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In every new post, I always like to explain that my views are not a statement of "This will happen." Instead, my posts should be interpreted as "We never know what direction the price will take" However if the price movement becomes bearish, this is how I will trade the market. Another important element to highlight is that my setups have a 50% win rate. That...

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The price of crude oil has been moving sideways between 95 and 125. As a general rule, 90% of the time, I only trade once the price reaches key levels. In this case, the price is in the support zone. Therefore, I have looked for all the scenarios where the price was behaving similar to what it is now (we can define it as a triple bottom). Of course, in some of...

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I have been actively trading the market since 2019 without doing stupid things (only minor mistakes). Before 2019 I was trying to get rich fast, and of course, that didn't go well. One of the things I have been doing since 2019 was writing principles or key ideas regarding my trading journey. That includes significant mistakes or things I noticed about the...

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In today's post, I will do my best to bring an objective analysis of the current situation compared to all the available data we have on BITCOIN! Let's start with the current situation. How can we describe it? - On the 21 of April 2021, the bearish market started. From that point, Bitcoin never made a significant movement above that level. That's why I...

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In today's post, we will compare the current correction in S&P500 with all the similar corrections that happened since the beginning of the bull market in 2009 (the bottom of the 2008 financial crisis). Why are we doing this? Because in the market, no situation is completely new, and by understanding similar situations in the past, and the following...

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What are the parts of a trading strategy? I was doing a backtest on a new concept yesterday, and I realized the different parts of my testing strategy. At that moment, I became aware that the way I see any trading strategy is like an algorithm with several filters or steps. When those filters become "TRUE," we can check the following filter until we have a...

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In today's post, I will speak about my plan in case of a bearish resolution in gold. The first thing is the formation I want to see before trading. I have defined 2 conditions. a) I want to observe a clear ABC pattern. b) The price must get close to the resistance level. IF those conditions happen , I would be interested in developing setups below B...

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Your strategy will inevitably go through a Drawdown. And there's nothing you can do about it to stop that. However, you can learn how to survive it! Today I will give you actionable steps, that you can use for the next time the market hit your strategy and you feel that everything is going wrong. Let's start with an idea of what a drawdown is, and why drawdowns...

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IMPORTANT: I'm not saying that this scenario will be the same. As a trader, I consider my job, to find objective patterns in historical data, and define if those patterns are happening right now so I can create a trading setup before that situation is happening. IF the situation is not evolving as expected, I must try to avoid opening positions on the market, and...

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A few days ago I developed a bearish setup on the index, that is going well currently. However, we should always be ahead of the price, and get ready for possible outcomes, before the price is actually there. Please check my previous post on the link to related ideas to get a better idea of what I'm saying right now. This is the current setup I have right now,...

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On gold, we have observed contact with a daily trendline. What's next from here? Today's post is about understanding the importance of thinking in terms of multiple directions and outcomes. Most of the time we focus only on one direction. "I think this is Bullish" or, "I think this is Bearish" But what if that's not the case? Do you have a plan to follow in...

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I have been waiting several months for the price to reach the major support zone, as the main target for the bearish movement. This creates a clear ABC pattern as you can see in the next picture. But, what does this mean? It means that the price has reached a level where we observed bullish pressure and that caused the beginning of the previous bullish...

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First, let's start with context. The price has been moving sideways for the last 60 days on a key level where we have observed reversals in the past, as well as continuations after clear consolidations. The Primary Bullish target from where we are right now is 145.00. The Primary Bearish target is 80.00. How can we know which of them will be the right...

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Last month I was stopped out on a bullish setup on gold, that was looking to get exposure to a new bullish movement above the previous all-time high zone. However, the setup didn't go as expected and my stop loss was triggered. Remember, always let your stop loss gently take you out of the market, and assume that controlled loss. Now is time to redefine the next...

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I believe that market structures are a representation of market sentiment. So if I'm able to understand the current situation based on the times that happened in the past and its evolution. I can get a good idea of the possible outcomes. In today's post, we will start by defining the current context, and then we will look for 4 situations in the past that I found...

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Hello Everyone! Few days without posting. Let's go back with a post on Gold. On the precious metal, I have a pending setup that was not activated yet. I'm currently using GC! (gold futures) as the instrument to gain exposure to this asset. Here is the explanation of my setup. Let's get started. As the price reached a key level and made a clear corrective...

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BYND is a chart I have been following lately. It’s the chart with the less amount of data I have ever worked with. However, I see two consistent situations that happened at current levels in the past. So I plan to develop a setup if I see similar behavior with them (please check the green circles) OR to avoid trading if the price is not following those...

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Crude Oil is one of my favorite assets to trade . My trading strategy on the commodity is about waiting for the price to reach key levels, then waiting for clear corrections in those areas, and finally developing setups on the breakouts of those structures towards the next relevant support/resistance level. The timeframes I use on Crude Oil most of the time are...