In a fortunate turn of events, inflation has calmed. For equity bulls, more good news. Yield rates have probably peaked. To stop inflation, you must cool down a HOT economy. Overconsumption tends to increase prices. In an unfortunate (?) turn of events however, the markets haven't calmed down. Some charts suggest that the markets haven't felt at all the...
-Resistance trendline unbroken -Bearish divergence on the Wolfpack -"Overbought" on the RSI -Curling price action
There are two kinds of inflation, the normal one and the dangerous one. Printing money creates inflation. The kind however which is not dangerous to the foundation of the economy. With money printing, currency loses value and prices react accordingly. Nobody gets wealthy from money printing, and in a sense, "nobody" gets poor. By nobody I mean the economy as an...
Money printing has been a double-edged sword. One one hand ample liquidity helped the exponential productivity of the economy, on the other hand inflation hit hard. In periods of stagflation like the 1970s, immense inflation created an impenetrable ceiling for equities. In periods of extreme deflation (2010s), equities bubbled. It is interesting that in this...
Historical data can be hard to compare against modern ones. The longer back an analyst goes, the better the results of their analysis. 100 years of yield rate analysis may seem enough... 5000 years of interest rates however is a whole new story. Money has been as cheap as it has been for the past 5000 years. Incredible numbers... Source: ...
This is a followup to this year-on-year inflation chart idea posted back in June 2022: The YoY US Inflation rate has been on a trend of going down since it tested the 1.414 PCZ of the Bearish Butterfly above, but recently we have seen the MoM rate slow its descent and form a bottoming pattern with MACD Hidden Bullish Divergence at the 200-Month SMA and now we...
Us inflation is at multi year resistance.it shows inflation has already peaked. once it will start coming down markets will rally to the upside. Will markets makes new ath sooner or later ? Well who knows?? Ask yourself that question. Will fed stop rising rates for now? Very unlikely. Will fed could consider lowering the basis points ? Most likely. Will fed do it...
The point of TradingView (and being a human/trader in general) is to learn from your mistakes. I did make some mistakes. Perhaps this idea by itself is another mistake. But I cannot do any different. I must speak out about what I see. For the past year I tried to understand the pressures that are pushing prices higher, equities lower. It is important in analysis...
Ordinarily, I wouldn't contemplate them... but these *are* extraordinary times. - G-Man A bank just went broke, oops! It was certainly something we expected. With money literally burning, these kinds of events are expected. So what might be ahead of us? The rate-hike schedule went relatively smooth sailing until now. But just last week something changed... When...
Oh boy, many of them problems... Sometimes there are cycles, some cycles are shorter than others. In chart analysis, we are familiar when we analyze trends. Either short term or long term. The economy does not function only in trends. There are cycles. The most common / important of cycles is the yearly one. Unfortunately, cyclic patterns may prove tricky to...
As the famous billionaire said in December 2021 (elon), the "prophet" who is apparently loved and trusted by everyone. I don't know why... Disclaimer, SPX by itself will probably not follow this path, things are quite complex as you will soon find out. First of all, Recession is not something simple. Everyone talks about it, but it is not always meaningful. This...
The market has chosen a way to profit throughout all these years. This is the end of this way, QE lead us here... in this dead end. Equities was the "gold" of the time that passed. Now this is changing... If you read until the end of this idea, you will realize that a lot is changing. I will briefly analyze this chart and what it tells us. This is the ratio of...
Just a short update for today. It is important, so it deserves an idea on its own. For the first time since 2019, the FED is now officially giving money into the system. What could this mean for the US economy? Are they sensing weakness or is this just a response to the recent banking crises? Now let's look at the history of bailouts. Price made a...
Unemployment is tricky. You just cannot announce high unemployment. The political damage is too much to take. But unfortunately, the time comes when unemployment just increases... Every sane person would want the economy to remain calm for as long as possible. This is not sinister or bad. After all, it is in the duty of Governments and Central Banks to keep our...
Every major crash in modern history came after rate hikes completed. Either during the plateau or during the first cuts. No bulls can explain how we're going to avoid that fate this time. We hiked twice as fast as 2007 and 2018 hikes, yet somehow there's gonna be a soft landing? Yeah right LOL It's already looking like a broadening wedge like 2000; and about to...
I have posted about this chart before, but I wanted to show it more clearly this time. Above we see SPX, the standard chart. Below we see a custom index I invented, which is VVIX/VIX. It is a neat way to make sense of the chaotic nature of VIX. To clear things out, I have hidden both charts and instead I show an indicator called WLSMA. It is tremendously helpful...
The anxious moment when your investment goes through a period of slowdown or drop. When everything is good, everyone is happy. Nobody thinks twice when a market is growing. It's at that point of the first lower-low, when an investor loses their sleep. And it can be suffering when insomnia is prolonged. The 2022 Recession will be remembered as the most confusing...
SPX vs Inflation is a chart I explained in the following idea. While this chart showed incredible golden-ratio behavior, there are some periods which stand out. The smooth dance of the ratio throughout the last 100 years, has some quirks (the red ellipses). These periods are not random, they all feature a bubble behavior. It is clear as day that in 1996 the...