As usual, the initial symmetrical triangle broke down, with a bear trap, suggesting that the ABC retracement would still happen; then the patterns changed to a larger symmetrical triangle that broke up as it should have (simmetrical triangles are usually regarded as consolidation phase/continuation patterns). The break up consisted in a 12345 minor impulse wave, which was then stopped by the double top at $9700-$9800 resistance zone. As a remark, the volume was lower than expected and the 5th wave was truncated, and in my opinion we have now a minor ABC correction. If the next impulse wave will not be able to cross the $9800 level with high volume, we are less bullish than we might think; a bear reversal could happen.
Comment
⋅
As a remark, the maxima from April 24-25 and these from May 4 and their corresponding RSI maximas are making a subtle bearish divergence. So take care! May the 4th be with you! :D
Comment
⋅
We might go sideways for a while, but it also seems we are building a descending triangle targeting $9400; that would complete the minor wave c. The bearish MACD cross also suggests that. Wave c would need 3 more subwaves tho. Also noteworthy that even if bullish volume is not high, bulls don't give up easily, so even if the triangle completes, we might have high volatility after. We should also note the large volume of longs building up recently on BTCUSDLONGS chart. Some people are too trustful IMO. If we break down and that volume of longs get liquidated by stop losses, that might trigger an avalanche FOMO down. Another reason to wait before going long.
Comment
⋅
Bulls were fighting a little more; therefore we are now actually building either a pennant (which is very bullish) or an ascending wedge (which is bearish). There are multiple resistances in the $9800 area so confirmation must wait. If it breaks up with volume, there's a good opportunity to go long; but take care of the possible ascending wedge and the bearish divergence!
Thanks for the sober look. There are way too many that are hell bent to take BTC one way or another based on their desires, not the charts. Thumbs up.
floring67
⋅
@Jeff_Cryptopop, thanks for your appreciation. The truth is that the situation is way too similar to the peaks of February 20th and March 5th. All traders were very bullish at the time, but the double top turned into a crash. We are at lower price level than then, resistance is huge above, volume is smaller; so it's a very high probability that it happens again. I'd be prepared to sell quickly!
Most profit should have been taken already; anyway the low up volume suggests we are in a taking profit stage; whales are selling. Really hard to say if they'll be taking us up or down; patterns can fail, they often did recently; this symmetrical triangle was almost an exception.
In my opinion, even if almost anybody else turned bullish, sooner or later we will have to break down several supports once again, at least down to $7000, before we really turn bullish long term. During the whole history of bitcoin, the bottom trend line has been touched periodically.
Jeff_Cryptopop
⋅
@floring67, Actually I just took almost all of my BTC profit up from $6600. I had been considering a limit trade on part of it but I'm wary because it's just hard to tell where it goes on the short term. $10300 if it breaks?
floring67
⋅
@Jeff_Cryptopop, $10308 and $10424 major resistances; I don't think it can go through without retracement; and really need up volume to go there. If we get there without volume, fast crash guaranteed.
Actually I wouldn't go long now if we don't cross the double top level, it's too risky. Perhaps only if we confirm a support again.