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AlexUngureanu
Feb 1, 2017 4:56 PM

USD/CAD Long

U.S. DOLLAR / CANADIAN DOLLARICE

Description

From all the commodity currencies, I expect the CAD to be highly impacted by a hawkish Fed at tonight's meeting, because of wider IR spreads and the fact that the market has not fully priced in the possibility of a rate cut of the BoC and the risk of a border tax with Canada.
I expect to fill the gap in the dark green sphere. Take first profit 75% at 1.3200, let 25% for 1.3385.
If the Fed implies that every meeting is live, and the probability for a rate hike in march increases, start rebuilding positions on every pullback. The ADP Non-farm employment change might indicate a positive NFP on Friday.
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