roelds

roelds

Besides those from previous idea, also: BTC_SOPR hits 1.01 after consistently below 1 during Bear market ibb.co 111 SMA starts positive uptrend during Bear market, on 1D ibb.co MVRV-Z hits .2 after hits -.2, on 1D (1 week later) ibb.co Puell hits .75 after being in green zone, on 1D ibb.co

roelds

Week of Jan 16 2023: end of Bear & start of Bull NRPL-USD has first significant green uptick after consistent downtrend ibb.co CVD has big uptick TRIX starts positive uptrend BOP has big uptick ibb.co

roelds

In both 08 crisis & pandemic crash, small caps consistently going up for several months were the proof that the bears were done. That has not happened yet for this recession! Notice small caps are at best going sideways, & starting to trend further down, while ^RU50 Mega caps (like XLG) think the worst is behind them & Bulls saying don't miss the party. But it's...

roelds

Bulls have been shouting ALL last year, that the Bear market is over. It's fine. Everything is fine. Don't think about hyperinflation incoming, or the everything crash around the corner, or credit default swaps going vertical, or multiple banks insolvency, or dollar threatened as global currency, or Fed rates still rising all this year, or layoffs increasing, or...

roelds

With so many calling market bottoms already, I want to show you how we are not there yet, with this simple 3 Month (1 Quarter) chart. We can see, via SPX & VIX, for the bottom in last 2 recessions (2020 & 2008), that quarter had: VIX over 40 (not equal to, since Oct 08 quarter was exactly 40 & not yet bottom) capitulation from significant SPX selling Volume (2020...

roelds

Looking at weekly QQQ: In the last recession, after confirming it via Sep 2 EMA crossing, we saw within 2 months of that crossing a very nice bull rally week. But it's a trap! We can see it was a trap by waiting for the week to play out & notice that BBPower was very weak, as shown via yellow circles. The bulls now are fatigued from the bears & want to get over...

roelds

A great 2x inverse ETN for this recession is MJIN, which is opposite of MJXL. By early morning of June 8, SMG reported less expected FY22 earnings, sales & profits. This largely affects weed ETFs due to heavy use of their products for growing, as we can see the spike here shortly after the news broke. In this case, due to rising inflation across the economy, most...

roelds

Here is great high interest rate hedge. While I wanted to use USINTR to compare, it didn't look obvious for easy analysis, so I used USIRYY instead since both are greatly correlated. The Fed keeps talking like a dove but acting like a hawk: like promising soft landings from transitory inflation, yet suddenly choosing rare 75 bps increase, even though they...

roelds

It took about 3.5 years, from the last top in late 2007, to cross all relevant moving averages in early 2011, for us to confirm all the market bottoms were in. During that time, more than half of the market was lost in its last bottom compared to its last top. Expect same or worse in this 2022 recession, as more things will pop in this everything bubble. The...

roelds

KMLM is showing great YTD return in this bear market, with much less volatility than buying SPXS or SQQQ instead. EMA has barely dipped & BBPower is very weak, so the good news is this is nicely on sale now. Recession is here now for about a half year so far, & will need at least another year to recover, so ignore the small rally in the market ... it's not the...

roelds

GOLD & BTC have been chopping & correlating for about a month, but may now be diverging. Monitor closely & look for trend signals, whether up or down.

roelds

If you missed buying earlier in year, now is great discount on OIL. Inflation & stagflation will be here for at least another full year, so the trend will still continue up. When gas price lowers significantly at the pump, then the party is over. Not sooner.

roelds

SPXL shows it's been in down trend (bear market) since Jan 24, where we see: both EMA crossing & BBP very negative. Then we sell & buy SPXS. We won't see bottom until: both EMA cross again & BBP very positive. Be patient & wait for bears to finish eating.

roelds

OMBIX isn't here to show price level similar to 2008 recession, but OWNS shows enough for low income households. They are always the first in foreclosure.

roelds

We are already now in, yet another recession, similar to 2008. Consumer sentiment doesn't move the market (SPX), but it does accurately reflect what the working class is experiencing. Prepare yourself & your family, if you have not done so already. It may be years until we push through past, all the pain. Yet again, or for the first time for younger investors.

roelds

I bought into SQQQ weeks ago, when QQQ started tanking. Now there are enough indicators to show greed is too high, so time to sell on this Black Monday, at or near market open. Notice: EMA, Vol EMA, & BBP quickly trending up signaling too greedy. So take profit & look for next trade. We will see Tue if this is truly the last bottom.

roelds

15.15 is as low as TQQQ should drop for this bear cycle. The support has held steady since the last high in 2018.