Were most of wave counts wrong? we shall see!

I was looking at the daily time frame and had a revelation. WHAT IF the extended wave was the first one, not the third, and isn't going to be the 5th? Yes, it's possible, especially in commodities markets!
I've tried to trace it as so, and voila! calculating the price fall ratio between wave 3 and wave 1 I found...guess what? 0.786! it's a Fib ratio and very plausible for extended wave 1!
So what if we're not going to complicate things with wxy subwaves and all? If it is so, we are far from having done wave 5!!! just doing and maybe quite finishing wave 4! In this case, wave 5 price shift should be either equal to wave 3's, 0.786 of wave1 (most probable), or 0.618 of wave 1. So the target should be either $6006 or $6411.
I am not saying that I'm 100% sure, but I think there are big chances that it's true.
Normally it should go up after that, big double bottom, but I can't tell you that for sure.

Comment:

I should add that the big movements in subwaves might have created confusion in many TA's, including mine. This new finding looks however more clear than any patterns I've been drawing before in this downtrend movement.
Maybe what I now think to be wave 4 will move up to $7700 as the circles are trying to tell us; but it looks like this wave will be shortened at the red resistance line.
This will be my last update until Monday, I'm going in the mountains :)
Take care!

Comment:

I am finally back; still a little busy but here is the update. The 5th ave scenario is not quite dead yet; just the wave 4 was a little longer, so the target of the 5th shouldn't normally go lower than $6200. I think if it confirms, the odds would be to shorten the 5th wave at $6400-6600. See how it looks now on the daily chart.

Comment:

There was a bear trap; the things look now weakly bullish. IF the 5th wave will happen, it will be diagonal, so I wouldn't expect it to go lower than $6900.
However due to the numerous traps and manipulations, patterns are distorted and prediction is hard to make. One thing I notice is that the support of the grey uptrend line is hard to break, as well as the resistance of the blue downtrend line, so we will most likely range between the two lines until we are close enough to their meeting point such as the market takes a decision; and the current $7600-7700 prices are just in the middle of the range.

Comment:

I didn't want to dismiss my initial target because I was looking at an uncertain becoming cup&handle structure on the 2h chart. Meanwhile, that structure transformed into a forming head & shoulders (light green) where the right shoulder was a smaller H&S itself. Therefore we went down we needed to. So I was right, the 5th wave scenario was still in place.

Comment:

...and now we need to go a little lower, the target of the bigger H&S is $7000. IF the $7216 support won't hold. But be aware, if we touch the grey uptrend line, we will have formed a HUGE inverted cup & handle structure (look at the daily!) targeting $5100!!!