There was heavy resistance on the monthly Ichimoku Cloud as the base and conversion line were at the same spot. Being rejected, there is a high probability, that the price drops and the cross of the two lines is being confirmed, a bearish signal. Furthermore we have the cloud, which is extremely narrow and therefore easy to break-through. The lagging span (green lagging line) on the left crossed the priced, which is typically a bearish sign. Falling through price with force would be more significant, but still a good signal.
Not on the chart: - We closed below the 10 SMA and 21 EMA. - The weekly doesn't look good. We need to see how it closes tonight. Closing below 8750-8800 would be really bearish. - The Total2 chart for Altcoins got heavily rejected in the monthly chart with a gravestone doji. I expect at least another 30 Billion to leave the market.
That being said, with or without halving I believe Bitcoin is going to have a hard year, confluencing with the current situation in the world and the struggling markets.
we also closed below the 200EMA on the 1D chart...today is the retest and i think if we close below we could expect a sharp decline...maybe 30% before a bounce..although im betting on 7600 as bounce territory if drop like a stone....watching 4h RSI for potential entry.
Thierry88
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@bitcointrader3764, You are right about the 1D 200 EMA. I was betting on the 7600$ area too and so do some friends. This makes me think about the target though
bitcointrader3764
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@Thierry88, ive been thinking 7600 to 9100 to possible 4500-4700 being the bottom of the long term trend....just cant get round everybody assuming a repeat of the prehalving rocket...seems like the perfect excuse for whales to cash out on the order books and then send the market into capitulation phase...im using the 4h 12ema as resistance at the mo....the 2hr was good when the market was rising...too good...the whole run above the the down channel looked too perfect and to me a manufactured attempt to inspire fomo...hey...but what do i know...i sat it out...and missed out...lol...if we close today below 8600 we should...and say that lightly see at least a week of downs...im looking at 12th-14th for possible bounce entry...
Thierry88
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@bitcointrader3764, I was thinking the same about the pre-halving story. The chart looks super bad on the monthly. This thing is going to fall like a stone. And that sell-off wasn't caused by retail investors, just crazy impressive what is happening right now.
bitcointrader3764
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@Thierry88, ...not one for predictions ...but kind of happy i got that one right!!..im looking at a possible backtest of 1352USD that occured on 6th March 2017....never retested and the enviroment could see it happen in a matter of days...or weeks....stocks have a way to go and corona reporting in the states is yet to look serious....but it will. Combine the lack of healthcare with poverty and overcrowding of major cities...not a good combination...happy to be in cash...although made scalps on last two days (first trades in 11 months!) so feeling pretty happy.