Disclaimer:If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
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Consensio: S EMA < M EMA > P > L EMA
Patterns: Phase 7 Hyperwave | A&E | Bear Channel Horizontals: S: $3,729 | R: $3,823 Trendline: Parabolic SAR: W: $4,230 | D: $4,180 Futures Curve: Backwardation Candlestick Analysis: Dragonfly doji Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.027% BTCUSDSHORTS: Broke down horizontal support but appears to be finding support from daily R9 TD’ Sequential: G1 Ichimoku Cloud:. Bullish TK Cross | Bullish Kumo Twist | Today’s selloff found support at the top of the cloud, and closed above Kijun-Sen - very interesting! Relative Strength Index: Amazing how quickly it can go from overbought to middle of the range. Supporting above 50 is very interesting! Average Directional Index: ADX continues to trend with +DI > -DI (although they are converging) Price Action: 24h: -0.2% | 14d: +5.6% | 1m: +11% Bollinger Bands: Is bullish, selloff closed above MA - very interesting! Stochastic Oscillator: Is trying to make bullish crossover on daily. Weekly bullish was confirmed by breaking above 20.
Summary: I cannot remember the last time when the price of Bitcoin has been this interesting. It has me so close to opening a trade in either direction. In I said I would be looking to go long if we breakthrough $3,922 and said I would be ready to change my disposition if price remained below the 4 & 9 EMA’s while getting a bearish cross and broke the daily Parabolic SAR. This is a great example of fickle trading can and should be. This is also a great example of why to wait for the candle to close. Today the price broke the daily SAR and got a bearish cross with the 4 & 9 EMA’s with the price below and I entered a stop order to long BTCM19 at $3,802 with a stop at $3,574.
After that sharp selloff occurred we quickly rebounded and made a very bullish close with a dragonfly doji above very important areas (50 EMA, Kijun-Sen, and Bollinger Band MA). That was very bullish as far as I am concerned and wreaks of a shakeout before a breakout. If am wrong then hopefully my stop order will not trigger. If I am right then I expect price to blow right through that area which is exactly when / where I like placing stop market orders on high liquidity exchanges.
Under the ‘trendline’ line item above there is a chart that I am watching closely. If we can breakthrough the top of that bear channel then I will be calling for $5,800. If we can’t then I will be calling for a return to Phase 1 ($1,160) by Q2 2019.
does breaking out of the top of the bear channel mean to you that 1k prices (or maybe just a new low in general) cant happen in general? or just that its going to take longer until we will arrive there?
Sawcruhteez
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@moviestar, No. Breaking out of the bear channel just gives me a ~$6,000 target for the top of the dcb wouldn't do anything to change my confidence in the 1K target. If we break above $6,000 and spend a few weeks above that area then I will start to reconsider. I do think that the higher we bounce the more it will prolong the bear market.
moviestar
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@Sawcruhteez, regarding prolonging, tone vays said something interesting in one of his stream some time ago with him refering to the notion that time spent in a bear market is to some extent independent from price level. meaning that there is a certain time spent min and max and that something like a stronger dcb could "waste" more time in higher price ranges of the bear market so that we wouldnt spent as much time in lower price ranges and maybe not even get as low as we would otherwise with a weak/rather non-existing dcb.
Sawcruhteez
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@moviestar, Interesting input. Could see that being the case if this wasn't phase 7 of a hyperwave. Because those are so likely to return to Phase 1 I believe that the more dead cat bounces we get the longer it will prolong the bear market. If we capitulated from $6,000 straight to $1,000 then I would be calling for a bottom already. If we do not bounce from here then I am highly confident the next stop will be $1,000 and if we do bounce then it could takes months to revisit $3,000 and maybe even a year to make final descent.