away from social media folks.
Ww
Comment:
Comment:
** pi-cycle bottom alert **
The Melbourne based exchange, Eightcap, is the first to print the 'pi-cycle' bottom alert. Expecting others to print the alert over the next 24hours.
The Melbourne based exchange, Eightcap, is the first to print the 'pi-cycle' bottom alert. Expecting others to print the alert over the next 24hours.
Comment:
This was shared to me, can't take credit. Was told to check out the fractal from the 2019 correction to the present day. Don't trust, verify. So I did.
Remarkable. What you have here is the 2019 correction overlaid with the present day correction.
Should this fractal continue to play out as it has done, price action shall be around $30k end of July / Beginning of August and in the mid-$50k area during September.
Remarkable. What you have here is the 2019 correction overlaid with the present day correction.
Should this fractal continue to play out as it has done, price action shall be around $30k end of July / Beginning of August and in the mid-$50k area during September.
Comment:
** pi-cycle bottom **
All high volume exchanges are now printing the pi-cycle bottom label.
Here are the last two times only it is has previously printed.
Is this the bottom? Highly probable +/- $10.87 you know how fickle this market is.
All high volume exchanges are now printing the pi-cycle bottom label.
Here are the last two times only it is has previously printed.
Is this the bottom? Highly probable +/- $10.87 you know how fickle this market is.
Comment:
Amazing how well this fractal is projecting rice action. Should it continue, $25k is hit 3 days from now.
Comment:
For the 3rd time ever a 'great buy' signal prints on the 5-day chart.
Still waiting for $12k?
Still waiting for $12k?
Comment:
Have you seen how the weekly log growth curve chart looks at the moment? The symmetry is remarkable with the target clear to see.
$48k by around September / October latest. At that same time there'll be an amazing swing trade opportunity as club 95% rush in when they should have been doing so at $17k. We, club 5%, will need their liquidity so be nice to them.
$48k by around September / October latest. At that same time there'll be an amazing swing trade opportunity as club 95% rush in when they should have been doing so at $17k. We, club 5%, will need their liquidity so be nice to them.
Comment:
Better be quick before Ben does a 40 minute YouTube on this..
Price action on Bitcoin has printed its first green weekly Heikin Ashi candle from the sell off. That has not happened since the end of January. This means the trend is reversing.
The candle that printed is called a ‘inverted hammer’ AND it has printed as green. What does this mean?
1) See the wick? That tells you the bulls were able to go deep in seller territory will little resistance.
2) It printed Green. This tells you sellers are exhausted. I did a tutorial on this a while back and why this reversal pattern is very powerful. You can read about it here:
tinyurl.com/487jttmu
The weeks ahead are about to very exciting, don’t let sentiment overwhelm.
Latterly on normal candles, the first ever ‘incredible buy’ signal has printed on the weekly chart. No matter the exchange this has never happened before. What does it mean? It means price action on this sell off was the most oversold ever. The March 2020 sell off doesn’t come close.
Price action on Bitcoin has printed its first green weekly Heikin Ashi candle from the sell off. That has not happened since the end of January. This means the trend is reversing.
The candle that printed is called a ‘inverted hammer’ AND it has printed as green. What does this mean?
1) See the wick? That tells you the bulls were able to go deep in seller territory will little resistance.
2) It printed Green. This tells you sellers are exhausted. I did a tutorial on this a while back and why this reversal pattern is very powerful. You can read about it here:
tinyurl.com/487jttmu
The weeks ahead are about to very exciting, don’t let sentiment overwhelm.
Latterly on normal candles, the first ever ‘incredible buy’ signal has printed on the weekly chart. No matter the exchange this has never happened before. What does it mean? It means price action on this sell off was the most oversold ever. The March 2020 sell off doesn’t come close.
Comment:
A lot of messages:
“Looks like it’s going back down to $17k”
“Such and such on YouTube said $10k is the next level”
Emotions are still flying all direction and not one bit of that energy is studying the charts.
Technical analysis 101:
1) Look left - Notice the 300MA has never failed price action in the history of Bitcoin. That means $19.5k was the floor. i.e the last cycle top.
2) Support and resistance. Did anyone else notice the price action resistance was recently broken and now support back test is underway? Furthermore the same is also true on the RSI resistance.
In summary to those messaging, chill chinchilla.
“Looks like it’s going back down to $17k”
“Such and such on YouTube said $10k is the next level”
Emotions are still flying all direction and not one bit of that energy is studying the charts.
Technical analysis 101:
1) Look left - Notice the 300MA has never failed price action in the history of Bitcoin. That means $19.5k was the floor. i.e the last cycle top.
2) Support and resistance. Did anyone else notice the price action resistance was recently broken and now support back test is underway? Furthermore the same is also true on the RSI resistance.
In summary to those messaging, chill chinchilla.
Comment:
Monthly price action closes on the 50-month moving average (blue line). If you look a closely, the candle bodies in this correction are near mirror copies of the 2018/19 and 2014/15 corrections. The 2018/2019 bars pattern correction is overlaid on todays correction. $70k by the year end.
Comment:
A quick club 95% / 5% test,
Will Bitcoin reach $27k before the middle of the month?
Yes:
No:
Leave a yes or no only below!
Will Bitcoin reach $27k before the middle of the month?
Yes:
No:
Leave a yes or no only below!
Comment:
A lot of messages asking about lower lows, is back to $17k and lower etc coming? Folks if +/- $1k swings are making you nervous, you'll never make it the cycle top.
Here is the daily chart - can you see the ascending triangle?
And just for fun, here is the last 5 days on the 30 minute chart!
Here is the daily chart - can you see the ascending triangle?
And just for fun, here is the last 5 days on the 30 minute chart!
Comment:
Weekly stochastic RSI just recently crossed up 40 (red circles) following the strongest ever buy signal. It is remarkable the number of retail traders now looking to short this market after a 10% rally from $22k since the last update.
Change that bearish bias quickly before it turns into a huge pile of regret.
Change that bearish bias quickly before it turns into a huge pile of regret.
Comment:
What is about to happen next will probably take most people by surprise… and it’s all to do with those red circles you see on the 6-day chart below.
1) Price action rallies to the 20/21-week SMA (bull market support band). When price action is around here, the market will be on fire. Currently that level is around $27.3 to 27.5k. If you see price action above here one morning, switch off that bearish bias quickly.
2) Once (1) is confirmed, the surprise will happen. That is an explosive rally to the 50-week SMA (blue line), currently around $37.5k to $38k.
3) If (1) and (2) happens, price action will rally to the previous all time high.
4) IF price action finds support on $48k (never mind the all time high)… the $48k is of massive importance, if that happens then this idea will reach its target with a high degree of confidence. That’s all because of what history tells us on the log growth curve.
Ww
1) Price action rallies to the 20/21-week SMA (bull market support band). When price action is around here, the market will be on fire. Currently that level is around $27.3 to 27.5k. If you see price action above here one morning, switch off that bearish bias quickly.
2) Once (1) is confirmed, the surprise will happen. That is an explosive rally to the 50-week SMA (blue line), currently around $37.5k to $38k.
3) If (1) and (2) happens, price action will rally to the previous all time high.
4) IF price action finds support on $48k (never mind the all time high)… the $48k is of massive importance, if that happens then this idea will reach its target with a high degree of confidence. That’s all because of what history tells us on the log growth curve.
Ww
Comment:
While everyone is monster bearish... the 6hr chart is telling us Bitcoin has broken out of the ascending triangle and finding support on past resistance. The target, as measured from the flagpole is around $30k. Club 95% jaws are about to fall through the floor.
Are those every other day updates useful or annoying? Let me know below. PM messages all the time and this feels like the easiest way to inform.
Are those every other day updates useful or annoying? Let me know below. PM messages all the time and this feels like the easiest way to inform.
Comment:
Thanks for all the feedback. Will keep the every other updates frequent if there’s relevant info to post then this is where to find it.
One of the consistent messages that comes in without fail is the bear flags. “A new bear flag has printed, price will now collapse much harder than before.”
It is imperative the bear flag is drawn correctly, too many examples on trading view have confirmation bias, in my opinion. But that is understandable given the sentiment. On the daily chart below:
1) On the last bear flag (#3) price action broke out of the upper channel + backtested past resistance as support. A lot of the examples on the trading view ignore the first two candles bodies when drawing the bear flag, preferring the wicks. This is a no no. Wicks tell a story, bodies tell the facts.
2) The falling angle of rising price action in those bear flags is telling you buyers are not rushing into this space every time price action recovers. That’s exactly when you show interest, when the crowd gives up.
3) Lastly, support and resistance. Technical Analysis 101. Price action resistance breakout. That is fabulous news if you’re a bull watching those flags play out.
Someone sold over $6.4 billion worth of BTC this morning. Saylor was that you? Or perhaps a liquidation event. Someone share below if known please.
Ww
One of the consistent messages that comes in without fail is the bear flags. “A new bear flag has printed, price will now collapse much harder than before.”
It is imperative the bear flag is drawn correctly, too many examples on trading view have confirmation bias, in my opinion. But that is understandable given the sentiment. On the daily chart below:
1) On the last bear flag (#3) price action broke out of the upper channel + backtested past resistance as support. A lot of the examples on the trading view ignore the first two candles bodies when drawing the bear flag, preferring the wicks. This is a no no. Wicks tell a story, bodies tell the facts.
2) The falling angle of rising price action in those bear flags is telling you buyers are not rushing into this space every time price action recovers. That’s exactly when you show interest, when the crowd gives up.
3) Lastly, support and resistance. Technical Analysis 101. Price action resistance breakout. That is fabulous news if you’re a bull watching those flags play out.
Someone sold over $6.4 billion worth of BTC this morning. Saylor was that you? Or perhaps a liquidation event. Someone share below if known please.
Ww
Comment:
8 days ago a 30 minute chart was posted above just for fun when a strong buy signal printed. Price action shortly moved up by $2k.
Déjà vu all over again.
Déjà vu all over again.
Comment:
This 3-day is worth sharing. It is the same chart from yesterday with the addition of the Bollinger Band. Why is it interesting?
1) Price action is testing the Bollinger Band mean at the same time price action is backtesting the Bear flag breakout. Look left.
2) The Bollinger Band mouth is closing towards price action. This is telling you two things:
>> Current price action trend is weak.
>> A large move in price action is imminent.
Ww
1) Price action is testing the Bollinger Band mean at the same time price action is backtesting the Bear flag breakout. Look left.
2) The Bollinger Band mouth is closing towards price action. This is telling you two things:
>> Current price action trend is weak.
>> A large move in price action is imminent.
Ww
Comment:
Well a large move came, the band wasn't wrong! Now is this a bear trap? Or is price action now on the way to $10-12k as the internet seems to be screaming for?
$25k to $22k in 72 hours, impressive. What is fascinating about that drop is it was achieved by buyers entering the market at the $18k lows, not the sellers in the first drop off. Those sellers have already exited the market.
What’s happening? Nothing is happening, just healthy market behaviour. Two daily charts.
Trading 101 - support and resistance
On the 1-day chart below price action breaks out from diagonal and horizontal resistances. The correction falls to the golden ratio. Which is also past resistance.
Trading 102 - the trend.
Switching on the Heikin Ashi candles (because I’m interested in the trend.) Price action prints lower highs lower lows. However what is important is that trend has clearly broken resistance. I don’t know exactly when that back test confirms support, could be $21k, could be now on the golden ratio. It is not important. A close on Friday above $22.2k would be continued confirmation the 50-day SMA acts as support as previously (red circles).
Ww
$25k to $22k in 72 hours, impressive. What is fascinating about that drop is it was achieved by buyers entering the market at the $18k lows, not the sellers in the first drop off. Those sellers have already exited the market.
What’s happening? Nothing is happening, just healthy market behaviour. Two daily charts.
Trading 101 - support and resistance
On the 1-day chart below price action breaks out from diagonal and horizontal resistances. The correction falls to the golden ratio. Which is also past resistance.
Trading 102 - the trend.
Switching on the Heikin Ashi candles (because I’m interested in the trend.) Price action prints lower highs lower lows. However what is important is that trend has clearly broken resistance. I don’t know exactly when that back test confirms support, could be $21k, could be now on the golden ratio. It is not important. A close on Friday above $22.2k would be continued confirmation the 50-day SMA acts as support as previously (red circles).
Ww
Comment:
A ‘incredible buy’ signal has now printed on the 4hr chart. A 20% move to the upside should be expected.
Additionally price action is printing outside the Bollinger Band (Red circles). 90% of all price action prints around the mean. (Red/green line).
Additionally price action is printing outside the Bollinger Band (Red circles). 90% of all price action prints around the mean. (Red/green line).
Trade active:
** Hash ribbon alert ***
The famous hash ribbon indicator has printed. This tells you the miners are done capitulating.
Never in Bitcoins price action history has a false signalled printed.
The famous hash ribbon indicator has printed. This tells you the miners are done capitulating.
Never in Bitcoins price action history has a false signalled printed.
Comment:
A couple of updates…
First the weekly, those red boxes. They are the same, not adjusted them in any way. Just a clone. See the fractal in price action? Superb. Price action collapses from the same support, consolidates following the ‘buy’ signal. I don’t know what to expect, does the fractal continue? I don’t know. All that can be said, this is the first time ever in the history of Bitcoin price action that a ‘incredible buy’ signal printed on the weekly chart.
In the very term, what’s going to happen? A strong upward move is highly probable.
On the 4hr chart below the Bollinger Band is squeezing together indicating a large move is imminent. Latterly price action is trading within a falling wedge. A large breakout should be expected by August 24-25th.
Ww
First the weekly, those red boxes. They are the same, not adjusted them in any way. Just a clone. See the fractal in price action? Superb. Price action collapses from the same support, consolidates following the ‘buy’ signal. I don’t know what to expect, does the fractal continue? I don’t know. All that can be said, this is the first time ever in the history of Bitcoin price action that a ‘incredible buy’ signal printed on the weekly chart.
In the very term, what’s going to happen? A strong upward move is highly probable.
On the 4hr chart below the Bollinger Band is squeezing together indicating a large move is imminent. Latterly price action is trading within a falling wedge. A large breakout should be expected by August 24-25th.
Ww
Comment:
25th is here...
Day after day, nothing burger and nothing burger - is it about to change?
8hr chart below (although you can see this on the daily, it is very clear to see on this time frame).
1) Price action has corrected to the golden pocket.
2) The Bollinger Band is squeezing very tightly. The tighter it squeezes the stronger the move.
Have a feeling price action will be back in the mid-$30-35k in the not too distant future. Between this $18-25k bracket the market has done an excellent job of flushing out the flotsam.
Day after day, nothing burger and nothing burger - is it about to change?
8hr chart below (although you can see this on the daily, it is very clear to see on this time frame).
1) Price action has corrected to the golden pocket.
2) The Bollinger Band is squeezing very tightly. The tighter it squeezes the stronger the move.
Have a feeling price action will be back in the mid-$30-35k in the not too distant future. Between this $18-25k bracket the market has done an excellent job of flushing out the flotsam.
Comment:
Looks like price action is going to re-test the lows printed in June around late $18 / early $19k. This should print a good bullish divergence on the weekly one complete.
Comment:
Forget the above $18-19k targets. After some study... I've determined that is very unlikely.
A lot of messages today. Fear etc about price falling below $20k , then $17k, $13k, and beyond. Try and not be concerned. +/- $3k will very much seem like a rounding error a year from now.
The short answer: It is very improbable price action falls below $20k. i.e. -3% away currently.
The long answer:
The bottom was in at the time of publishing this idea. Sellers today are not the same sellers that sold down to the previous low, which when you think about it.. is incredible, 90% of folks that sold today sold at a loss since buying up from the low, now not $2k away. Amazing isn’t it?
How do I know the bottom is in? Really, after all the posts above?!
1) Pi-cycle bottom alert.
2) Hash ribbon
3) First ever weekly ‘incredible buy’ on the weekly chart.
The list goes on..
If the previous low was the bottom then where is the higher low going to print? Excellent question. Lets look left..
This was the last correction to the 200-week MA, January 2019. (For the beady eyed amongst you I’m ignoring March 2020 Black swan Covid event)
The events were:
1) ‘incredible buy’ printed.
2) ‘pi-cycle’ bottom alert prints.
3) Price action rallies and corrects.
4) Hash ribbon ‘buy’ signal prints.
5) Price action prints higher low on the 0.236 Fibonacci level.
January 2019
Fast forward to August.. Boom! Price action will print the next higher low on or around $20k, maybe $20.2k.
August 2022
Ww
A lot of messages today. Fear etc about price falling below $20k , then $17k, $13k, and beyond. Try and not be concerned. +/- $3k will very much seem like a rounding error a year from now.
The short answer: It is very improbable price action falls below $20k. i.e. -3% away currently.
The long answer:
The bottom was in at the time of publishing this idea. Sellers today are not the same sellers that sold down to the previous low, which when you think about it.. is incredible, 90% of folks that sold today sold at a loss since buying up from the low, now not $2k away. Amazing isn’t it?
How do I know the bottom is in? Really, after all the posts above?!
1) Pi-cycle bottom alert.
2) Hash ribbon
3) First ever weekly ‘incredible buy’ on the weekly chart.
The list goes on..
If the previous low was the bottom then where is the higher low going to print? Excellent question. Lets look left..
This was the last correction to the 200-week MA, January 2019. (For the beady eyed amongst you I’m ignoring March 2020 Black swan Covid event)
The events were:
1) ‘incredible buy’ printed.
2) ‘pi-cycle’ bottom alert prints.
3) Price action rallies and corrects.
4) Hash ribbon ‘buy’ signal prints.
5) Price action prints higher low on the 0.236 Fibonacci level.
January 2019
Fast forward to August.. Boom! Price action will print the next higher low on or around $20k, maybe $20.2k.
August 2022
Ww
Comment:
I don't know who this chap is... however it is the first time I've seen a Youtube video aline with the Elliot wave thesis discussed in this idea.
The market is about to enter a final wave 5 move, a stock market melt up, before an elongated bear market lasting up to 2-years.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9Y5_2Xy...
The market is about to enter a final wave 5 move, a stock market melt up, before an elongated bear market lasting up to 2-years.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9Y5_2Xy...
Comment:
** 10-day chart prints ‘great buy’ signal **
Whilst there’s no end of pushback below informing me of much lower price movements to come the charts keep on printing the opposite narrative. There is next to zero expectation of what is about to happen in the months ahead.
January 2019 was the last time a ‘great buy’ signal printed on this chart. A near 300% rally followed.
Whilst there’s no end of pushback below informing me of much lower price movements to come the charts keep on printing the opposite narrative. There is next to zero expectation of what is about to happen in the months ahead.
January 2019 was the last time a ‘great buy’ signal printed on this chart. A near 300% rally followed.
Comment:
A strong bullish divergence building on the 4hr chart...
Comment:
Everyone see the falling wedge? One way or another a big move should occur by September 15th.
Comment:
Very nice ‘W’ formation printing on the 4hr chart in the last week. I do wonder who the big seller is though, studying the on-chain data it is clear to see this is not retail sale volume. No doubt the truth will out in the coming weeks and months, retail is exhausted, miners are exhausted, who are you?!
See the lower supporting trend line?
The same line now zoomed out to the 2-week chart. Fascinating isn’t it?
See the lower supporting trend line?
The same line now zoomed out to the 2-week chart. Fascinating isn’t it?
Comment:
Ready for September? Statistically speaking the worst month of the year for Bitcoin. You thought it was bad before? Going to get a lot lot worse. $17k then $14k and then $12k. The bottom is no where near, we’ve got the Mt. Gox sell off coming, the FED rate rises, the dollar will continue to print new highs. And don’t forget that ‘War in Europe’ (WW looks out window.. what where?!). China is going to collapse. This is all I hear from the Youtubers and messages coming in. Even had a $6k target messaged to me. In ALL CAPS, so it must be true.
What are the facts? They be in the charts.. and the news couldn’t be clearer. 2-day charts below:
Is the market bottom in? Yes. Those IB signals on this time frame are not decorative.
Switching off the indicator.. price action has landed on the 0.786 Fibonacci level just as before when the IB signal printed in December 2018.
Moving averages, I try to avoid them for they tell me nothing of the future. However there is some use, look… the distance between the 2-day/200-day SMA (Red) and the 2-day/50-day SMA is the greatest it has ever been now exceeding the 2018 correction.
You must be wrong WW, it’s been greater? Looking left..
It is official, this is the most oversold Bitcoin has ever been in its short life. Now ask yourself, with everything that was said above, do you really believe the lower lows everyone is calling for is yet to come?
And for some fun.. If we take the candles printed after the 2018 correction from the 786 fib at the IB signal where SMA operation was greatest we get:
Ww
What are the facts? They be in the charts.. and the news couldn’t be clearer. 2-day charts below:
Is the market bottom in? Yes. Those IB signals on this time frame are not decorative.
Switching off the indicator.. price action has landed on the 0.786 Fibonacci level just as before when the IB signal printed in December 2018.
Moving averages, I try to avoid them for they tell me nothing of the future. However there is some use, look… the distance between the 2-day/200-day SMA (Red) and the 2-day/50-day SMA is the greatest it has ever been now exceeding the 2018 correction.
You must be wrong WW, it’s been greater? Looking left..
It is official, this is the most oversold Bitcoin has ever been in its short life. Now ask yourself, with everything that was said above, do you really believe the lower lows everyone is calling for is yet to come?
And for some fun.. If we take the candles printed after the 2018 correction from the 786 fib at the IB signal where SMA operation was greatest we get:
Ww
Comment:
Today’s interesting statistic - November 2020. That is the last month you could have bought Bitcoin and sold it at a profit today. Let that sink in, according to Glassnode the FOMO that led to the rush of buyers in 2021 are all selling at a loss today. Isn’t that incredible? The only sellers selling at a profit today are those from 2020 and earlier.
Comment:
The last comment turned out to be true! Over $90m worth of Bitcoin was sold in the last 48 hours from a Bitcoin wallet that has not seen any activity since 2013. Now that's Diamond hands. Or Mount Gox holdings set free.
Comment:
‘The $12-13k next bro’ messages are flooding in again.
At this time price action on the weekly candle bodies are breaking the June lows. Concerned? Not in the slightest.
There’s a massive weekly bullish divergence building, it can be seen following the money flow index (MFI). 9 oscillators are printing divergence at the moment, whether that remains at the weekly close, time will tell. The massive support at this time is around $17.5k.
If we zoom out a little further we can see how important those weekly divergencies were.
Zooming in a lot closer.. the 6hr chart. Falling wedge + breakout + backtest.
All good.
At this time price action on the weekly candle bodies are breaking the June lows. Concerned? Not in the slightest.
There’s a massive weekly bullish divergence building, it can be seen following the money flow index (MFI). 9 oscillators are printing divergence at the moment, whether that remains at the weekly close, time will tell. The massive support at this time is around $17.5k.
If we zoom out a little further we can see how important those weekly divergencies were.
Zooming in a lot closer.. the 6hr chart. Falling wedge + breakout + backtest.
All good.
Comment:
Bullish divergence prints with the money flow index on the daily chart, do you see it?
Comment:
If price action enters the bear flag instead of confirming it as resistance then we'll have ourselves a 'whipsaw'.
Look out for this confirmation over the coming days. If a 'Whipsaw' prints, it is amongst one of the move bullish signals you can have.
Look out for this confirmation over the coming days. If a 'Whipsaw' prints, it is amongst one of the move bullish signals you can have.
Comment:
Price action is now at the underside of the bear flag. It would be a surprise if emotional sellers did not step in to push price action back down to the $20k area, a lot of shorts were liquidated yesterday and they're desperate to make that money back.
Comment:
A couple of posts ago I mentioned the ‘Whipsaw’ pattern. This occurs when ‘pattern traders’ get caught short. The pattern appears to confirm and then suddenly reverses. It is an incredibly bullish or bearish signal, depending on your point of view.
The bear flag no.3 on the daily chart below was supposed to take price action to $12k as most of Youtube was calling for. Now price action came moved up to test the bear flag support as resistance. The resistance failed, there was just too much demand.
Looking on the 5hr chart price action has broken out of a rising wedge, the near term measured target is $24.5k. Price action at those levels would certainly confirm the ‘Whipsaw’ signal.
Lastly the weekly chart price action prints weekly bullish divergence.
The bear flag no.3 on the daily chart below was supposed to take price action to $12k as most of Youtube was calling for. Now price action came moved up to test the bear flag support as resistance. The resistance failed, there was just too much demand.
Looking on the 5hr chart price action has broken out of a rising wedge, the near term measured target is $24.5k. Price action at those levels would certainly confirm the ‘Whipsaw’ signal.
Lastly the weekly chart price action prints weekly bullish divergence.
Trade active:
** Highest number of bullish divergencies in Bitcoin’s price action history prints **
A huge move in price action is about to occur, circa 50%. It will take the market by complete surprise. But not you.
On the 3-day chart below the number of oscillators printing bullish divergence with price action hits ‘5’ for the first time ever. Those divergencies are measured over a 30 day period.
Would tell you something about the current status of the probability indicator signals printing, which are fantastic, but I've been warned not to share.
A huge move in price action is about to occur, circa 50%. It will take the market by complete surprise. But not you.
On the 3-day chart below the number of oscillators printing bullish divergence with price action hits ‘5’ for the first time ever. Those divergencies are measured over a 30 day period.
Would tell you something about the current status of the probability indicator signals printing, which are fantastic, but I've been warned not to share.
Comment:
The next move is a little over $23k. Hangs out there for a bit and then $30-32k area.
Comment:
The ‘$10-12k coming bro’ messages are back. To them I say, why not capitulate? You’ll feel a lot better. Can’t say how you’ll feel down the road, but that’s another story.
On the 10-day chart we can see price action squeezing into a very tight corner. I’m actually surprised to see price action this far into the wedge to be sure, a move all the way to $24k was it before correcting. The size of those moves are indicative of what’s to come. Technically speaking a move into a wedge breaks out 70% into the formation. The further is travels into the wedge beyond this point the more energetic the breakout.
On the 10-day chart we can see price action squeezing into a very tight corner. I’m actually surprised to see price action this far into the wedge to be sure, a move all the way to $24k was it before correcting. The size of those moves are indicative of what’s to come. Technically speaking a move into a wedge breaks out 70% into the formation. The further is travels into the wedge beyond this point the more energetic the breakout.
Comment:
Liking this observation by TradingShot
Comment:
On the market total 5-day chart below:
1) The NVT + HV flips green
2) Price action printed a higher low on the golden pocket on this transition.
You’ve got to go all the way back to March 2019 to see those two conditions.
1) The NVT + HV flips green
2) Price action printed a higher low on the golden pocket on this transition.
You’ve got to go all the way back to March 2019 to see those two conditions.
Comment:
July 3rd, the date this idea was published. Price action at that time was a little over $19k, just as it is today. This is what a double bottom looks like.
Been monitoring the amount of Bitcoin flowing into exchanges throughout the corse of September. And there's been a ton of it, mostly from legacy wallets and leveraged exchanges.
A prerequisite to signifiant moves up in the market is falling exchange inflows. This has been observed at the beginning of every bull market. Certainly seeing evidence of that at this time.
Been monitoring the amount of Bitcoin flowing into exchanges throughout the corse of September. And there's been a ton of it, mostly from legacy wallets and leveraged exchanges.
A prerequisite to signifiant moves up in the market is falling exchange inflows. This has been observed at the beginning of every bull market. Certainly seeing evidence of that at this time.
Comment:
PS: There's evidence emerging of a target adjustment to $140k. Will discuss why in the Patreon page.
Comment:
An alarm I had set from 2 years ago recently triggered. The alarm tells me the volume of Bitcoin traded is twice that of the crash in March 2020.
This is a huge volume bullish divergence. I don't know what is about to happen but'll not be boring!
This is a huge volume bullish divergence. I don't know what is about to happen but'll not be boring!
Comment:
It is incredible the number of sellers selling at current levels after price action continues to hold at current levels for almost 4 months in a row. Bitcoin has been more stable than the majority of fiat currencies over the last 4-months. True.
The original 1-week chart published with this idea is shown below. Has anything change? Nope. Nada, nothing, just accumulation.
There is a signifiant bullish divergence on the weekly that is clear for all to see.
When does this accumulation end?
Okay, going for a date here… By this date price action is going to see a monster move to the upside, towards the $31k area and will take most be surprise.
That date is the second half of this month. By the 2nd half of October price action should break out from its support/resistance, it has to. The breakout will be powerful. If this weekly candle closes Green at $19.5k+ then the previous weekly inverted hammer is confirmed.
The original 1-week chart published with this idea is shown below. Has anything change? Nope. Nada, nothing, just accumulation.
There is a signifiant bullish divergence on the weekly that is clear for all to see.
When does this accumulation end?
Okay, going for a date here… By this date price action is going to see a monster move to the upside, towards the $31k area and will take most be surprise.
That date is the second half of this month. By the 2nd half of October price action should break out from its support/resistance, it has to. The breakout will be powerful. If this weekly candle closes Green at $19.5k+ then the previous weekly inverted hammer is confirmed.
Comment:
9 months ago I had this comment:
'Wow it would be amazing to buy Bitcoin for under $20k - not gonna happen bro'
Today:
‘You’re too early, going to $12k’
Just had an alarm on the 2-week chart pop off. Something significant happened.
1) Stochastic RSI crossed up 20 (blue circles below). So? This is the longest period of time to pass since crossing down 80 following:
2) A strong buy signal (not shown)
3) The ‘pi-cycle’ bottom alert.
Still think the bottom is not in?
It is incredible to think, 3-months to the day when this idea was published price action is at the same level now as it was then. All that is happened over that period is a majority of investors have handed over their tokens to the few. The 10% extend their thanks to the 90%.
Ww
'Wow it would be amazing to buy Bitcoin for under $20k - not gonna happen bro'
Today:
‘You’re too early, going to $12k’
Just had an alarm on the 2-week chart pop off. Something significant happened.
1) Stochastic RSI crossed up 20 (blue circles below). So? This is the longest period of time to pass since crossing down 80 following:
2) A strong buy signal (not shown)
3) The ‘pi-cycle’ bottom alert.
Still think the bottom is not in?
It is incredible to think, 3-months to the day when this idea was published price action is at the same level now as it was then. All that is happened over that period is a majority of investors have handed over their tokens to the few. The 10% extend their thanks to the 90%.
Ww
Trade active:
2015. That was the last time so many oscillators printing bullish divergence with price action over a 3-month period on the 5-day chart. Don't waste this amazing opportunity.
Since this post was written price action has only dropped another $3.5k to print a lower low at $15.5k. This is a rounding error in the grand scheme of things to come.
5-day chart
Since this post was written price action has only dropped another $3.5k to print a lower low at $15.5k. This is a rounding error in the grand scheme of things to come.
5-day chart
Comment:
Continue / add to long positions from $19.7k
12hr
12hr
Comment:
After $20.5k is touched, it is off to the races. The weekly ribbon has just printed green (blue circles). Facts about this print: Once a strong buy signal has printed, the ribbon flips green price, then action will be in an uptrend for at least 6 months. That has been a fact of the weekly chart since ever.
The falling wedge breakout was textbook. Breakout with volume. There’s still some retail to wipe out in this wyckoff accumulation pattern, once complete the wedge target to $120k will follow. When does this happen? I’ve utterly no idea. Is probable it will happen? Highly.
Ww
The weekly
The falling wedge breakout was textbook. Breakout with volume. There’s still some retail to wipe out in this wyckoff accumulation pattern, once complete the wedge target to $120k will follow. When does this happen? I’ve utterly no idea. Is probable it will happen? Highly.
Ww
The weekly
Comment:
Is price action about to smash through the $25k resistance to $27k?
Everyone is bearish.
Everyone is bearish.
Comment:
A move to $25k should be expected over the coming days.
4hr chart
4hr chart
Comment:
Price action is now right now has fallen out of the bottom of the falling wedge on the above 4hr after reaching the apex.
If you see price action under $19k, back up the truck and fill it up. Price action will not remain under this level for anything length of time to speak of.
If you see price action under $19k, back up the truck and fill it up. Price action will not remain under this level for anything length of time to speak of.
Comment:
Is price action about to leap to $36k ??
Price action is squeezing between the bullish market support band (21-week SMA) and the 50-week SMA (blue). Notice how the 21-week SMA has flipped to green in colour, this means we're bullish.
IF the 50-week SMA resistance is broken... then price action has no resistance until $36k.
weekly chart
Price action is squeezing between the bullish market support band (21-week SMA) and the 50-week SMA (blue). Notice how the 21-week SMA has flipped to green in colour, this means we're bullish.
IF the 50-week SMA resistance is broken... then price action has no resistance until $36k.
weekly chart
Comment:
Despite the bears best efforts the 50-week SMA was punched through with volume. Bears selling for cheap your entry liquidity is needed.
Resistance at $36k (orange dotted line the GRM). Yes it may take some weeks, day traders collecting profits etc, but we are patient.
weekly
Resistance at $36k (orange dotted line the GRM). Yes it may take some weeks, day traders collecting profits etc, but we are patient.
weekly
Comment:
On the daily chart a pennant formation prints a breakout. Technically speaking this now forecasts a $40k target.
For the bulls, price action <$27.5k? Then this print is likely a fake-out.
For the bear waiting for $10k. Seriously? 😳
For the bulls, price action <$27.5k? Then this print is likely a fake-out.
For the bear waiting for $10k. Seriously? 😳
Comment:
So many messages asking about a correction or ‘when pullback?’ to sub $20k levels. That is not going to happen anymore. If you sold under those levels, then you have my thanks 🙏, the market wouldn’t be the same without you.
Sarcasm aside, price action has been stalling around $28k for a few weeks now. The black arrows on the weekly chart below inform us this behaviour is not unusual when crossing the log growth curve channels. The 28.5k resistance is right on entering the channel.
A rally to the upper end of the channel is probable once price action enters the channel beyond the $28.5k resistance, which will see price action rally to around $60k.
weekly chart
Sarcasm aside, price action has been stalling around $28k for a few weeks now. The black arrows on the weekly chart below inform us this behaviour is not unusual when crossing the log growth curve channels. The 28.5k resistance is right on entering the channel.
A rally to the upper end of the channel is probable once price action enters the channel beyond the $28.5k resistance, which will see price action rally to around $60k.
weekly chart
Comment:
** for pattern traders **
On the 2-day chart below price action has printed a candle body above resistance. IF today prints price action closing above $30k then the flagpole forecasts a move to the
39K
area, a 4x move more than the bears would like.
2-day chart
On the 2-day chart below price action has printed a candle body above resistance. IF today prints price action closing above $30k then the flagpole forecasts a move to the
39K
area, a 4x move more than the bears would like. 2-day chart
Comment:
The chart below is a 5-day chart. This chart has been opened for a while. An alarm just went off “That’s interesting”, I thought.. You leave a chart opened for years and never pay any attention until that alert triggers.
As you know I’m not fan of moving averages, they are lagging indicators for me, nonetheless I cannot ignore the symmetry before me.
Can you guess what those moving average are? The are not SMA, EMA, or even WMA (Weighted moving averages). They are RMA or Rolling Moving Averages (sometimes known as running MA). In a Simple Moving Average, the price data have an equal weight in the computation of the average. Also, the oldest price data are removed from the Moving Average when a new price is added to the computation. The Rolling Moving Average assigns a weight to the price data as the average is calculated, though less weight is assigned to each later price in the series.
From top to bottom you have:
5-day/100 RMA
5-day/200 RMA
5-day/400 RMA
Want you to look at the number ‘1’ and ‘2’ for some Monday morning facts of the charts.
When (1) AND (2) followed as support there was a minimum of a 50% increase in price action. Look left.
As with the very first chart in this idea there will be corrections in price action during Wave 5, the final wave for the crypto market. The first corrective wave, wave 2 will be..
Ww
As you know I’m not fan of moving averages, they are lagging indicators for me, nonetheless I cannot ignore the symmetry before me.
Can you guess what those moving average are? The are not SMA, EMA, or even WMA (Weighted moving averages). They are RMA or Rolling Moving Averages (sometimes known as running MA). In a Simple Moving Average, the price data have an equal weight in the computation of the average. Also, the oldest price data are removed from the Moving Average when a new price is added to the computation. The Rolling Moving Average assigns a weight to the price data as the average is calculated, though less weight is assigned to each later price in the series.
From top to bottom you have:
5-day/100 RMA
5-day/200 RMA
5-day/400 RMA
Want you to look at the number ‘1’ and ‘2’ for some Monday morning facts of the charts.
When (1) AND (2) followed as support there was a minimum of a 50% increase in price action. Look left.
As with the very first chart in this idea there will be corrections in price action during Wave 5, the final wave for the crypto market. The first corrective wave, wave 2 will be..
Ww
Comment:
A signal has recently printed on the weekly chart not seen since October 2020 and and March 2019, price action increased 400% and 200%, respectively following those times. Do you what it is?
Trade active:
** Close 31k swing trades **
High probability of a 50% move to upside.
High probability of a 50% move to upside.
Comment:
up 15% since last update. 40k is the next resistance.
Comment:
Price action must clear 30k before the end of the month. Otherwise this idea takes a pause for 12 to 18 months.. Shall explain why elsewhere..
The 48k idea remains unaffected for the moment.
The 48k idea remains unaffected for the moment.
Comment:
Expecting a huge move in price action, sooner than you think.
Comment:
The 4hr chart at this moment.. sellers keep providing opportunities to open longs.
Trade active:
Quite possibly the most important two candles to print in 2023.
These are two week charts below. Have been tracking them for a while.
2-week chart
Why important?
GRM support has just confirmed on the 2-week chart. (The yellow dotted line)
So? Look left. The previous tests and confirmations are shown on the zoomed out 2-week chart below.
This current print in 2023 has the most resemblance with 2015.
These are two week charts below. Have been tracking them for a while.
2-week chart
Why important?
GRM support has just confirmed on the 2-week chart. (The yellow dotted line)
So? Look left. The previous tests and confirmations are shown on the zoomed out 2-week chart below.
This current print in 2023 has the most resemblance with 2015.
Comment:
12hrs later...
Don't FOMO... I'm sure sellers will provide the umpteenth chance. Possibly. Maybe...
Don't FOMO... I'm sure sellers will provide the umpteenth chance. Possibly. Maybe...
Comment:
Wait for Sell off Monday to finish before entering long positions. 29k must first be tested as support before continuing higher.
Comment:
Since July of last year this pattern has been well documented throughout this idea. Still remains contested from messages all over despite the flag confirmation.
Monthly
Monthly
Comment:
Price action has crossed the rubicon and into the bear flag. Unexpected.. sellers really have left the chat.
Comment:
Since sellers threw in the towel there has been little resistance to stop ascending price action.
The only sellers going forward are the buyers that took long positions around the time this idea was published at 18k.
The next resistance is between 48 and 50k.
If you're still waiting for 10k.. well you never know, you just keep waiting.
Weekly
The only sellers going forward are the buyers that took long positions around the time this idea was published at 18k.
The next resistance is between 48 and 50k.
If you're still waiting for 10k.. well you never know, you just keep waiting.
Weekly
Comment:
There are bears still commenting below for a 10k and below Bitcoin.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztVMib1T...
Are you serious?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztVMib1T...
Are you serious?
Comment:
For the 2nd time in price action history of Bitcoin a bullish engulfing candle prints on the 3-month chart. The 2017 bar extension takes price action to the target exactly. Whether that happens or not is not what this is saying, however.
2024 will be anything but boring.
3-month
2024 will be anything but boring.
3-month
Comment:
Over the last couple of months a number of messages have been received asking for my opinion of the 5.3 Theory from Steve at Crypto Crew University.
Have written a public post here:
patreon.com/posts/98094906?pr=true
Long story short, I've been unable to disprove the theory.
Have written a public post here:
patreon.com/posts/98094906?pr=true
Long story short, I've been unable to disprove the theory.
Trade active:
The Whales extend their thanks to retail liquidations for liquidity provision at 62-63k for long orders.
Trade active:
Jawbones will shatter as they hit the ground with this next move in price action.
Daily chart
Daily chart
BTC
bc1q2eckdzh0q8vsd7swcc8et6ze7s99khhxyl7zwy
Weblink: www.patreon.com/withoutworries
Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR
bc1q2eckdzh0q8vsd7swcc8et6ze7s99khhxyl7zwy
Weblink: www.patreon.com/withoutworries
Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR
Where price is bottom?
Keep going….
Stop trying to time market!
No one knows where the bottom is. Yet a few have messaged asking exactly that.
On the 2-day chart below price action is focusing into a tight area within the falling wedge with very little room for manoeuvre. When you see a break to the right of the orange line, get long. Price action rallies to $48k rather quickly after that, look left.
The green vertical lines are ‘market bottoms’ indicators.
The Green moving average is the 300-week MA. Price action has never broken it. Currently around $17k and climbing. There's a few sellers out there still begging for the life to be squeezed out of them, you might get lucky holding a limit order open around these levels.
The ‘incredible buy’ signal is conditional (red circles), and has yet to confirm. When it confirms the label will appear on the chart.
I’ll make this idea ‘trade active’ one confirmation is there, if I remember.
Ww