US10Y - Strong support around 3.60%US10Y - Strong support around 3.60% (green line - uptrend from 2020). Multi-decade red downtrend line, already broken. Longby platinum_growth1
DXY is now Risk On scenario now as banking sector gets crushed!Sharks are smelling blood in the banking sector and they are loading up to strike. Last week, we saw Silvergate Bank collapse and shortly after that, Silicon Valley bank (SVB). Within 48 hours, 2 moderate size regional banks went under. Last Friday, several banks tanked at least 20% and few were halted due to massive shorting. The house of cards are falling and this situation looks like a Lehman Brother's. Contagion will spread to vulnerable sectors such as housing and auto. Jerome Powell wants to further increase interest rates, which will cause more destruction. Investors will be spooked and wanting to pull their money out of Dollar debt system and investments. 2 year US Treasury Bond yields dropped off the sky. With US national debt being so incredibly high at $32 Trillion and counting, US Treasuries are also no longer safe havens. Gold and Crypto perhaps? DXY just broke new lows on Daily timeframe. The bear market rally is over I believe and with the catalyst of collapsing banking sector with its contagion expectations into other sectors, DXY is Risk On now, which is Bearish. By Sifu Steve @ XeroAcademyby XeroAcademy1
SG 10Y Govt Bond and SPY relationship Part IIIn a bearish (engulfing) week for the SPY, it appears that there is more downside to follow, which I would expect. Thing is, it appears that the SG 10Y G-Bonds broke down a supporting trendline, giving advance heads up that it would be a bullish rally in the weeks to come. Previous dotted arrow line is now sold red as the SPY (blue line) moved up for a last hurrah and retraced really hard down in the weeks following from mid-Feb. Expect a bit more downside, but also expecting a bullish recovery given the heads up from the SG 10Y G-Bonds. The green dotted arrow lien depicts this expectation to last till mid- to end-April. Let's see...by Auguraltrader2
US10Y long view, target zone 3,0%-3,25%This example shows how the US10Y has been moving in a bullish trend since the beginning of 2020 (at 0.345%). From the bottom, we have a trend line as support, after which the first higher high was formed at 1.75% (resistance zone). Then follows a pullback to the lower support line and a new bullish consolidation up to the previous resistance zone. In January, we see a break above the resistance zone, and that zone now represents a support zone for us to continue the bullish trend. US10Y makes a new higher high to confirm the continuation of the bullish trend, then we retest the support zone, and a bullish impulse follows. Now our target is 3.0% psychological level and after that the previous high at 3.25% level.Longby Aleksin_AleksandarUpdated 5
Treasuries are in flat till autumn5 wave structure between Aug 2021 and Oct 2022 seems complete since the interment broke though the trend channel. Most likely the it will be forming a sideways correction flat of triangle. I see two possibilities: scenario #1: it goes up to 4.3% and then fall towards 3.3% or scenario #2: it goes down to 3% and then go up to 4.3% and down again to 3% level if 4.3% gets reached first then it is opportunity to sell USD, alternatively (if 3% gets reached first) then it is a chance to buy USD.by Kupitman5
Us 10 year yield is dropping warn signDue to big movement into markets today and banks getting sold out... we are getting into a neutral position on rates.... IF rates drop bellow 3,5% we are probably going into a recession... without way back for my perspective! No add position... total neutral nowby diegotrader99881
Looking for a wick off 4.14 then accumulating within the redExpecting a wick off the black line then accumulating within the redlines before moving up: CPI and fomc should see this play out. by hello369921
Why are bonds falling today?I noticed a large waterfall sell off of both 2year and 10year. What was reason behind such a volatile move?by TradeitUntilyouMakeit1
US10Y Bearish short termThe US10Y reached the top of its Channel Up and is reversing on a Head and Shoulders formation. Top made very close to the 0.786 Fibonacci. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price. Targets: 1. 3.575 (MA200 (1d) and Fibonacci 0.236). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) is on a Rising Support. An additional indication of when to take profit. Please like, follow and comment!!Shortby TradingBrokersView12
Japanese have been selling bonds, have Yields peaked for now?One of the reasons US Treasuries, and other bonds, have been selling off is the dumping by Japanese investors. All duration #YIELDS have done well but more so the shorter term. The Inverted Yield Curve has widened over the last few months but has been significantly lately. However, today we see the 1 & 10Yr ($TNX) selling off but the 2 Yr is CRATERING! Interesting. Also interesting is that volume has been waning for investment grade and high yield bonds. Liquidity could be an issue later on if this continues.by ROYAL_OAK_INC1
10 YEAR TREASURY: POTENTIAL SETUP FOR A CRASH?The 10 Year Treasury is showing signs of weakness flashing on a 3 Week timeframe Following our recent run to 4%, this may have been a dead cat bounce before resuming a clear downtrend In addition, the 3 Week MACD has printed a red candle, which is the first since December of 2018 (when looking at candles flip from green to white to red) Ironically, December of 2018 was when the Fed U Turn happened after the last hiking cycle... If CPI comes in under expectations (which, according to Truflation, is very likely as we currently hold at 4.78%.) Expect Yields & $DXY to drop like a stone, & the start of the next bull cycle Nothing will stop what is transpiring in the charts, there is no 2nd wave of inflation, no debt crisis... if there was, the markets would crash, but you cannot fight the trendShortby Jonalius112
Quick analysis on Switzerland 10Y BondsGood afternoon Swiss investors, today I made an analysis on the Switzerlnd 10 Year Government Bonds Yield, it shows that it's too early to put your money on the market since we're waiting for it to cross the golden point to see whether you put your money on it or no. For any more analysis on a specific market don't hesitate to ask and I'll be answering with pleasure.by YassineAnalysis2
US10Y - US02Y predictor for major recessionsMarket risks are increasing day by day and the following inversion ( US10Y - US02Y ) might hit markets severely leading to a massive correction. BlackRock 2023 Global Investment Outlook is in line with the warning and they are of the opinion that we are facing recession, stubborn inflation , and a new era that won't be so kind to investors.Shortby donalfattah222
Yields Yields Yields...30 Year YieldLong term views clear up the noise. Looking at this chart shows the 30 year yield is likely going to continue higher. Long term trend changes are serious and should be respected. by Trading-Capital2
US BOND 10YR YIELD Chart Fibonacci Analysis 030723 1) Find a FIBO Slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 3.95%/61.80%by fibonacci6180112
Inverse Relationship between US10Y & Market Indices DJI SPX NDQInverse Relationship between US10Y & Market Indices DJI SPX NDQ Above certain levels US10Y negatively effects market indices & commodity prices.by ed2o09111
๐ฅ Bond Yield Curve Inversion Reaching -1%: Why It's ImportantAn inverted yield curve occurs when the yield on a 10-year Treasury bond falls below that of a 2-year Treasury bond. Normally, longer-term bonds have higher yields than shorter-term bonds. This is because investors demand a higher return for tying up their money for a longer period of time. However, when short-term interest rates rise above long-term interest rates, it can indicate that investors believe the economy will weaken in the future. This is because investors are willing to accept lower yields on long-term bonds if they believe that interest rates will fall in the future as a result of weak economic growth. Essentially, they are willing to lock in a lower yield now, in the hopes that it will be higher in the future. An inverted yield curve can lead to a number of problems. For example, it can make it more difficult for banks to make money. This is because banks borrow at short-term rates and lend at long-term rates. When the yield curve is inverted, the interest rates that banks earn on loans are lower than the interest rates they pay on deposits. This can squeeze bank profits and make them less willing to lend. And we all know, less money in the market means less potential (risky) investments. An inverted yield curve can also be a sign of a potential recession. Historically, an inverted yield curve has preceded every recession in the United States since WW2. This is because an inverted yield curve can indicate that investors are pessimistic about the future of the economy. They may be selling off stocks and other assets, which can lead to a downturn in the stock market and a decline in consumer confidence. In conclusion, an extremely inverted yield curve like now is a situation in which short-term interest rates on government bonds are higher than long-term interest rates. This can indicate potential economic problems, including a recession and difficulties for banks. While an inverted yield curve is not a guarantee of a recession, the probability of the current yield inversion suggesting a coming recession is very high. It's going to be an interesting year. Shortby FieryTrading9921
USB10Y Monthly Outlook March 2023Fundamental Analysis With NFP around the corner, I wanted to do a fundamental breakdown of the US economy. US Dollar strength has been sustained although economic indicators are showing signs of recession. The crypto market is showing signs of a possible bullish reversal.ULongby FFCPROPFARM0
US10Y Double rejection. Targeting the 1D MA200.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern ever since the October 21 2022 High and even though there might be a Diverging Channel Up (dashed lines) emerging, the current level makes a strong Resistance cluster. With the 1D RSI also rejected twice on its Higher Highs trend-line, we are turning bearish on the US10Y again, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which supported the price twice on January 19 and February 02. Potential contact (as a target) can be made at 3.550%. We will continue to be bearish only if the 3.320% Support breaks. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE ๐, FOLLOW โ , SHARE ๐ and COMMENT โ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐Shortby TradingShot3319
United States 10-Year Bond Yield - AT RESISTANCE ๐คจ๐Massive level of resistance has played out and Stocks could power higher as Treasury yields and dollar might ease further. 4,22% has been a Major Support/Resistance level (S/R as you can see on the chart) and the prices down have dropped even lower, below the psychological 4% What does that mean? When US government bond yields are on resistance, meaning they have reached a point where they are likely to reverse direction, it can have a significant impact on various aspects of the economy and financial markets. One of the most immediate effects could be on the stock market. Higher bond yields could lead to a sell-off in equities as investors may shift their money from riskier assets to safer ones like bonds. This could result in a temporary decline in the stock market and a potential increase in market volatility. The impact on the broader economy is more nuanced. Higher bond yields can lead to higher borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which can slow down economic growth. However, if the bond yields are rising due to a strong economic outlook, it could be a sign of healthy economic expansion, which could offset the negative impact of higher borrowing costs. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy could also be affected by rising bond yields. If the Fed believes that rising bond yields could lead to an economic slowdown, it may adjust its policy by lowering interest rates or increasing its asset purchases to keep borrowing costs low and support economic growth. In summary, when US government bond yields are on resistance, it could have a significant impact on various aspects of the economy and financial markets. It could result in a temporary decline in the stock market, higher borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, and potential adjustments to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. What's next? ๐ The Feds are lots of data to watch out for: ๐ Fed Chair Powell speaks on Tuesday/Wednesday ๐ JOLTs job data on Wednesday ๐ Fed Beige Book on Wednesday ๐ Fedโs Barr speaks on Thursday ๐ February jobs report on Friday ๐ Final week of Q4 earnings Hopefully, this is a good sign to see a further rebound in the markets and a more dovish Federal Reserve.. unless they are aiming for chaos in which case they intend to raise rates over the 6% One Love, The FXPROFESSOR Shortby FX_Professor4411
Big Four: 2023 Macro ConclusionsI begin each year with a macro assessment of what I refer to as the big four markets: Bonds, Equities, Commodities, and the Dollar index. Over the last six weeks we have examined monthly and weekly charts of the big four, and developed our thoughts around how the next year might unfold. Those more detailed pieces are linked below. Late last year we presented a tutorial on using momentum to visualize the business' cycle from a market perspective (series linked below). We also produced a series covering credit conditions (also linked below). In this piece, we will combine all the things in an attempt to develop our trading views for the year. Bond Monthly: While there is still more work to be done to confirm the trend change, I believe the bond trend is finally changing as the world moves from the low inflation backdrop of the last several decades to a more inflationary backdrop. I intend to be a better seller into rallies and bearish technical setups in the weekly/intermediate perspective. S&P Monthly (Log): In the absence of overtly bearish behaviors and with the primary trendlines intact, I would be hard pressed to conclude that the macro trend has changed. In short, the secular bull remains intact and it should be given at least some of the benefit of the doubt. But my suspicion is that the secular trend is changing and that a primary bear market is unfolding. While still willing to take bullish trades in the daily and weekly perspectives, I am much more interested in opportunities to sell solid technical setups into weekly perspective strength. Commodities Monthly: I am a better seller of strength and will prioritize bearish setups. This chart continues to support the idea that the business cycle is weakening/topping. Dollar Index Monthly: The 70.70 - 121.02 trading range has defined the Dollar trade over most of the last 4 decades. Even at the August 2022 high, DXY remained well within this range. Since correcting from the August 2022 high, the market is now in the upper center of this range. Moves inside the bounds of the range are primarily noise and while they present trading opportunities, they mean little in macro terms. If the market does test the top of the broader range, my expectation is that a major shorting opportunity will develop. Business Cycle Matrix: The matrix is entirely consistent with a weakening business cycle that has yet to trough. Over the last two years rising short and long rates led the cycle lower. Equities, responding to higher rates, turned lower this year and both industrial and agricultural commodities are now weakening as economic demand wanes. The outlier is the Dollar. It has benefited from global flight to quality, carry and the aggressiveness of our central bank verses other central banks. But, of the asset classes, the Dollars relationship to the business cycle is the least consistent. Rates clearly led this cycle lower and it is likely that they will lead the next cycle higher. It is important to note that short rates have risen more than long rates. This has created the type of highly reliable yield curve inversion that signals a coming recession. High Yield Option Adjusted Spread - Investment Grade Option Adjusted Spread Monthly: If there is any one thing, other than a collapse in inflation, that would induce a Fed pivot it would be a rapid deterioration in credit conditions. A collapse would show up in this chart (series linked below). A spread moving back into the 500-600 bps area would get the Feds attention and begin to set the stage for a rapid pivot. Conclusions: 1. The business cycle is likely to weaken over the coming months. 2. The weaker cycle should produce lower equities (earnings will finally begin to deteriorate). 3. A recession should put in a temporary top for bond and note yields. 4. A sharply steeper curve, led by short rates falling more rapidly than long rates, would suggest that the recession was here. 5. A weaker business cycle should produce lower commodities and a lower Dollar. For myself, I like to have a blueprint of expectations to trade and position around. But it is also important to be flexible. In highly financialized and interlocked economies things change quickly and plans must be adapted to the new situation. I suspect that risk management and flexibility will be needed this year. Many of the topics and techniques discussed in this post are part of the CMT Associations Chartered Market Technicianโs curriculum. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur. Editors' picksby CMT_Association66283
Brazilian bonds flirting with sell off Well they say bond markets know all.. if thats true brazilian bond as represent brazil isnt in good shape for moment.. it has been seeling off since 2021 making it brazilian economy might be under problems. If bond markets knows all brazilian economy is pretty much in a bad shape. Investors... NEUTRAL POSITION TO SELL SIDE!by diegotrader99882
My Thoughts on Treasury Yields and Why You Should Care5% of on a 1-year US Government Bond Yield? I never thought that I would see the day. Many of us have grown up in a low rate world. Today, you buy a US Treasury bond, hold it for a year, and get 5%. That's more than most stocks yield in dividends, probably nearly double or triple the average. However, it's said that the S&P 500 averages 7% a year or so. Nonetheless, factor in recession fears and the trade becomes even more interesting. What are government bond yields? A government bond is a debt security issued by a government to raise money. When you buy a government bond, you're effectively lending money to the government in exchange for interest payments. The yield on a government bond is the return you'll receive on your investment, expressed as a percentage. So if a bond has a face value of $1,000 and a yield of 3%, you'll receive $30 per year in interest. Why are government bond yields rising? I can list out those reasons for you below: 1. Inflation 2. The Fed is purchasing less Treasuries 3. Economic growth is slowing, which means taxes will be less What are the major implications? Opportunity costs. I'll say it again: Opportunity costs. Everything that is bought, sold, and/or traded now must be weighed against this 5% yield. Do you want to buy Apple for the next year at its current valuation or take a risk to get 5% on a Treasury bond? You can substitute Apple for anything and everything that comes to mind from construction investments to crypto. Do I own any bonds? NO. I missed it and am only now paying attention. Will I potentially add some to my portfolio? 5%? It's possible. That's why I wrote this idea. I want to share my thoughts and add a few of these symbols to my watchlist. I look forward to reading your comments!by scheplick4413