Fcpo1
FCPO TRADING : 333) bracketing market (II)this is haidojo and the number is 333...
"why reality in trading is much harder than those you see in advertisements? ".
"Those ads which showed you it is very simple. JUz try these 3 simple steps and u can make millions."
"made your setup, went shopping, then when u came home, you ald made some profits."
"...and dun forget those who showed you lamboghini, bikinis, lavish life-styles or traveling around the world with juz internet connections and your device to connect to internet".
"Well, the answer is simple."
"They forget to tell u that there are drawdowns. They forget to tell u that part of the trades are losers. Sometimes, market doesn't behave like what u expect it to. Actually, market always does whatever it wants whenever it wants."\
SO, back to reality. In August, fcpo-OCt/nov hit the highest point on 12th Aug. When everything seemed like it was going to move higher, then it reversed and went down. The "orange" circle that u see was a false breakout. After that, we had several attempts to retest 4330 resistance but it failed and rollover all the way down. Till now. Today is 9th Sept 2022 and we anticipate the price to break lower to the downside, exiting below 3500 and testing 3350-3300...and of course, see if market got throw tantrums and behaves oddly. Fingers cross.
**plan your trade and trade your plan... gud luck**
resistance : 4180-4340
current support : 3500-3600
WARNING!
RISK DISCLAIMER : this is juz a trading idea...trading stocks, futures , cryptos, warrants, CFDs, spreads, options or forex might incur a huge risk to your account/funds… DON’T LOSE MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD …any idea(s) of trading in this episode SHALL NOT be regarded as a hint of BUYING or SELLING. It is MERELY a trading journal and it has been used for educational purpose only… this is not a signal service channel and DON'T TREAT IT LIKE ONE!
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK!
FCPO - Bearish flag pattern breakoutComment :
1) FCPO is forming a bearish flag pattern in a downtrend since the peak in May 2022. This pattern is expecting a further movement down at the end of the flag.
2) The condition of a bearish flag including associate with descending trading volume during flag is forming. Eventually, FCPO has breakout below the low of the lower channel on 1st Sept.
Support & Resistance:
R : Resistance A
S : Supporting B & 2125
DISCLAIMER :
Analysis above SOLELY for case study purpose, not a PROFESSIONAL ADVISE. This analysis does not provide any trading advise and buy or sell. Trade at your own risk. Trade only after you have acknowledged and accepted the risks involved.
Direction of FCPO #5As you guys can see, it is what we predict from previous our chart analysis. It is following the direction that I have been showed. So now lets see either the market can rebound and go up towards the strong resistance ( yellow box ) or it will continue downwards. Besides that, do not neglect that we can see there is a form of pattern have shown which is Head And Shoulder ( HNS ), same goes to this concept, have to break the neckline, and then we can make decision where is the direction of the market. We will see tomorrow to see what market brings to us.
FCPO TRADING : 330) bracketing market this is haidojo and the number is 330...
First half of July month, it was a downtrend. Frm the low of 3500, it rebounded to the 1st high at 4080, then another round of selling to hit 3636-3700, another rebound came and hit higher at 4310 at the end of JUly, which is exactly the same high as the previous high at 4300...now, we wait for breakout of either side to confirm the trend...IF it breaks abv the high of 4300 and creates higher-high, THEN new uptrend has emerged. IF it falls below the current support of 3600-3700, THEN the price will fall further and recent rebound is a false alarm.
**plan your trade and trade your plan... gud luck**
resistance : 4240-4340
current support : 3500-3600
WARNING!
RISK DISCLAIMER : this is juz a trading idea...trading stocks, futures , cryptos, warrants, CFDs, spreads, options or forex might incur a huge risk to your account/funds… DON’T LOSE MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD …any idea(s) of trading in this episode SHALL NOT be regarded as a hint of BUYING or SELLING. It is MERELY a trading journal and it has been used for educational purpose only …this is not a signal service channel and DON'T TREAT IT LIKE ONE!
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK!
FCPO TRADING : 328) a possible short rebound? this is haidojo and the number is 328 ...
A brief review of the whole June month, we could see that fcpo-Aug22 and fcpo-Sept22 were faced with a great fall or a heavy rollover all-the-way down frm RM6k ++ till yesterday, when the price had fallen below the RM4k borderline, a full 2000-pts ++ drop, marking the end of the era of RM4k, which started way back in July 2021, last year. As the hyperinflation has reared its ugly head again and threatening the whole economy of the planet, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) had made a drastic decision last night, by increasing the interest rate to 25 basis. Fcpo-sept22 hit the bottom at 3740 on 6th July 2022 after the announcement of hike in opr (overnight policy rate) by 25 basis to currently 2.25% by BNM, and most of the economists are expecting another increase of interest rate is imminent in September this year. So, folks, fasten your seat belts and ready for the roller-coaster ride!
As what is happening today, fcpo-sept22 is heading for a rebound and it is difficult to judge whether the rebound is authentic or juz a false one, which is well-known as the fake "bull-trap". Also, as I have seen most traders are putting their analysis on the boards, so I wanto put mine too...(hehe, juz "busy-body").
Here is what I think might happen or somethg to watch out. fcpo-sept22 will face first wave of selling at the resistance level at 4180 and if it falls frm here onwards, then we have bear confirmed...and no second thought on that. However, if it still seeks to rebound further passing that 1st resistance level at 4180, then we shall see some heavier sellers at the range of 4380-4480 , the higher resistance level and also the critical ones, since if the price shoots higher frm this, THEN we might have a reversal..."bullish rotation" is said to be happening and we might wanto turn into buying/long. Till then, if the price is ransacked here and pull down making a rollover all the way down, THEN we shall still see it as a temporary rebound and BEAR still wins.
There is a bit of information overload today. Hence, you might want to get a hard look at this for a gud sense. That's all for the update today.
**plan your trade and trade your plan... gud luck**
overhead resistance : 4074-4100 (happening now? wtf?)
resistance : 4180 (my expectation of 1st wave selling)
higher resistance : 4380-4480 (critical resistance, deciding Bull/Bear)
current support : 3880
lower support : 3480
WARNING!
RISK DISCLAIMER : this is juz a trading idea...trading stocks, futures , cryptos, warrants, CFDs, spreads, options or forex might incur a huge risk to your account/funds… DON’T LOSE MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD… any idea(s) of trading in this episode SHALL NOT be regarded as a hint of BUYING or SELLING. It is MERELY a trading journal and it has been used for educational purpose only… this is not a signal service channel and DON'T TREAT IT LIKE ONE!
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK!
Palm and crude oil long term bullish? R u sure?! 21/June/221)On Charts : Charts consist of 3-Dimensions - The X-factor ( Time or Cycle ), The Y- factor ( Price Geometry ), AND The Z-factor ( The Speed ).. 2)On Elliot Wave / Market Structure : Unlike Textbook written rule : ALL Impulsive wave comprise of ONLY a-b-c sub-waves NOT 1,2,3,4,5 waves.. AND there is NO Truncated 5th wave BUT ONLY wrong wave counts...
Disclaimer
FCPO - A Larger Picture of this bearish moveAfter a few bearish days, I turn to the larger timeframe for a larger picture of the price / trend .
Bearish move this week crossed the Weekly trendline with strong momentum.
I see price continue moving slowly in the next few weeks before another bearish run towards the 4500 level.
Consider this as the leg 1 of its bearish move, it created a lower low. And then rebalance for a few candles before another huge candle.
Estimated price to reach target at reversal zone around: Aug - Oct this year.
If you liked this idea or if you have your own idea about it, please do not hesitate to write in the comments.
Thank you
FCPO TRADING : 327) gartleys in the playthis is haidojo and the number is 327 ...
Juz a brief update...2 gartleys in the view...
1st one, possible reversal at 6310...counter-trend trade, cannot hold too long...
2nd gartley, possible reversal at 6080...another counter-trend trade, same issue...cannot hold too long...(this is what I probably would do, no indicator of buy/sell, trade on your own risk)
9th June 2022
That's all for the update today.
*plan your trade and trade your plan... gud luck*
resistance : 6650-7080 (6310 possible reversal point)
lower support : 5380 (daily critical support)
support : 6310-6400
WARNING!
RISK DISCLAIMER : this is juz a trading idea...trading stocks, futures , cryptos, warrants, CFDs, spreads, options or forex might incur a huge risk to your account/funds… DON’T LOSE MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD …any idea(s) of trading in this episode SHALL NOT be regarded as a hint of BUYING or SELLING. It is MERELY a trading journal and it has been used for educational purpose only…
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK!
FCPO TRADING : 325) in the crossroadsthis is haidojo and the number is 325 ...
For the first half of the May, price moved in downtrend until it hit bottom at 5925 on 19th May22. After that, it made a series of jagged uptrend and here we are...at the crossroad of 6400, going down we see some cushion of support at 6310, and 6080../higher level we could expect some resistance near 6650, 7080...
As for the diagram, you could see "HL - NSH --ISL" they stand for "Higher-Low, New Structure High and Initial Structure Low". In this sequence, normally I would expect a reversal to happen where I might shift to looking for range for a short position, but this one is a bit special...as price kinda scurrying right below the support-turn-resistance line at 6310 and refused to give in. So, Bear hasn't won yet. Not quite yet. Now as the price moves back abv the support line of 6310, then we could see some momentum moving upwards but till more higher-highs and new higher-lows are formed, we are not sure whether this is a sideway move or just a crazy Bull trying to warming up...
2nd June 2022
That's all for the update today.
*plan your trade and trade your plan... gud luck*
resistance : 6650-7080 (6310 possible reversal point)
lower support : 5380 (daily critical support)
support : 6310-6400
WARNING!
RISK DISCLAIMER : this is juz a trading idea...trading stocks, futures , cryptos, warrants, CFDs, spreads, options or forex might incur a huge risk to your account/funds… DON’T LOSE MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD …any idea(s) of trading in this episode SHALL NOT be regarded as a hint of BUYING or SELLING. It is MERELY a trading journal and it has been used for educational purpose only…
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK!
CPO Unstoppable Rocket? Or…. Ranging?What’s other factors would continue to move palm oil prices?
1. India imports hit 12-months low on sky high prices in CPO. This may led to demand further decline as buyers are price sensitive as it relies on imports for 60% of its needs. Currently, India rely on existing stockpiles and incoming domestic rapeseed crop to meet domestic demand
2. Revision of export restriction from Indonesia as food protectionism grows. Companies need to allocate 30% of exports for home market. Government are taking steps to safeguard domestic food supplies after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
3. Malaysia announced, the border restrictions is entering endemic phase start from 1st of April 2022 , which also means that more foreign workers arrive in May and June.
4. Soybean oil lower after USDA (United States of Department Agriculture) monthly forecasts showed world soybean supplies above expectations.
5. Declined in crude oil prices reduce demand for biodiesel blending.
Technical View:
1. Again shooting star formed as profit taking after touched on historical high at 7268 which indicate sell signal.
2. Stochastic K% line is moving up in weekly and crossed up in daily chart which indicates market likely to resume its uptrend
We have mixed signals this week. We expect market may move within range of 6500-7100.
Suggestion Trade:
Short if stay below 6600
Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 6783
Target Profit level (support level)
TP1 6417 TP2 6051
Long if stay above 7000
Target Stop Loss (support level) 6817
Target Profit level (resistance level)
TP1 7183 TP2 7549
** DISCLAIMER: FOR INFO ONLY. TRADING CARRIES RISK **
CPO Continue above 7000? Or Ready for Correction?FCPO declined by nearly 8% on last Friday and closed at 6276 as profit taking took place, but posted 2nd weekly gains after touched on historical high at 7108.
So, what’s make palm oil now the costlier edible oil among the 4 major edible oils?
Global commodities rallied following EU bans certain Russian banks from SWIFT bank payment system which aimed to stuttering the Russia economy and introduces further restrictions.
The war expected to disrupt the processing and export of Ukraine oilseeds crops for at least 1 month and curb flow of sunflower seed to the European Union.
2. India’s reserve is facing a depletion in stocks levels with a lack of shipments of sunflower oil from the Black Sea Region.
India requested Indonesia temporary reduce their biodiesel blending rules and increase the exports to mitigate disrupted supplies of sunflower oil.
3. Rising concerns on adequate palm supply levels for post-Ramadan restocking.
While expectations of higher productions in coming months as high output cycle kicks in and government also announced new migrant workers to work in plantation sector capped gains.
4. Soybean oil prices closed lower as profit taking and rainfall in Brazil and Argentina eased dry weather conditions.
Technical View:
1. Shooting star formed at resistance level of 7100, which indicates market losing uptrend momentum and also a reversal signal
2. Stochastic K% line is crossing down in both weekly and daily chart which indicates downtrend signal
We expect market may have short term retracement with immediate support level at 5825
Suggestion Trade:
Short if stay below 6200
Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 6365
Target Profit level (support level)
TP1 6035 TP2 5705
Long if stay above 6800
Target Stop Loss (support level) 6635
Target Profit level (resistance level)
TP1 6965 TP2 7295
**Disclaimer: Trading Carries Risks**
Reversal Signs in Palm Oil Market?Market closed slightly higher at 5573 last Friday after tighter range move.
Some key factors continue to weigh on palm oil prices:
1. Indonesia had expanded its export permit requirement for palm oil products where exporters must sell 20% of their exports at home and with price cap to other derivatives. This further raising fears of global supply disruptions. The regulation valid from Feb 15.
2. Latest Malaysia Palm Oil Board data showed lower inventories and production due to labor shortage and flooding; lower exports due to rising palm oil prices
However, analysts’ expectations that current high price not sustainable
3. some participants expecting production to pick up in March as Malaysia Government targeting full scale reopening of international border
4. . Soybean oil continued uptrend, as LaNina brought in hot weather across key South America growing areas and strong demand on US soybean
5. Strong crude oil prices amid ongoing worries about supply disruptions from the Russia and Ukraine crisis
Technical View:
1. Market uptrend paused with hanging man formed at resistance level of 5750, indicates reversal signal
2. Stochastic reached overbought level and K% line is crossing down which signalled reversal signal
We expect market may have short term retracement if market unable to stay above 5500.
Suggestion Trade:
Short if stay below 5365
Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 5478
Target Profit (support level)
TP1 5252 TP2 5026
Long if stay above 5685
Target Stop Loss (support level) 5572
Target Profit (resistance level)
TP1 5798 TP2 6024
FTSE FCPO Palm Crude Oil Futures #FCPO #FCPO1!Palm Crude Oil Futures FCPO short-term still looking bullish.
Profit Chip of PFT indicator at 38%, if surpass 50% greater chance to reach upper trend line resistance @5500
Bull Bear Energy (BBD) indicator show Dark Green bar turning into Light Green (momentum turns weak) - short term correction on way.
#fcpo #fcpo1! #bursasaham #palmoilfutures #commodities #tradingfutures #ftseklci
#technicalanalysis #technicalindicator #technicalchart #mcdx #bbd #trendline #chartpattern
Disclaimer:
This published Idea is solely for the purpose of opinion sharing only, and should not be used as investment advice or recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Get your trade advise from a legit broker, your trade is solely your own responsibility.
Thank you.
CPO Extended Gains to Record HighPalm oil prices gone up higher as expected and closed at 5322 after posted record high at 5327.
Factors continue to affect palm oil prices:
1. New export permit policy in Indonesia which required exporters of vegetable oil to gain approval for their shipments and declare their domestic sales with the objective to ensure that sufficient supply of cooking oils in domestic market. New regulation may curb supplies from Indonesia and led buying spree in Malaysia. Besides, India likely to shift their imports to soybean and sunflower oils as replacement.
2. Bullish sentiment in global oil market continue to support palm oil prices.
3. Strong gains in soybean oil following latest weather forecast that turned into hot and dry weather in Argentina and Southern Brazil which may result further yield deterioration.
Technical View:
1. Market break new high and closed above 5300
2. Stochastic remains uptrend signal
Suggestion Trade:
Long if stay above 5300
Target Stop Loss (support level) 5100
Target Profit (resistance level)
TP1 5425 TP2 5525 TP3 5625