AlexUngureanu

AlexUngureanu

Similar to mid-December move, the aussie is most vulnerable to Fed raising rates and higher US2y and US10y yields. In spite of great data from Australia, stabilizing economy in China if the Fed raises rates on 15th of march or keeps a high probability of 3 hikes in 2017, we can see the aussie selling off against the dollar. Enter short at 0.7610, the 50% Fibonacci...

AlexUngureanu

From all the commodity currencies, I expect the CAD to be highly impacted by a hawkish Fed at tonight's meeting, because of wider IR spreads and the fact that the market has not fully priced in the possibility of a rate cut of the BoC and the risk of a border tax with Canada. I expect to fill the gap in the dark green sphere. Take first profit 75% at 1.3200, let...

AlexUngureanu Updated 

The string of good US data and hawkish Fed may suggest the dollar correction might be over. The MACD divergence suggests we might see a retracement of the currency pair down to the point of release 0.7380. Entry point: sell 0.7560 Take profit : 0.7400 Stop Loss : 0.7630

AlexUngureanu

The aussie is in January '17 one of the top performers. Even though the RSI and MACD are forming divergences, and the stochastic is in oversold territory, the selling of USD continues due to uncertainty in Trump's new policy. The price is showing extreme resilience even after a bad CPI and looks like it wants to break the 0.76 barrier. This takes me to the...

AlexUngureanu Updated 

The upside potential for the oil is limited and the increasing divergence between US and Canadian economy creates a bullish bias for the pair. The BoC might be a bit hawkish on Wednesday, after to positive economic reports which can drag the pair down to 1.28-1.29 which gives us the opportunity to go long. The risk for this trade is a positive Canadian CPI on...

AlexUngureanu Updated 

High commodity prices, infrastructure spending in US will increase demand for Iron ore, good Chinese data support the AUD in the long run. Entry long at 0.7370