You may have noticed published ideas on tradingview.com are now calling for price action to take one direction and that direction is down. Don’t take my word for it, click on BTCUSD pair to the bottom right of this screen and then ‘ideas’ then ‘Recent’. A significant number of analysts are “short” at this time.
The number of short ideas should not be surprising, there is tens of millions of dollars in short interest around the 74-75k area waiting to be liquidated.
Two falling wedge patterns are shown on the above 1-day chart. All too easily these patterns produce false breakouts. How do you verify? Verification is made in a similar way to the recently published “How to void or validate a head and shoulders pattern” (idea linked below). We achieve validation by observing the movements of the oscillators.
1) A cross up of 20 indicates momentum is returning to the market. Look left.
2) Momentum oscillators cycle from above 80 to below 20 the majority of the time between 20 to 30 days. Look left and confirm, don’t take my word for it! At this time 26 days have passed since Stochastic RSI was above 80.
3) Considering points (1) and (2) the falling wedge now has a high probability of confirming the continued uptrend.
4) The wedge target area may be forecast by measuring the flagpole height (black circles). You can observe how accurate the first wedge target was forecast using this process. The forecast for the 2nd wedge is shown, towards the 115k area.
5) The 115k target area was first forecast from the “Is Bitcoin about to rally to 110-120k” idea (linked below) in July 2022 as price action was around 18k using the same method described above.
6) When the target is reached the bull market is over. There will be calls from all quarters informing us how price action is now going to 250k and beyond. Ignore it. The next macro long opportunity will be in 2026.
Is it possible price action continues correcting from the new all time high? Sure. Is it probable? No
Ww
How to void or validate a head and shoulders pattern
Is Bitcoin about to rally to 110-120k
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With the month of March at a close an important development on the chart is realised. Which is?
Past resistance confirms support on past resistance with a monthly candle close on the previous market top.
If you're a bear, you need to see price action drop below FWB:65K tonight to print the Gravestone DOJI / Spinning top candle everyone was talking about only 2 weeks ago.
If you're a market bull, stay long, the next move over the coming 60 to 90 days is likely to be energetic. Plan for it.
monthly
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Long from 61k, the wedge support.
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Yes, for the time being this trade remains active. There's been a few messages asking.
$47 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin was sold this afternoon, hard to comprehend.
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On April 3rd it was written "Long from 61k, the wedge support"
Did you get it?!
It is possible price action may return there over the coming week, however, it is clear a lot of support exists at this level with the speed at which it was bought up.
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As before, A long from 61k is excellent. A long from 58k is amazing.
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A per last update, a long from 58k is amazing, hope you got it. I doubt we see it again.
Sellers pushed price action down to the back of the wedge in the top chart, which confirmed support perfectly. The support was also the 21-week EMA. Look left on the chart below, Déjà vu all over again.
@without_worries, excellent TA for predicting top of bull market. From beginning of year BTC ETF funds bought 27 billion $ of BTC, among them BlackRock is biggest - they bought 13.3 billion $ of BTC ( 10.000 billion $ total under management) and Fidelity is 3. biggest in world - they bought 6.9 billion $ BTC. In same time Grayscale sold about 300.000 BTC ( they still have 348.000 BTC). It would be interesting to see prediction for model of Bitcoin price whithout selling pressure of Grayscale ( they will sell all GBTC in about 4 months) if BTC ETF-s continu to buy with these same dinamics. These are "boys from WallStreet" and they are not playing to lose.... Thank you for analysis and best regards.
without_worries
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@dubk, Glad you like the overview. One thing that might not be anticipated by the ETF crowds is the speed at which the ETFs can sell as well as buy. When the market goes into reversal the ETFs will be one of the biggest sell side pressures.
SimpleTradezz
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@dubk, top of bull market? you must be joking the bull market hasnt even started yet just a pre-halvening correction XD
without_worries
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@SimpleTradezz, The top of the bull market is a lot closer than most think. The bull market started in November of 2022 of last year at 17k Bitcoin. To say the bull market hasn't even started is to throw caution to the wind. The bull market has months left in it, months.
dubk
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@SimpleTradezz, sir, I am not joking - agree with mr. ww analysys. We have very bad macro situation ( FED is failing with inflation in USA - biggest market in world). Geopolitical situation is even worse - war In Ukraine is in strongest phase - has big impact on EU economy. Tensions in Middle East are on highest level with possible full scale war ( lets hope it will not escalate). Russia ( 3-rd biggest oil producer in world) is under sanctions. 4 bigest oil producers ( from 8 bigest in world ) are from Middle East ( Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, UAE). Oil is 40% in CPI - can you imagine what will full scale war in Middle East cause to world economy...
StewySongs
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🔥🔥🔥
erogens
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Ur simply ..the best!!!TY!
dubk
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reasons for some bearish action today: The digital assets industry received an utter shock on Monday as Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD) received a Wells Notice from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Reports reveal that the crypto exchange got the warning letter on May 4. Robinhood stands strong.
without_worries
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@dubk, There will always be a reason whether up or down. The truth however, that will always belong to what we read on the chart.
crypto_without_fud
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@without_worries The chart is an after affect, a result of events and not the other way around.