floring67

floring67 Updated 

Long time since my dip prediction, it is finally here. I didn't have too much time to trade lately, not to say posting any idea, but here it is. We had a nasty impulse down breaking all supports. Fib circles tried to sustain us but failed; most probably due to the BCH-BSV fork in the conditions of the bear market. What I think is that we are now trying to find...

floring67 Updated 

During my holidays, BTC has been following on the daily chart the smaller 1.0 fib circle from the circle patterns that I traced before I left. Not so much of a rally, that I didn't take coz walking in the mountains sounded better. Now it looks we are approaching to a conclusion. We are going to hit the big 1.618 circle in about 1 day. My first guess (orange...

floring67 Updated 

Normally, according to the stochastic RSI we should be in a bull cycle on the daily chart. However I've been watching this inverted cup & handle pattern since a while, and this scenario might play out. The $6000 support seems unable to hold anymore, it wasn't so solid recently. Currently, the pattern looks like a head & shoulders with a tiny right shoulder; I...

floring67 Updated 

This clearly requires a new idea. I've traced here two Fib retracement levels sets, a bigger one for what I've marked waves 3-4-5 and a smaller one for what I marked as wave 5. This pitchfork that I've traced some time ago approaches the bottom, which should coincide to Fib level 0.5 on the big set and 1.618 on the small set. Take into account that maybe the...

floring67 Updated 

As I mentioned in my last 2 updates of the previous idea, the inverse H&S was confirmed and it reached its target near $7500. I've deleted some circles and traced a new one and the new Fib level to see it better. The waves pattern has become more clear, however several possible continuations can be seen. The impulse wave was actually a third wave, inside a more...

floring67 Updated 

Let's first take a look on the 2h chart. I think we've just built a diagonal minor 12345 uptrend wave pattern. We are still in the uptrend channel created by waves 2 and 3, a little steeper than the older and larger uptrend channel. This diagonal wave pattern pushed us out of the long term downtrend channel with the very first pump, just after a higher low at...

floring67 Updated 

As I've said before, the wave patterns are not obvious in this bear cycle. However looking at the bigger picture, one could see that there is a plausible 3-3-3 repeating pattern in all time frames. So this could be modeled by two successive WXY patterns. The only thing that's obvious is that the bear flags created by these patterns have the right target every...

floring67 Updated 

Probably the generally accepted wave count wasn't wrong. My previous post was only a speculative idea, if it was true, then BTC has reached its bottom with the 5th wave at $6100 or something. But looking at the daily chart, we might have had something else. Probably the first 5 waves were a downtrend leading diagonal pattern, wave 1 being the extended one, then a...

floring67 Updated 

I was looking at the daily time frame and had a revelation. WHAT IF the extended wave was the first one, not the third, and isn't going to be the 5th? Yes, it's possible, especially in commodities markets! I've tried to trace it as so, and voila! calculating the price fall ratio between wave 3 and wave 1 I found...guess what? 0.786! it's a Fib ratio and very...

floring67 Updated 

Back after some busy days. So, he 5th downtrend wave was shortened; so was the 3rd uptrend wave after. What is going to happen now? Possibly the 12345 downtrend wave was in fact an ABC pattern and now we are in a XYZ thing going sideways and building a range; but I think it's less likely, so I didn't draw that. More likely would be a diagonal expansion (green...

floring67 Updated 

We've built a large nbear flag in a nasty long 4th wave, and now retraced to wave 5 and broke down all supports until $8185. Now we're having what I think a subwave retracement. As you can see, all quakes are happening at the borders of the Fib circles of wave 4, and right now it is not an exception. In this point we also have converging the $8185 support, the...

floring67 Updated 

In this moment we are building a bear pennant; this could be the 4th wave of a 12345 pattern, rather than a bullish reversal after a ABC correction. If it's true, then we are going to test the recent bottom uptrend line (green) as support, and probably bounce at 0.786 Fib level (about $7400). Everything is targeting there: the green trendline, the $7362 support...

floring67 Updated 

Wave B has ended and we retraced brutally at 0.382 Fib level, with a volume unseen since May the 3rd. We've already exited from the large cyan uptrend channel and we're now testing the blue recent maxima downtrend line together with the $9098 support line. However the zone $8900-9000 proved to be a pretty strong support, so wave C might stop there. Therefore I see...

floring67 Updated 

So, the bears won for now and we went down according to my bearish scenario; even I was surprised how well my 12345 impulse pattern fitted my initial drawing :) Therefore I decided to look back and search for explanations. And I now say: WHAT IF the 5th major wave that would take us to $10500 or above it's not about to come, and we've just finished the 5th wave at...

floring67 Updated 

We retraced down as I predicted, finished the 3rd minor wave and retraced for a new wave at about $9300. In this moment we are facing a dilemma where two scenarios are equally possible. The bullish one is that we finished a 4th major wave and now started the 5th, heading to $10500 (in cyan). But, because the waves were not very clear recently, we might have as...

floring67 Updated 

It seems that my initial evaluation of the impulse wave were just subwaves of wave 1 in a larger 12345 pattern. But this wave pattern has created an ascending wedge, and wave 5 seems to end here at $9900 or not much further. This time the expected correction should happen, for several reasons. First, the ascending wedge is a bearish pattern. Second, we still have...

floring67 Updated 

As usual, the initial symmetrical triangle broke down, with a bear trap, suggesting that the ABC retracement would still happen; then the patterns changed to a larger symmetrical triangle that broke up as it should have (simmetrical triangles are usually regarded as consolidation phase/continuation patterns). The break up consisted in a 12345 minor impulse wave,...

floring67 Updated 

Making abstraction on the noise pattern created by pumps and dumps for price manipulation, it seems that some sense can be made out of tracing some Elliott waves patterns. I've tried to imagine all kind of subwaves and I got to this. It pretty fits the bear flag pattern that's forming too, and also the triangle target I was previously talking about. So maybe the C...