They are marked on chart. using camarilla and CPR and pivot magnet retrace logic. Price could run up to the Monthly developing just prior or following close first. However its already getting up there. either way be prepared
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essentially what I expect it to do is what it did today. opened up far and then immediately drove down to test the daily pivot. Except I expect it coming on both monthly and yearly scale. algos are the real market runners. in all markets
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frame of reference here is camarilla monthly on the last two months. Price runs from pivot/l3 to H3. grinds between H3 and H4. Breaks for H5. closes and then retraces to new pivot. where many may buy the dip. what many maybe are NOT looking at.... is that there is a yearly pivot coming in a lot steeper. and the last 7 years in Q1 that pivot has been retraced to in both directions. Even when the MTgox fud hit.... it dove all the way from down below upwards just to strike it
Trade active
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can set partial stops in profit in case pop up and re entry opportunity
Thank you for you analysis, which seems sensible, although I don't trade using pivots. I'm wondering if the change in the attitudes and constitution of BTC's shareholder base, nearly all of which are longer term holders, will make the prior years' pivot analysis less applicable, though perhaps not totally inapplicable. The buyers of all new BTC are PYPL and Graystone, and they cannot use algos since their customers own the shares.
Gunslinger2005
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@theworldinscents, Well. I tune out such thoughts. I try to remain loyal to the pivots and history. However, I will say this... I think that firms handling those clients' money also have trade desks, and analysts and will of course sell off portions to pay gains on taxes as they will not do it out of pocket. and in terms of the futures market... while btc is scarce it is not invincible from wild price actions. like when oil fell to 0 dollars per barrel this year there was still just as much oil. and nobody was giving oil out for free but the price did that regardless. When it comes to the topic of grayscale and others having so much btc (which is only 2-3%) it must be said that they cannot fully be relied on to hold forever. They are in the business of making them and their clients money. Some of their clients may have different priorities or goals. And if push comes to shove and the market does have some downturn they will be the first to know about it and would not inform retail. And fundamentally speaking prices go up with buying. yet can fall from gravity and their own weight. When everyone is on one side of a trade and buying slows or stops... the reaction is usually pretty dramatic. Rome was not built in a day and neither are healthy charts. As for the yearly pivot.. I don't know. but if we can go up 10k in a month. I see no reason why it couldn't go down the same. I try to remain non-biased
SIGPokerKing
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@Gunslinger2005, Thanks for your thoughts. Yes, BTC is volatile to say the least, and anything can happen, esp with panic fomo on the way down. The crude oil situation was a result of people not keeping their eye on the ball wrt production and underestimating the negative impact of covid on refining crude needs, and it's unlikely, tho clearly not impossible, that it could occur again. Also, a lot of the top-performing stocks and funds like ARK, MRNA an IPO have been getting hit over the past week, and I expect that in 1Q we'll see some type of overall pullback unless the downdrafts in some sectors are made up by theaters and cruise lines lol..
Gunslinger2005
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@theworldinscents, here is over a year of monthly pivot tests though. and if grayscale has been buying and accumulating. It certainly hasn't stopped bitcoin from magnetically testing new monthly pivots
SIGPokerKing
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@Gunslinger2005, Thanks! Does the pivot change much at today's $31+k price? There's gotta be a big correction coming.
cryador
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Hi. I heard the term CPR in a video a minute ago, googled it, and it brought me here. I´m new to BTC, bought my first less than 30 days ago. But this post of yours sounds important, because I did buy the dip and purchased 0.75 @ U$ 28.000. Can you translate to me what you just said? Whats going on latter today at the strike of midnight? Are you saying BTC is going to drop even more than 28K? Many thanks for your patience!
Gunslinger2005
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@cryador, well you might want to dig deeper. CPR just means central pivot range. generally speaking its a place to rebuy or reshort. to follow trending markets. what I am doing is a little bit more in depth in taking a look at how algos responds to opening far away from newly formed pivots in their timeframes. generally speaking on a historical scale.... they seem to revert to them at the beginning of new timeframes. I cannot tell you what to do with your trade. nor can I tell you the exact moments algos respond and do what they do. sorry
alexarom25
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Good analysis
filagotnochill
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I like your strategy. it minimizes bias and emotions.