The DXY and the US 10-year yield fell sharply following Friday’s better than expected non-farm payrolls report for the month of December 2021 which saw the pair reject the 50-day MA at 17.30 as well as the blue 38.2% Fibo retracement level of 17.44. The dollar started this week on the back foot in the local session which has allowed the rand to test the psychological rate of 17.00.
The pair is currently oscillating between its 200-day MA at 16.76 and the 50-day MA at 17.30 with no clear direction as of yet. As per my weekly timeframe idea (link in the description) a failed break below the support range between 16.80-16.86 could see the pair break above the 50-day MA and higher towards the blue 61.8% Fibo retracement rate of 17.87. A break below 16.80 will however allow the rand to pull the pair to the orange 50% Fibo retracement level of 16.36.
In terms of technical indicators, the RSI is showing divergence which is rand negative and has me leaning towards a break above 17.30 over a break below 16.76. The MACD is currently holding an unconvincing buy signal so I’m not placing any significance on it at the moment.
I’ll update the idea since I’m not giving any conclusive direction for the pair.
The pair is currently oscillating between its 200-day MA at 16.76 and the 50-day MA at 17.30 with no clear direction as of yet. As per my weekly timeframe idea (link in the description) a failed break below the support range between 16.80-16.86 could see the pair break above the 50-day MA and higher towards the blue 61.8% Fibo retracement rate of 17.87. A break below 16.80 will however allow the rand to pull the pair to the orange 50% Fibo retracement level of 16.36.
In terms of technical indicators, the RSI is showing divergence which is rand negative and has me leaning towards a break above 17.30 over a break below 16.76. The MACD is currently holding an unconvincing buy signal so I’m not placing any significance on it at the moment.
I’ll update the idea since I’m not giving any conclusive direction for the pair.
