SUPPLY AND DEMAND In this analysis, we'll be focusing on the H1 timeframe for XAUUSD. We are looking for buy opportunity with key levels at 2350.00 - 2356.00 . If the price reject 2350.00 - 2356.00 zone, than we go for buy and the target is set at 2390.00, indicating a potential upward movement. Conversely, if price break below at the key level 2350.00,than wait for confirmation and look for sell. the sell target is identified at 2332,indicating downward movement. Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes .Here we have two supply zone and two demand zone. SELL ZONE KEY LEVELS: 2392.00 - 2400.00 2410.00 - 2416.00 BUY ZONE KEY LEVELS: 2350.00 - 2356.00 2328.50 - 2332.50Longby TradeTacticsrealUpdated 115
SMC / LIQUIDITY✅Gold managed to create a New All-Time High(ATH) at the beginning of the week. 🏃♂️Currently, Gold is moving near the 🔴PDL previous day low 🔴. 🌊According to the SMC / LIQUIDITY concept, when gold market has taken all the sell side liquidity, once the sell side liquidity has been taken completely then market will move further according to the direction of the trend. 💡Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD) between two Consecutive Peaks. 🔔I expect Gold to continue falling to at least the 🟢Support zone(2373 - 2353)🟢. Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 1-hour time frame ⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions.Shortby TradeTacticsrealUpdated 7
SMC CONCEPT✅Gold managed to create a New All-Time High(ATH) at the beginning of the week. 🏃♂️Currently, Gold is moving near the 🔴PDL previous day low 🔴. 🌊According to the SMC / ICT concept, when market price sweep the liquidity, once the sell side liquidity has been swept completely then market will move further according to the direction of the trend. 💡Also, we can see Bearish momentum is very strong. 🔔I expect Gold to continue falling to at least the 🟢Demand OB or otherwise support area🟢. Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 4-hour time frame ⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions.Shortby TradeTacticsrealUpdated 8
Swiss Franc Long IdeaA potential Long opportunity in Swiss Franc. The "Swissie" has tended to make a seasonal bottom in May and is currently bouncing of support (demand) on the weekly chart. The 4H chart then appears to show a potential accumulation schematic. The breakout above the range aligns with our bullish, seasonal bias as mentioned above. We are monitoring to initiate a long position if price pulls back into the range below 1.106. This would be a test of the schematic. If price trades below the Spring at 1.090, the idea is invalidated. Longby DaXingUpdated 1
SILVER (XAGUSD) 04/02/2024Purple Box: Bearish (21.6 - 22.1p/o) Blue Box: Bullish 1.(25 - 25.6) 2.(28 - 28.7p/o) Bullish Scenario Silver's a very under priced metal, I'm thinking because countries are stock piling more gold they should also be doing the same with silver... Prise is finding or has found support above 22p/o and so a push upwards towards 25 is highly probable... If we call our last push down a retrace, we hit 60-70%(discount?) Bearish Scenario There is a high probability of being bullish, but the markets the market and a fall shouldn't be ruled out... A break below the purple box with resistance then found and a fall to 18p/o is likely... (bias change) We could be forming an ascending triangle... So one more rejection of 25p/o and then a full pullback climb to 28p/o or passed. Longby DENCHMONUpdated 115
Gold showing Bears incoming .Gold showing Bears incoming by breaking 2332.63 and close below . but keep an eye on news for sure . if not .. wait for a reversal .Shortby rekoo202
2368 is the key point, a double bottom cannot be ruled out Gold currently continues to focus on the resistance near 2368, which is the focus of the current trend shift, so if you are trading in the general trend, this position cannot be ignored. If it cannot break through 2368, bulls may counterattack at any time, so the risk of going long at a low level is relatively small. But once it breaks through 2368, you need to be wary of another outbreak of shorts. If you want to chase longs, you must be cautious. As long as there is profit, you must not be too greedy. Taking profits in time is the safe way to trade. The view of the general trend remains unchanged, the strong resistance for rebound is 2368-2383-2391, and the short target is 2280-2230-2200. I wish everyone good luck and feel free to leave me a message if you have any questions.Longby Allen_Ex7
Options Blueprint Series: Pre and Post OPEC+ WTI Options PlaysIntroduction The world of crude oil trading is significantly influenced by the decisions made by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+. These meetings, which often dictate production levels, can lead to substantial market volatility. Traders and investors closely monitor these events, not only for their immediate impact on oil prices but also for the broader economic implications. In this article, we explore two sophisticated options strategies designed to capitalize on the volatility surrounding OPEC+ meetings, specifically focusing on WTI Crude Oil Futures Options. We will delve into the double calendar spread, a strategy to exploit the expected rise in implied volatility (IV) before the meeting, and the transition to a long iron condor, which aims to profit from potential post-meeting volatility adjustments. Understanding the Market Dynamics OPEC+ meetings are pivotal events in the global oil market, with decisions that can significantly influence crude oil prices. These meetings typically revolve around discussions on production quotas, which directly affect the supply side of the oil market. The anticipation and outcomes of these meetings create a fertile ground for volatility, especially in the days leading up to and immediately following the announcements. Implied Volatility (IV) Dynamics Pre-Meeting Volatility: In the days leading up to an OPEC+ meeting, implied volatility (IV) often rises. This increase is driven by market uncertainty and the potential for significant price moves based on the meeting's outcome. Traders buy options to hedge against or speculate on the potential price movements, thereby increasing the demand for options and pushing up IV. Post-Meeting Volatility: After the meeting, IV can either spike or drop sharply, depending on whether the outcome aligns with market expectations. An unexpected decision can cause a significant IV spike due to the new uncertainty introduced, while a decision in line with expectations can lead to a sharp drop as the uncertainty dissipates. Strategy 1: Double Calendar Spread The double calendar spread is a sophisticated options strategy that can potentially take advantage of rising implied volatility (IV) leading up to significant market events, such as the OPEC+ meeting. This strategy involves establishing positions in options with different expiration dates but the same strike price, allowing traders to profit from the increase in IV while managing risk effectively. Structure Long Legs: Buy longer-term call and put options. Short Legs: Sell shorter-term call and put options. The strategy typically involves setting up two calendar spreads at different strike prices (one higher and one lower), thus the term "double calendar." Rationale The rationale behind this strategy is that the longer-term options will experience a greater increase in IV as the event approaches, inflating their premiums more than the shorter-term options. As the short-term options expire, traders can realize a profit from the difference in premiums, assuming IV rises as expected. Strategy 2: Transition to Long Iron Condor As the OPEC+ meeting date approaches and the double calendar spread positions reach their peak profitability due to the elevated implied volatility (IV), it becomes strategic to transition into a long iron condor. This shift aims to capitalize on potential volatility changes and capture profits from the expected IV drop. Structure Closing the Double Calendar: Close the short-term call and put options from the double calendar spread. Setting Up the Long Iron Condor: Sell new OTM call and put options with the same expiration date as the long legs of the double calendar spread. The result is a position where the trader holds long options closer to the money and short options further out, creating a long condor structure. Rationale The rationale for transitioning to a long iron condor is to capture profits from a potential decrease in IV after the OPEC+ meeting. Practical Example To illustrate the application of the double calendar spread and the transition to a long iron condor, let's walk through a detailed example using hypothetical WTI Crude Oil Futures prices. Double Calendar Spread Setup 1. Initial Conditions: Current price of WTI Crude Oil Futures: $77.72 per barrel. Date: One week before the OPEC+ meeting. 2. Long Legs: Buy a call option with a strike price of $81, expiring on Jun-7 2024 @ 0.32. Buy a put option with a strike price of $74, expiring on Jun-7 2024 @ 0.38. 3. Short Legs: Sell a call option with a strike price of $81, expiring on May-31 2024 @ 0.05. Sell a put option with a strike price of $74, expiring on May-31 2024 @ 0.09. Note: We are using the CME Group Options Calculator in order to generate fair value prices and Greeks for any options on futures contracts. Transition to Long Iron Condor 1. Closing the Double Calendar: Close the short-term call and put options just before they expire @ 0.01 (assuming they are OTM on Friday May-31, before the market closes for the weekend). 2. Setting Up the Iron Condor: Sell a call option with a strike price of $82, expiring on Jun-7 2024 @ 0.13. Sell a put option with a strike price of $73, expiring on Jun-7 2024 @ 0.18. 0.11 and 0.17 are estimated values assuming WTI Crude Oil Futures remains fairly centered around 77.50 and that IV has risen into the OPEC+ meeting weekend. Transitioning from the Double Calendar to the Long Iron Condor would be done on Friday May-31. 3. Resulting Position: You now hold a long call at $81, a long put at $74, a short call at $82, and a short put at $73, forming a long iron condor. The risk of the trade has been reduced by half (assuming the real fills coincide with the estimated values above) from 0.56 to 0.27 = $270 with a potential for reward of up to 0.73 (1 – 0.27) = $730. This practical example demonstrates how to effectively implement and transition between the double calendar spread and the long iron condor to navigate the volatility surrounding an OPEC+ meeting. Importance of Risk Management Effective risk management is crucial when implementing options strategies, particularly around significant market events like the OPEC+ meeting. The volatility and potential for sharp market moves require traders to have robust risk management practices to protect their capital and ensure long-term success. Avoiding Undefined Risk Exposure Undefined risk exposure occurs when traders have no clear limit on their potential losses. This can happen with certain options strategies that involve selling naked options. To avoid this, traders should always define their risk by using strategies that have built-in risk limits, such as spreads and condors. Precise Entries and Exits Making precise entries and exits is critical in options trading. This involves: Entering trades at optimal times to maximize potential profits. Exiting trades at predetermined levels to lock in gains or limit losses. Adjusting trades based on market conditions and new information. Additional Risk Management Practices Diversification: Spread risk across different assets and strategies. Position Sizing: Allocate only a small percentage of capital to each trade to avoid significant losses from a single position. Continuous Monitoring: Regularly review and adjust positions as market conditions evolve. By adhering to these risk management principles, traders can navigate the complexities of the options market and mitigate the risks associated with volatile events like OPEC+ meetings. Conclusion Navigating the volatility surrounding significant market events like the OPEC+ meeting requires strategic planning and effective risk management. By implementing the double calendar spread before the meeting, traders can capitalize on the anticipated rise in implied volatility (IV). Transitioning to a long iron condor after the meeting allows traders to benefit from potential post-meeting volatility adjustments or price stabilization. These strategies, when executed correctly, offer a structured approach to managing market uncertainties and capturing profits from both pre- and post-event volatility. The key lies in precise timing, appropriate strike selection, and diligent risk management practices to protect against adverse market movements. By understanding and applying these sophisticated options strategies, traders can enhance their ability to navigate the complexities of the crude oil market and leverage the opportunities presented by OPEC+ meetings. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.Educationby traddictiv3
Gold Daily Call - Sideways to upMy potential H&S for gold is still in play.. We got the bounce from oversold levels yesterday and might get another attempt to recover today/tmrw towards the 38.2%-retracement of the recent sell-off at around USD 2,373ish. But spot gold needs to hold above USD 2,335. Otherwise the sell-off will continue most likely towards USD2,300-2,280ish. Once the lows for this pullback from USD 2,450 are in and a new buy signal on the daily stochastic emerges the potential right shoulder could bring gold prices back above USD 2,400ish which would fit with silver rallying towards USD 35ish+x.by MidasTouchConsulting2
XAUUSD - Short Trade IdeaThis trade is based on Gold's price trading into a Daily SIBI Unicorn setup. Whilst it isn't premium of the range, there was a CHoCH to the downside on the 4h timeframe, disrespecting a 4h BISI. I am looking to get into a short when price returns to this BISI to be used as an IFVG. Target will be at the swing low, but leaving a runner would be ideal in an actual trade to target at least 2278, should the bias be correct in the first place. Stoploss near the 4h swing high for the current trade, but should be trailed to secure profits should the current objective be hit. #NFA - R2FShortby Road_2_Funded112
E Mini AnalysisFrom this gap the market will be bullish. I want to let you know that we are off session but you can look for a market structure shift and you can enter buy. We are bullishLongby TheNightB1
#Gold 🔼Target 2351 🎯#market_pulse 🥰 Hey everyone! 💵Let's consider some positions for now! #EURUSD 🔼 Target 1.08838 .🎯 #GBPUSD 🔼Target 1.28044 .🎯 #AUDUSD 🔼Target 0.66633 .🎯 👀 👑👑👑 #Gold 🔼Target 2351 🎯 💬How is the deal?Longby sabiotrade0
XAUUSD: Trend in 39 Min timeframePlease pay special attention to the accurate trend, channel, and colored levels. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The setup is very sensitive <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< Be careful BEST MTby MT_T0
Re-Sell order engaged / #2,300.80 TargetedAs discussed throughout my yesterday's session commentary: "My position: I have engaged Selling order with #2,348.80 entry point, #2,300.80 benchmark remains optimal Target for the fractal. I do believe that Gold might re-test #2,350's Resistance zone before #2,300.80 aggressive takedown test." My #2,348.80 entry point hit #2,356.80 Stop-loss as I re-Sold Gold with #2,356.80 entry point, optimal Target remains #2,300.80 benchmark. Technical analysis: Gold has light calendar throughout the session and expect no sudden moves. DX is on mild decline which is adding Buying pressure on Gold. There is no definitive upwards direction motion within this range so from a Technical standpoint, Selling is recommended until Gold presents me with a break-out (market closing below #2,352.80). I am still idle until we either approach the #2,362.80 Resistance or if #2,340.80 Support breaks to the downside (even though my Selling order is in excellent Profit by now). In both cases the Short-term Target is #2,300.80 benchmark. Despite last week’s strong Bearish candle sequence, Gold remains largely Neutral within the #2,332.80 Bottom and the #2,456.80 Resistance zone. Following yesterday's unexpected Bullish spike towards #2,352.80 benchmark / first Resistance (Bullish spikes became new norm lately), Gold is now consolidating on Hourly 1 chart within #2,340.80 - #2,352.80 Neutral Rectangle (limited to #2,332.80 - #2,356.80 High’s / Low’s) raising decent Selling opportunity for Short-term Sellers. Based on the Daily chart’s Descending Channel though, this may be just the consolidation before the next aggressive slide but could be as long as the previous decline within last Daily chart’s cycle to the downside (# -8.13% magnitude). Sellers which aren't positioned on market are a bit late now and should look for a Higher entry later on. My position: I have re-Sold Gold with #2,356.80 entry point, optimal Target remains #2,300.80 benchmark.Shortby goldenBear888823
✅GOLD WILL GO DOWN|SHORT🔥 ✅GOLD broke the rising Support line and the price Then made a bullish correction But we are bearish biased locally So we will be expecting A further move down SHORT🔥 ✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅Shortby ProSignalsFx115
Re-Sell order engaged / #2,300.80 TargetedAs discussed throughout my yesterday's session commentary: "My position: I have engaged Selling order with #2,348.80 entry point, #2,300.80 benchmark remains optimal Target for the fractal. I do believe that Gold might re-test #2,350's Resistance zone before #2,300.80 aggressive takedown test." My #2,348.80 entry point hit #2,356.80 Stop-loss as I re-Sold Gold with #2,356.80 entry point, optimal Target remains #2,300.80 benchmark. Technical analysis: Gold has light calendar throughout the session and expect no sudden moves. DX is on mild decline which is adding Buying pressure on Gold. There is no definitive upwards direction motion within this range so from a Technical standpoint, Selling is recommended until Gold presents me with a break-out (market closing below #2,352.80). I am still idle until we either approach the #2,362.80 Resistance or if #2,340.80 Support breaks to the downside (even though my Selling order is in excellent Profit by now). In both cases the Short-term Target is #2,300.80 benchmark. Despite last week’s strong Bearish candle sequence, Gold remains largely Neutral within the #2,332.80 Bottom and the #2,456.80 Resistance zone. Following yesterday's unexpected Bullish spike towards #2,352.80 benchmark / first Resistance (Bullish spikes became new norm lately), Gold is now consolidating on Hourly 1 chart within #2,340.80 - #2,352.80 Neutral Rectangle (limited to #2,332.80 - #2,356.80 High’s / Low’s) raising decent Selling opportunity for Short-term Sellers. Based on the Daily chart’s Descending Channel though, this may be just the consolidation before the next aggressive slide but could be as long as the previous decline within last Daily chart’s cycle to the downside (# -8.13% magnitude). Sellers which aren't positioned on market are a bit late now and should look for a Higher entry later on. My position: I have re-Sold Gold with #2,356.80 entry point, optimal Target remains #2,300.80 benchmark.Shortby goldenBear888
XAUUSD continuing bullish tomorrow?Within the Top Down Analysis from D1, the trend is continuing upwards. It broke the last H1 ceiling and is going somewhere towards north. The safest option is going bullish from zone to zone, until there is more structure. Be careful around 2357. Reversal for a bigger retracement is possible around there. This trade should play out before the USD News in the afternoon 4 pm GMT+1 I took 300 pips SL to get around the DKL points.Longby UnderlayerUpdated 113
Cast on XauusdThis not Financial Advice gang. -Overall XAUUSD Setup on 1D TF. -Expecting XAUUSD overall playout bearish. -Either you make bread with that information or continue being ignorant, Do you Gang.Shortby Uncle-TakeProfitt1
XAU/USD faces resistance despite recovering from recent pullbackGold (XAU/USD) started the week trading with a positive bias after last week's correction. The precious metal dropped over 4% as strong economic data in the US continues to hinder the hopes of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Commentary last week from several FOMC members continued to point towards a restrictive policy for the foreseeable future, at least until meaningful progress in disinflation resumes. The pullback did serve bulls for one thing: to confirm that support remains intact at the 23.6% Fibonacci ($2,326), a level that has halted declines in the past. There is still a lack of desire to be a seller of gold, given the prospects of further appreciation when the Fed – eventually – starts cutting rates. Fear of a resurgence in geopolitical tensions also continues to limit the downside in gold. However, the bullish drive that was so evident in the first quarter of the year has started to dissipate. The path of least resistance remains higher, but it is becoming more laboured, with tougher and more frequent levels of resistance. XAU/USD will likely remain volatile in the coming weeks as more insight into the path of interest rates is sought. The US PCE index released later this week could offer some momentum, especially if the data deviates from what’s expected. Further Fedspeak will also continue to determine the direction for the precious metal. Technically, the daily chart shows that XAU/USD is primed for another rally as the RSI rebounds from just below 50. The support from Fibonacci has offered buyers a new chance to push higher but there is some resistance in the short-term. The 20-day SMA, currently at $2,351, has moved back above the price, which may suggest some continued weakness over the next few days. Any correction is likely to remain superficial as long as XAU/USD holds above $2,300. by CapitalcomUpdated 2
Gold longs? Price is currently @ retest level, potentially showing signs of bearish momentum depleting, will gold gain ahead of PCE data? Longby BM_ForexTrader0
Gold is recovering this weekClosing the buying and selling consultation withinside the US marketplace this morning, the arena gold spot rate became round the edge above 2,353 USD/ounce, a pointy boom of nineteen USD/ounce in comparison to the preceding buying and selling consultation last on this marketplace. Qatar`s Ministry of Foreign Affairs protested the huge assault on a refugee camp in Rafah, southern Gaza Strip, simply hours after Hamas forces introduced that that they'd fired a chain of large-quality rockets into Tel Aviv and the Central region. Israel. Qatar stated Israel's modern-day assault on Rafah may want to avert mediation efforts to attain a ceasefire settlement and change hostages with Hamas forces. Experts say that escalating geopolitical tensions will nonetheless help gold charges to boom withinside the quick term. However, traders ought to additionally be cautious, due to the fact while it increases "hot" because of geopolitics, it'll calm down quickly. Furthermore, withinside the ultimate 2 days of the month, the marketplace will get hold of a few financial records from the US, that may positioned stress on gold charges.by NicoTradingMaster2