sorry, but WTF is the matter with VXX??!?!?!?!!?!? i guess the stock market priced in possibility of trump win and also priced in his very expected announcement last night of "victory". I guess there is no material "volatility" if everything is happening as expected.
The expected win comment comes from SPX trailing 3 months being either positive or negative. If positive, incumbent stays. If negative, change in management. (100% accurate since 1984 and 87% accurate since 1928. Check out SPX as its very interesting. Significant sell off taking us into negative territory (trump loses) from 10/12 - 10/30. Then 10/31 - 11/3 it zooms up taking us into positive territory (trump wins/stays). READ: It seems like stock market was conceding in trump lost but then changed its mind at the last minute! Market is very efficient and obviously it knew it was going to be much closer/tighter race than our pollers thought.
Note that the VXX was trying to push up during that 10/12-10/30 period and since 10/31 - 11/3 has really bottomed out.
Trump has a real chance if the uncounted votes are truly his. If so, then VXX will likely plummet (and could break this support of 22.50). If not, then Biden wins and the market will have a major sell-off and this sucker (VXX) could really pop. I wonder if we will see a real pop instead of these smaller ones that we have been seeing. (ie. similar to feb/march '18 and nov/dec '18 or even march '20).
Dr_Roboto
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@fchawla, I am not sure if politics really affects the market over the longer term or it is just coincidence. I have studied a lot of Elliott wave theory, and this rally was expected. It looks like a Wave 2 of a 5 wave drop off the recent high, that high was the top of Wave B (wave A was the drop off the ATH). I think what we are seeing is trading algorithms taking advantage of low volume and rapidly pushing up the price instead of letting it play out over days and weeks. Everything since the March low has been at warp speed, taking months instead of years. I think the exact top price is FOMO/MOMO driven, but the general trend is following wave theory pretty well. I can't wait until all of this is over. I just don't trade much because I can't stand waking up in the morning to a 3% gap up or down, especially when if I have any leveraged assets (TQQQ/SQQQ).
fchawla
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@Dr_Roboto, Market is very efficient and prices everything in (politics included). I love trading view as i am learning so much. Spent a few hours on Elliot wave theory after reading your response and i guess i can see it but i don't yet understand how EWT is very useful. (Its complicated so i may not have fully grasped yet). I don't see how it adds any more than using fibonaccis. I just posted another VXX analysis so take a look and tell me what you think :-) I can't wait to get out of this trade either! Had several (okay 2) pretty good opportunities to exit. one was 30% gain and other was like 5% gain, but i just really feel like this one is gonna have to pop soon! lol. Lastly, i do find it strange you are watching/analyzing this one so carefully. Those pops are fast & furious and i get the sense that there will be significant gapping up overnight (with some major drama/news). not ideal for day traders, but i guess i could see how a day trader would be quick to hop on in once the pop occurs if they have done the analysis and know where its going to. (I think looking for $50 is not unreasonable which is why i didn't sell that last 2 times......). good luck Dr_Roboto!
Dr_Roboto
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@fchawla, I like waves because they give some rhyme and reason to the market, but you are right that it is not the best for trading. I do find the knowledge I gained about waves to be helpful in understanding the general moves (highs and lows) and overall trend. The biggest win is the knowledge of fib levels and how to use them. Search for "Elliott Wave Theory : Rules, Guidelines and Basic Structures" for a good website. To be honest, I enjoy trying to understand the market more than actual trading. I suck at actually making money.
I track that VXX because, well, I am not sure exactly. I got interested in the VIX way back in February and found a lot of info in the VIX that foreshadows big moves in the market. I kind of stuck with it ever since. Not to mention, if you bet right on it, you can make a lot of money in a very short time (50-300%).
The expected win comment comes from SPX trailing 3 months being either positive or negative. If positive, incumbent stays. If negative, change in management. (100% accurate since 1984 and 87% accurate since 1928. Check out SPX as its very interesting. Significant sell off taking us into negative territory (trump loses) from 10/12 - 10/30. Then 10/31 - 11/3 it zooms up taking us into positive territory (trump wins/stays). READ: It seems like stock market was conceding in trump lost but then changed its mind at the last minute! Market is very efficient and obviously it knew it was going to be much closer/tighter race than our pollers thought.
Note that the VXX was trying to push up during that 10/12-10/30 period and since 10/31 - 11/3 has really bottomed out.
Trump has a real chance if the uncounted votes are truly his. If so, then VXX will likely plummet (and could break this support of 22.50). If not, then Biden wins and the market will have a major sell-off and this sucker (VXX) could really pop. I wonder if we will see a real pop instead of these smaller ones that we have been seeing. (ie. similar to feb/march '18 and nov/dec '18 or even march '20).