Will inflation get under control? This is a question that spins on my mind.
This chart clears the picture.
On the top of the equation we have "long-term inflation", calculated by GOLD*PPIACO On the bottom we have the true equity value, calculated by modified-yields*SPX
modified-yields = US10Y+1+1/US10Y. It follows the standard US10Y chart.
This chart tells us something alarming, that no matter the politics, we are inside a massive bull-flag.
This chart below, measures the long-term inflation compared to total-money-earned-from-bonds. Another golden bull-flag appears, which found support on the 1980 peak. Commodities could over-perform any attempt we have at stopping the inflationary pressures.
Any upwards move on yields, will have multiplicative increase in commodity cost.
Take a look at SPY_Master's ideas regarding bull-flags. He is the inspiration of the GOLD*PPIACO chart. He basically used GOLD*DBC as a good measure of inflation. I replaced DBC with PPIACO for longer-term analysis.
Now I will explain how and why these charts work.
On the top we have GOLD*PPIACO. Gold is measured in dollars, while PPIACO not exactly... So on the numerator there is only one occurence of dollar value.
M2SL moves exponentially compared to PPIACO. So PPIACO by itself doesn't get inflated by money printing.
On the denominator, on the one chart we have (mod-yields)*SPX, which is again measured in dollars, but SPX is transformed for the "true" value of dollar. I thank SPY_Master once again for the inspiration. He invented the SPX/(1/US10Y) = SPX*US10Y chart.
On the other chart we basically have the total money made from bonds. Total money printed is transformed for their cost. In reality this denominator measures the true value of all money printed. So it is once again normalized.
Finally, look at this chart which compares equities with long-term inflation.
Any upwards move on equities, will have multiplicative increase in commodity cost.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
PS. I am not a trader, these charts are not "tradeable". In fact, they could give someone second thoughts on investing. I don't have second thoughts on investing. These charts help us understand that sometimes, things are not as straightforward as we would hope.
PS2. To anyone who hasn't played Half-Life 2, Father Grigori is the guardian of a city called Ravenholm. We don't go there anymore.
PS3. My name implies that I am a priest of sorts, I unofficially could be one. Officially, I am not a priest. I am in love with how nature (and God) shows up in the most amazing of places. These golden flags are not random... Nothing is random. For example, look at this incredibly accurate chart.
PS4. Please don't fill this comment section with arguments about faith and God, if you believe in one (or many) or if you don't believe in one (or many). These kinds of conversations tend to go up in flames. Please keep the peace.
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PS5. With me and the 3 people who liked this idea (I thank them) we could easily play a game of poker. We would certainly be making more "wealth" that way, than by buying options/derivatives in a market that is about to collapse.
PS6. For the 3 of you, I would like to explain a little further the PS3 charts, and what conclusions we can get. First of all, this chart calculates the following: How much more "valuable" equities get compared to currency. In a sense, it shows that the economy specifically after 1980 got all-in-equities and all-out-bonds. Everyone believed equities have worth, and that bonds don't. This relationship was restricted inside the four rays I drew. "My-No1-favorite-trendline" is the upper ceiling of the relationship after 1980. It describes that the balance between lowering yields, bubbling equities and QE has a ceiling. And one ceiling is this trendline. "My-No2-favorite-trendline" is basically the support. In 2021 we were in a post-pandemic mode, when everyone wanted more. But there was no more. So the chart made a fakeout, and now we are below all support. This means in the years to come, bonds will take the place of equities. Bonds may not completely replace equities, but they come in a new fashion.
PS7. Before anyone says that I cry because I didn't get many likes, I have an answer. Two of my ideas got in editor's picks with many likes. So I have lived through the "happiness" of being popular. I have realized that my favorite ideas (this is my all-time favorite believe it or not) and the most head-scratching ideas are not popular. It is either because many don't find them interesting, or because for some "weird" reason, my ideas don't show up in searches. At any rate, I don't really care what happens, and I don't want to know.
PS8. I am tired of reading online on these desperate advice of going rich in stock market by trading options. On how with trading fake stuff, you can make more fake stuff. And magically all your problems will get solved. How you can work 1h per day, and have the relationship of your dreams, and the money of your dreams. Do note that even if you get rich accumulating dollars, you are still on the loser's side. The winners are the kings of the world, the richest men who want more riches, and the daily human completely dependent on the united rulers of the world.
PS9. Let's get my account banned!
PS10. No more PS.
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PS11. I lied, here is one more. All of this shouldn't discourage you from finding the way to "break the system". I am obsessed in finding the real nature behind the fog, the reality they desperately try to hide. From an investment point of view, the PPIACO*GOLD chart means the following: The numerator means the investments that produce resources. The denominator on the one chart is the value of equities. On the other chart is the value of money printed. This ratio may be telling us that the real gainers are the commodity producers. The wealth gained by them is bull-flagging compared to everyone else. In a sense, massive wealth transfer/accumulation to the biggest (precious) resources producers of the world. Oil production, Silicone, Lithium, Farmland.
PS12. In charts we should always multiply things together, and rarely add. Multiplication in log-charts is addition. So GOLD*PPIACO is just "adding" them.
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I hope you get it. This bull-flag shows us why we are at war on resources.
Question: Will the biggest wealth-transfer event we've lived through be blamed on war? Or is war going to be the catalyst for such an event to occur? Which one is the cause and which one the effect?
Which came first: The chicken or the egg?
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Maybe the bubble hasn't filled... yet. Pattern taken from The Great Depression. Let The Roaring 20's begin! -Elon Musk (pseudo-prophet)
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Is this a valid flag? Does it have any meaning? For some reason, we cannot perform calculations on USOIL before 1983. PPIACO can be considered a USOIL replacement (since oil is a main ingredient for production cost increase)
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Could it be that, maybe, just maybe that the inflation chart can be analyzed like everything else?
Please read from Amazon book named ”Nostradamus predictions and World war in the year 2025”. Coincidentally it gives exact half year lenght for WW3 and it matches beatifully to your earlier chart where stocks took deep decline in the hirst half of 2025. I really believe you have some truths behind these charts.
akikostas
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@PIIBOINS, Damn... I had no idea about all of this... Thank you so much for this information! I am glad you liked these charts!!!
PIIBOINS
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@akikostas, You are welcome, I have always been fascinated about the Nostradamus' forecasts. Of course this books is just one person interpreting Nostradamus very cryptic text from the 1600's. For those who won't read the whole book, here is short summary: on 1.1.25 Russia strikes with mini-submarine's nuke strikes to France's harbour cities + some other places. Forces will enter to the EU-area but none of these are "official" Russia's forces. The WW3 will end in the summer 2025 and Putin will be replaced in August 2025. World will be without Internet from May 2025 to August 2025. I was just amazed that Akikostas' earlier chart was similar to what I read from that book (that H1 2025 is sharp drop in indices). All the indices will drop appr. -80% but will get it all back and more in summer 2025. Altogether could be total tinhat-material but interesting altogether.
@akikostas, hi I just leave last comment to this: if in start of the 2024 Putin is given "lifetime presidency" in Russia then you should read both of the Ken Bist's books from Amazon, he wrote those in March 2021 and was spot on about the Russia's invasion to Ukraine (what happened one year after the book were published).
TheCryptagon
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Nice chart!
inv_market09
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looooook 💵💸🙂
InvestingScope
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Strong setup. We outline our expectations below:
akikostas
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Seek the real value in life, don't become obsessed hoarding fake digital stuff. Even if it is solid gold. When you pass from this world, you cannot take anything with you. The only thing that will remain is the love you gave to others the years you were on this earth.
akikostas
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@akikostas, This depends on if you believe that living inside a computer is the way to live forever. In the digital world you can leave this biological world and enter a digital world, with you surrounded by the digital stuff you hoarded throughout your life. For that, there is no advice I can give.