I am a believer in crypto and bullish in the long term but for once, there are actual fundamentals involved in the movement of crypto assets!
My first aim when the market started to correct was a simple ABC correction. I have that at 7300ish. Of course there is also the H&S in play that could takes to 5900 - 6000. Also feasible.
These are technical target to monitor. Then there are the fundamentals. As I awoke, The London FTSE has opened 8% down and expect the Dow to follow. The economic effects of Corona virus are still being calculated but just taking what is happening in Italy and transposing it to the rest of Europe ...and things do not look good. So whilst I expect to see slowdowns and mini bounces due to technicals I can forsee a much, much lower price for BTC as an economic reality.
The safe haven arguement is a joke. Especially for a new asset class that can lose 90% of it value and has no intrinsic value apart from production costs to the increasingly centralized mining industry. Not quite what was envisaged I suspect and probably the source of the pumps and hype we have been seeing.
When the gold price drops below the cost of production, gold mines close down until they are profitable again.
The biggest plus going for BTC and other cryptos is the limited supply. This however requires wholesale adoption by the masses...not the hoarding by the few and susequent fleecing of the masses before they have had a chance to accept this new form of asset and become comfortable with it.
So all in all we live in interesting times and whilst the hails of a big inverted H&S at 7600 are being shouted about...remember it would negate the targets for the other H&S that we are currently falling from, that has been completed. My guess is that if stocks continue to plummet...so will crypto and as the analysts scramble to understand the economic impact of what was a looming recession before Corona virus...2007/8 might start to look like a walk in the park.
My first aim when the market started to correct was a simple ABC correction. I have that at 7300ish. Of course there is also the H&S in play that could takes to 5900 - 6000. Also feasible.
These are technical target to monitor. Then there are the fundamentals. As I awoke, The London FTSE has opened 8% down and expect the Dow to follow. The economic effects of Corona virus are still being calculated but just taking what is happening in Italy and transposing it to the rest of Europe ...and things do not look good. So whilst I expect to see slowdowns and mini bounces due to technicals I can forsee a much, much lower price for BTC as an economic reality.
The safe haven arguement is a joke. Especially for a new asset class that can lose 90% of it value and has no intrinsic value apart from production costs to the increasingly centralized mining industry. Not quite what was envisaged I suspect and probably the source of the pumps and hype we have been seeing.
When the gold price drops below the cost of production, gold mines close down until they are profitable again.
The biggest plus going for BTC and other cryptos is the limited supply. This however requires wholesale adoption by the masses...not the hoarding by the few and susequent fleecing of the masses before they have had a chance to accept this new form of asset and become comfortable with it.
So all in all we live in interesting times and whilst the hails of a big inverted H&S at 7600 are being shouted about...remember it would negate the targets for the other H&S that we are currently falling from, that has been completed. My guess is that if stocks continue to plummet...so will crypto and as the analysts scramble to understand the economic impact of what was a looming recession before Corona virus...2007/8 might start to look like a walk in the park.