The price broke out of the bottoming triangle and correction trendline that apparently was significant, and since then up 100%.
We are now at a key level, the 50% retrace.
Bitcoin is now also above its bull market trendline. Which matters to some people.
If we get close to 9200 this could be the top of this bull trend and a retrace will happen. I already posted short ideas, now I am just waiting for the explosion to slow down. Would probably retrace fast the first third or half / maybe to 0.382 on linear, then either keep going up, or go down but slooooowly in ages. Would also post a long idea on a pullback - that bottoms.
If the price goes above 12k (around 0.75 retrace), the probability of ~ 3000 to be the bottom will be very high.
Dumb money got excited because "it kinda looks like 2014 and 2015 bottom" but I will repeat myself once more it is stupid, and now we lost correlation anyway. In 2015 the price did not rally that much from the bottom. So what now?
The previous retraces in this bear market and the possible future one (from zoomed in to zoomed out fractals):
And for fun, because we want to have some fun too ^^
I will not miss the bear market, shorting and waiting 3 months to make 20% (on my position) and paying 5% in funding.
Your opportunities to change your mind and get on board are getting slimmer by the day. You don't see it as a golden opportunity because we are very early. Will there be corrections along the way? Yes. But the higher we go, the less likely we are to see Bitcoin below 5k again.
MrRenev
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@kardia, "Your opportunities to change your mind and get on board are getting slimmer by the day." So in other words you are saying this rally is soon over? Totally agree.
Based on 200 years and backtesting over tens of thousands of cases, this rally is soon over. AT LEAST a big retrace is expected, and probably the resumption of the higher TF trend.
I was expecting Bitcoin to do this for over a year, because this is how human emotions work. I will be stubborn and not change my mind because something I saw coming years ahead happened.
Zig Zag correction probably. New leg down to 2k or 1k or something we will see.
While you rode a bull trap on ponzi/usd you missed out on Oil. I am not chained to this 1 market.
kardia
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@MrRenev, There is no proof Bitcoin is a ponzi. It seems the only people who are saying this are banksters and those who believe in the banking system, which is highly corrupt, by the way. Even if Bitcoin proves to be a ponzi as you say, it would be nothing compared to the evil things banks have done to people for decades. But I don't think Bitcoin is a ponzi. Bitcoin is here to stay, whether you like it or not. It will correct, but it is highly unlikely you will ever see it at the prices you are calling. It's not even reasonable to think it could go down that far. It appears there is too much interest in it at this point for that to happen. It's not just crypto enthusiasts in this space now but large financial institutions and big companies. I think you are bitter because you didn't get in early enough or have lost a lot of money trying to short it at the wrong time. Or maybe you really do believe it is a ponzi and are trying to expose it. If that is the case, then where is your proof?
dRends35
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Thank you
Je_Buurman
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@TogetherWeAccumulate, I'm really impressed .. that's the most annoying chart-spam i've seen in ages. Not only just copy-pasting a link to your idea on 8 top-authors comment section (like most chart spammers do) but also dumping the whole text with it.
I'm also good at copy-pasting stuff
tradingview.com/house-rules/ section: Public Chat & Comments
point 9
Don't chart-spam (posting the same chart over and over again without any changes).
and point 11
No idea dumping. Don't post published ideas to chat unless it supports the conversation between yourself and other chat visitors.
Would be really great if the mods could finally come up with something to put a stop to that idea-dumping, it really annoyingly clutters the discussions, for what ? someone ego ? (look how great my charts are)
MrRenev
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@Je_Buurman, Oh he is chart spamming. I thought he was just here to amuse us with his claims of "Bitcoin is going to save the human race from a giant asteroid" (according to elon musk he wants to send people to mars in case this happens why is this big fraud so similar to the btc ponzi?).
All markets will follow Bitcoin because it will be the greatest thing ever. Ye I am sure.
I don't mind tbh, he is funny.
Je_Buurman
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@MrRenev, well, apparently he can do both at the same time
his account is about 1 year old, his twitter account is from december 2017, so i'm pretty confident next he will tell us all about his 20+ years of experience in the (financial)market(s)
He is most definitely NOT a spoiled millennial who thinks he's the next Warren Buffet just because he had the luck to make a few bucks during 2017 ..
And don't you dare talking dirty about Elon, he is a hero like Edison (curious who's going to find the comparison ;) )
Back to your Chart's - (we should keep it ontopic every once in a while)
I see you use Fibonacci mixed with percentage retrace
So i'm a bit baflled with the "at key level" since (in fibonacci) 0.5 isn't a thing. Please explain
MrRenev
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@Je_Buurman, 50% retrace is pretty important. Ye these fib numbers have self fulfilling prophecy so thye ar eimportant, but also general area like the top 20% is a very shallow retrace etc.
0.5 well it's a typical retrace for a correction/wave B.
I don't have the exact numbers AND Bitcoin does not have a big sample size to work with but typically and in the few BTC cases, it goes around 50%. 12k was a 55% retrace and it topped there before making a new leg down (C) the same size as A right? In % 20k to 6k was -70%, then 11.7k to 3.2k -70% too. This is also very common. Same size or 1.618~ or ~2.618 (2.618 correction thought good luck with bull market).
Right now on BTC we can see there are all the bottom chasers, under 50% it is still the bottom half, then past that it is less the bottom, are there trend followers? Will new people want to join and not miss out? Or just bottom chasers so the pump will stop and back to bear market?
Usually "back to normal" has typically a retrace greater than 50%, more like 75% to 99%, because the bull/bear market is still super strong in people's mind, and then comes C wave/wave 3, that is either the same size as A/1 (can be smaller), sometimes bigger, often when it is bigger it is an impulse 12345 and the trend is usually in that direction with corrections being some kind of ABC combo.
Bitcoin is pretty dumb and predictable with 0 fundamentals I would not be surprised it just makes a big retrace in the 0.5-0.618 range just because it's pure gambler emotion. And till now Bitcoin just moves in fib levels... Literally 0 fundamentals driving the market.
Still this is not enough for me. I am hoping 8200 was not the top that we will never see again, but I won't short till I see a double top or some kind of ending diagonal / bearish divergence. Just another wave up but much weaker than last one(s).
Je_Buurman
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@MrRenev, Interesting
Just one more thing ...
ATH sits at $19739.33 bottom at $3123.72 so it spans $16615.61 divided by 2 is 8307.80half
how come you chart says 50% at $7832 ?