Bear market over..... Check historyLook at the history, the market has shown indications in the past when it bottoms. look at this chart. we are at the pivot point. every influencer is bearish....what happens when everyone is bearish?? The market goes bullish. Get ready.Longby Psycho_1-15
US 10Year - 02Year - Yield Inversion (Posted 01FEB23)In this chart you can see how inverted we are and for how long on the 10-2year. I also have the 10-03mo chart that I will link to this also. This is a recession indicator. It will be interesting to follow this chart as the FOMC tries to bring the curve back under control. I will return frequently to run the "Play" and see how they do over the months!Longby Markets-Sniper1
US 10Year - US03MO - Yield Inversion (Posted 01FEB23)In this chart you can see how inverted we are and for how long on the 10-3mo. I also have the 10-2YR chart that I will link to this also. This is a recession indicator. It will be interesting to follow this chart as the FOMC tries to bring the curve back under control. I will return frequently to run the "Play" and see how they do over the months!Longby Markets-Sniper2
US10Y - Could Be Breaking DownCharts potentially seem to be coming together in unison here and US10Y is key... Yields are a major factor in either releasing or inhibiting risk-on asset markets, especially crypto. If yields pump, stocks and crypto will dump, but if yields dump then it could be a bull market for crypto, stocks, and probably metals. And here could be the first cracks that may reveal a top, though high volatility coming in just a few hours with FOMC announcement so we will see... ... So firstly from the low of the previous wave down we now have 3 waves up. The 3 waves are shallow with the 3rd printing a slightly higher high. And so these 3 waves form an ascending wedge (bearish). And it has fallen out of the wedge and also a collapse with a bearish momentum candle (large bodied) through the 4H 50MA (4 hour, 50 moving average). If you've been paying attention you'll know that the first wave of a continuation pattern retracement is the immediate reaction to the previous dominant wave down and so often has a lot of bounce. But the third wave is commonly more limp as it is less reflective and is where the impetus of the dominant trend is regaining control for the next wave down. And so we have our Adam & Eve shapes for wave 1 and 3. Notice the lower time frame SRP shakeout reversal patterns probing through wave 1 resistance with fast liquidity tapping wicks. And the current candle we have probe upward that may now become a SRP when it closes, with large upper wick showing selling pressure coming in through the 4H 50MA landmark. This could be the beginning of something but until the low breaks it is not confirmed and the correction could continue. We look at this type of content every day ๐๐ป. Not advice. Shortby dRends353311
Next economic recession this year?๐๐คAs Bullard (FED) spoke, the bond market is challenging the narrative of a soft landing. The 3 month to 10 year yield curve, which has hit every recession in the last 20 years, inverts to its lowest point. Signal that the bond market expects a recession, slowdown or anything that does not mean a soft landing Shortby Ed_AleUpdated 225
US10Y: Trapped inside the 4H MA50-MA200The US10Y, a major driver for Gold, is trapped inside the 4H MA50 and 4H MA200, before tomorrow's Fed Rate Decision. This shows the market uncertainty surrounding this event as investors haven't yet chosen to pick sides. That keeps 4H neutral technically (RSI = 52.167, MACD = 0.014, ADX = 27.887) and we can only trade this with careful points that will be triggered after a level is breached. A breach over the 4H MA200 is a buy (TP = 3.780 / the Resistance). A breach under the 4H MA50 is a sell (TP = 3.420 / the Support). Carefully sell on tight SL further breaches below the Support (TP = 1D MA200 and Main LL in extension). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##by InvestingScope449
us10y bull flag Notice a Daily Bull Flag and bullish divergence on the #us10y as it moves opposite from our #stockmarket and #crypto Longby awakensoul_3695
USTN10.f UpTextbook trade. First leg down showed full conviction. Second leg is active.ULongby jforex780
US10Y : The BIG pictureNext week we will have the first FOMC of 2023. Market is expecting a 50bps hike to 5.00% next week. Note that the US10Y now is trading below the 11/2022 and 12/2022 EFFR. It seems the Market is not in agreement with the Fed. The market is OPPOSING the Fed. I think most likely the Market will continue to push the US10Y down, irrespective of rate hikes. This is in agreement with the MOVE index trending lower. The US10Y is important if you are trading the USDJPY. You can see that it follows CLOSELY the path of the US10Y. Looking at how things are, I would think that USDJPY would continue to FALL. I will talk a bit about trading USDJPY in a different posting. Good luck. P/S : Do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense. Shortby i_am_siewUpdated 222
Opportunity For Gold Is Coming IMOI think once in a lifetime opportunity for gold is coming soon. Hope you guys appreciate the chart. by BigPippinSpendingGs111
Weekend Update: Bond yields to move higherI received a request to update this chart. Thank you @Braeden2 The US30Y held it's wave 4 bottom in the .382% area of wave 3. The last time I posted this chart we had not yet embarked on our 5-wave pattern higher in what I'm counting as a wave 5. Today we see we have a wave 1 and 2 in place. Additionally, you'll notice how our recent wave 4 structure alternates with our previous wave 2 structure. We should have been expecting wave 4 to be deep and quick, were as our wave appears shallow and long. That is precisely what occurred. From here I would expect within the next month to begin to clearly subdivide in our wave 3 of 5 and target yields in the 4.294% to 4.529%. This would be for our wave 3. Upon that happening we'll need a 4 and then the ultimate destination for this structure is in the target box for wave 5. I've enjoyed the ongoing conversations in Trader-World about who is right?...The bond market or the Fed? I don't follow bonds closely, nor have I ever traded them, therefore I don't what constitutes victory for bonds or The Fed. But I will pose this question to those reading this...what does 4.895% yield on the 30y mean? Who wins, Bonds, The Fed, or both? Best to all, Chrisby maikisch4414
Bond Yields and Recessions (Update)I am reposting this important chart as I made some mistakes prior. Understanding the basics of Bonds is very important to traders/investors. Yields (interest rates) are like gravity to other asset classes. The higher yields go the more gravity on other asset classes. Most are unaware of this simple rule bc most traders today have never had to deal with inflation and rising rates. I can't go too much more in explaining it all here so we will talk more about the chart. First off for those of you who subscribe to MMT out there, you should know the theory that a central bank sets rates is simply wrong. The Free Market determines rates (Yield) based on economic conditions. Next pay attention to the red line EFFR (Effective FED Fund Rate) it is almost always chasing the FREE market up or down. Right off the bat what is obvious is that all rates have a tendency of bunching up before a recession. What is also obvious is that a recession has not occurred while FED is raising rates. Yet I hear many "experts" (people with large followings nothing more) call for a recession for months now. For months they have been horribly wrong. Again unaware of yet another very simple rule. I call them "FED PIVITOORS". What else is obvious? During a recession, short-term yields & longer-term yields spread out and remain so during the recovery. Then start to bunch up but still that in itself is not a recession. In fact, it is not until FED is done raising rates for a while that a recession follows and rates start to fan out and FED chases the free market by lowering short-term rates. While no single chart is the holy grail of analysis this particular chart right now is not in a recession. That should be clear to all. Saying that we are getting closer to a recession is okay, we must avoid saying "something bad will happen eventually" it's kinda useless info. At the same time if you wait to see the chart reflect a recession, well it will be too late in most cases. There are other things to look at when forecasting a recession that is much more helpful.by RealMacro2222
US10Y MACD crossoverUS10Y spiking again. Bullish MACD crossover noticed today. Markets to slide downwards.by amitabc1114
10yr Yield bullish setup. One of the traders in the Forex Analytix community (Grasshopper) pointed out that the 10yr Yields are developing an inverted head and shoulder pattern which may lead (on a breakout) to higher yields near term. Considering a false breakdown happened last week on January 19th below horizontal support, this builds the case that was the head. A break of the neckline at 3.53% could lead to a rise towards the 3.80 in the coming weeks. A rise in yields could be a warning sign for US Dollar bears too.Longby ForexAnalytix113
US10Y head and shoulders patternHello friends As we can see, the 10-year bond is forming a head and shoulders pattern I agree that it is bullish I am bullish on 10-year bondsLongby farzad_abdollahzade118
US05YWhenever trendline provides resistance twice the price is destined to fall down as it can not deal with such heavy resistanceLongby Dhruv7har2
Short- midterm bullish for stocks and cryptoBullish for stocks and crypto. Last Bear market rally before further down - MaybeLongby Acid_snusjus111
US10Y Approaching the 1D MA50.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is on a 3 day rebound following a hit on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is the natural Resistance, but if crossed, we can expect a long-term peak at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down pattern that started on the October 21 High. A closing below the 1D MA200 first, would largely be a long-term sell signal that could break below the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Channel and target the 2.510% Support (August 02 Low) and make contact with the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), which has been our long-term bearish target since October. The 1D RSI can also offer sell entries on its own Lower Highs trend-line. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE ๐, FOLLOW โ , SHARE ๐ and COMMENT โ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐Shortby TradingShot5519
US10Y DropThe Daily timeframe is on a bearish ttrend and is making a pull back. The 4H has a double top and this confirms selling pressure. We are waiting for price to make a third touch of the trendline. This will hit out supply zone where we will wait for entry tiggers.Shortby Tiroyamodimo222
US10Y Dump All Year. Stocks, Crypto pump for 3 years.US government bonds are going to crash. This means nations, banks, mega corporations will pull their money out and back into the stock market. The tech money will go back into coins like truebit and future coin ftrLongby bitcoinfundmanager446
Big Four Macro: Bonds Part 2In last weekโs macro outlook post we covered the outlook for intermediate and long bond yields. The analysis concluded that the long term technical trend has changed from lower to flat/neutral but that more work (i.e., a higher low) is needed to definitively turn the macro trend higher. That piece is linked below in the related idea section. 10 Year Yield Weekly: After peaking at 4.34% in October, 10s have declined into the first confluence of support. The confluence is defined by 2 channel bottoms, the fibonocci retracement of the last wave higher, an internal trend line (not shown and slightly violated) across the 3.04% - 3.25% highs and the last violated pivot @ 3.25%. Additionally, the move from 4.34% has covered about 100 basis points, consistent with the last two primary corrections. This is the markets first solid opportunity since the October high to test meaningful support. Either, it bases here for a move back toward the 4.34% October high or fails and cuts much deeper, perhaps as far as the .382% retracement (2.86%) of the entire structural bear market. If the market does successfully base, the nature of the move should offer significant insight into the balance of the year. Early in my career I was obsessed with Elliott. But after years of effort, I wasn't able to develop it as a reliable trading methodology. However, those years led me to believe that markets do often move in three and five wave sequences. But if I can't immediately identify an obvious primary sequence with a quick glance, then a count isn't reliable enough to use. Even then it is only useful only for context and then only in conjunction with a broader understanding of price volume relationships and trend. Bond yields appear to have completed a clear five wave move from the March 2020 low to the October 2022 high, leaving them vulnerable to correction and suggesting an intermediate high that should hold for several months. 10 Year Ultra Futures Daily: When a weekly chart is resting at an important juncture, I like to drop down to the daily chart in order to assess the likely hood of it holding or failing. For this view, in order to assess volume I switch from yield to price. Ultras are into a zone of strong daily perspective resistance defined by the confluence of the .50% retracement of the 122-21 - 113-15 decline, the December 2022 high, volume profile, and the June 2022 pivot low @ 121-19. It is also taking more volume to produce gains, suggesting that supply is becoming more aggressive as the market moves higher. Three drives to a high (see linked related ideas) and the failed breakout above the 122-18 pivot all increase the odds of the resistance holding. A show of weakness that destroys the uptrend would strongly suggest a completed test and set the stage for a broader pullback. Seasonal Tendency (US30Y Futures): Bond prices have very strong seasonal tendencies. They tend to set important intermediate highs early in the year before declining into mid-year. Conclusions: The monthly/macro trend has changed from lower to neutral, but yields need to make a higher low before definitively making the case that the new trend is higher. The weekly chart is testing a solid support confluence. The outcome of that test should help define the markets behavior over the next 3-4 months. The weekly correction that began at the October high does not look complete. The daily perspective rally that began last October is faltering. Signs of supply are developing and reliable seasonal tendencies are turning negative (yield up/price down). When combined with a strong confluence of weekly support there is a good chance that yields will begin to move back toward their October highs. The characteristics of that rally will be important in determining if it is simply a test of the October high that eventually leads to a much deeper retracement (2.50% or so) or the beginning of a new leg higher. A failure to hold the support confluence would strongly suggest that a much larger retracement of the two year old bear market was unfolding. Targets for that retracement would fall in the 2.25-.50% zone. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur. Editors' picksby CMT_Association1717190
UK 10 Year Bonds 3D short targetThe chart points show mostly bearish signals as the price peaks and starts breaking down through several major levels across 3 timeframes. The short target is set at a level where the next largest support levels overlap on all 3 timeframes and the short is set at the extrapolated max 3D resistance.Shortby cosmic_indicators2
yield ratio vs bond priceillustrating the overshoots from yield ratio formula (1/rate) when compared to bond price formula 100 - rateby wisely381