Bitcoin to $48k by summer of 2023

This idea follows what happens after the 31k idea target was met, albeit briefly. A number of developments print on the above weekly chart, could spend an hour talking about. In summary:

The 100-week EMA confirms a candle body print as support. This is incredibly bullish. At no point throughout price action history did a bull run not follow after this fact following a significant period below the EMA. Look left.

The 120k idea is unaffected by this idea. However nothing goes up in a straight line, there are always corrections along the way, this is healthy market structure. Will this move to 48k be healthy? Don’t know. The current move in price action has been energetic to say the least. However facts of the chart remain.

Why 48k ??

This is a fact, not my opinion. When price action printed a weekly candle body on or above the 100-week EMA price action rallied to the Fibonacci 0.786 as measured from the previous market top to the market bottom. This has occurred on every upward break of the 100-week EMA throughout price action history.

Some might argue the market bottom is not yet in. That’s fair. However a buy signal printed on the weekly. That’s good enough for me, never had one fail.

Throughout the history of Bitcoin a confirmation of support on the 100-week EMA has resulted in a significant rally to the 0.786 Fibonacci level. A 20-50% correction follows. What type of correction will follow? Will know nearer the time.

Following the correction from 48k the 100-120k target shall be met. However as time passes there is argument for that target to be lifted. This is a result of the log growth curve increasing with time, but that’s another story.

Is it possible price action corrects to 10k as the short sellers are calling for? Sure.
Is it probable? No.

A buy from <29k is excellent.

Ww

Type: Trade
Risk: < 6%
Time: 4 months
Return: 70%

Comment:

Already had a few messages regarding this idea. Remember <29k is the long entry. Unlikely to fall below <28k. It will be the headrest feeling in the world to be a buyer at those levels.

Comment:

There you go, below 29k. Tell me below how difficult it now is to be a buyer?

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Always nice to have Steve amongst the followers, he asked to share this..

youtu.be/9H-77I0u-iI?t=740

Trade active:

Safe to go long again from here.

Comment:

PS: if you're a trader (I'm not) you can keep a long order open around $24.5k for a wick. On the main chart above look left, previous candle body prints usually saw wicks to past resistance. That would not be unusual. However on the weekly chart it is clear, once price action finds support on the EMA it is onwards and upwards.

Trade active:

Current sell off complete.

A Glassnode statistic that left my jaw on the floor. From the recent run to 31k the folks that bought around that area, are you ready for this... 75% have now sold! 75%!! What are they thinking? Emotions are a money killer.

90% of people do not make money in these markets yet the continue to fill the pockets of the 10%, I'm not complaining.. but you normally do not see that statistic play our in such a short space of time.

Comment:

Digging into the Glassnode data a little further (I'm a data nerd).. The ~75% addresses that bought Bitcoin did so almost 2 weeks ago, that had to be north of 30k. Of that 75%... 40%+ sold in the last 5 days!! That is something else. Absolutely astonishing.

Don't be this person... get a strategy people.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRXdxiot...

Comment:

That was an impressive hourly candle, right on the 30k. Re-load at 28.4k

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As per last update dips below $28.4k should be entered long. Should sellers / leveraged traders liquidating themselves offer the opportunity, grab it.

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Well done if you caught price action under 28.4k, can't say for certain it will happen again in the near future who knows.. calling all sellers, coins for cheap?

Comment:

Same drill as before, any liquidation events pushing pricing action below 28k, grab it.

Comment:

Over the next couple of days GRM support confirms or it fails. Some one remind me to check...

Trade active:

Happy to go out on a limb here..

** GRM support confirmed **

The next move has a high probability of being an upward move similar to that which occurred between March 10th until the 20th. Price action should calm down after crossing the 40k mark.

Still waiting 10k? Well keep waiting.. you never know!

Comment:

27400 is support, let sellers fill limit orders between now and then.

Trade active:

Monster amount of support on GRM. Price action will become more exciting once the bull flag breakout confirms.

3-day chart

Comment:

GRM support failed after 29 days of confirmation. This length of confirmation is only matched by the period from August 2019 when price action lost the 10k support and collapsed to 6.5k.

Comment:

Price action must reestablish 27.5k for GRM support confirmation. Should that be something you see in the days ahead, be long. Long like Donkey Kong.

Trade active:

price action reestablishes 27.5k

Comment:

If you missed out on the move, don't FOMO. Wait for a re-test of 27.5k. Price action will usually return to past resistance for a support test. Or you can just go full FOMO like the majority, 100-120k is the market top for this run therefore what difference is +/- 3k?

Trade active:

The 2nd bull flag prints a clear breakout with 40k projected target. Expect a pull back at this level before continuation to target.

If you're a bull, do nothing. No sell signal = no action.
If you're bear waiting for 10k, well you just hang in there.. you never know.

Comment:

PS: Past resistance has still not tested as support. Currently the 27.5k to 28.5k area. Don't FOMO, let the market come to you.

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A lot of messages on the above comment. Be patient. Monday is usually selling day, if there's no pullback by Wednesday it will probably not happen at all.

Comment:

Hopefully you took advantages of the pullback from last Monday's sellers. Should candles start closing above 31k (past resistance), then expect a move to 40k, the next resistance.

If you're bullish on the market, do nothing, be patient. Just don't hold ETH.
If you're a bearish still waiting for 10k... You hang in there, you never know.

Comment:

Candles are struggling to close above the 31k area. A test of 28.5k is very probable in the near term before the uptrend continues.

Comment:

Remember, 28.5k if you can get it. That's when the seller weakness stops.

Trade active:

Boom 29k... Am buying. Limit order open... feed me ;-)

Comment:

Order filled, thank you whoever you are.

Comment:

GRM support confirmed. 1st time since March 10th @ 20k.

Trade active:

Support confirmed. Good to go.. upwards and onwards from 29.5k

Comment:

A 20% move to 35k should be expected. Do not know 'when', however it is probable. A strong positive divergence between price action and the oscillators has not occurred since the negative divergence of early July.

Trade active:

The move to 35k remain very much in play despite the sentiment. An incredibly strong signal has now printed.

18hr

Comment:

Feedback suggests conflation between this idea and the 10k idea is creating a lot of confusion.

In Technical Analysis we must consider both the Bull and the Bear scenarios. Introducing personal bias does not help. Always approach with balance.

For the bears:
31 to 32k is the only number worth mentioning between the two points of view. If a strong rejection is seen from this area, the bear flag 10k idea confirms.

For the bulls:
A break up of the 31-32k area with a back test of support will see this idea validate.

Action right now? Simples, wait for confirmation as written above. This is an utter no mans land at this time.

Trade active:

$6k until target!

Comment:

Ready for the jump to 48k?

It is amusing at this time tradingview.com is full of "Short" ideas.
95% of participants lose money in this market. These statistics don't write themselves.

Daily chart

Comment:

Almost there.
Interesting observation today on this chart, will say elsewhere.
.

Trade closed: target reached