In both 08 crisis & pandemic crash, small caps consistently going up for several months were the proof that the bears were done.
That has not happened yet for this recession! Notice small caps are at best going sideways, & starting to trend further down, while ^RU50 Mega caps (like XLG) think the worst is behind them & Bulls saying don't miss the party.
But it's not the end of the Bear market. If Main street is still struggling, & we know & see it is all around us, then Wall street is just having a minor rally that will smack them back to reality soon enough.
Momentum doesn't lie, so watch the Volume & trends!
Thanks for letting me know about this. I agree with your thoughts completely. Small-caps seem to be the canary in the coal mine (warning that it's not back to long-term bull uptrends). The only thing we have to watch out for is a bear rally that squeezes higher than anyone expects with April bullish seasonality.
The monthly chart sure adds a helpful perspective