CPO Breaking Historical High 5220Palm Oil prices extended gains and closed sharply higher at 4993. As market eyeing on upcoming MPOB data to assess the impact on production from flooding in recent weeks disrupting harvesting activities . MPOB data is scheduled to release its Dec data on Monday.
Factors continue to affect palm oil prices:
1. Ongoing flash floods in several states continue to weigh on palm oil prices
2. Seasonal low production cycle during the 1st half year with higher demand expected ahead of Chinese New Year.
3. Labor Shortage remained key issue
4. Higher CPO prices raising worries over stiff competition from Indonesia
5. Persistent supply concerns in Soybean Oil due to hot and dry weather in South America served support in palm oil prices
Technical View:
1. Market closed sharply higher at 4993, right below level of 5000
2. Stochasctic shows K% line is crossing up which indicates market turning up and resume uptrend.
We expect market continue to move higher if market stays above level of 5000.
Suggestion Trade:
Long if stay above 5000
Target Stop Loss (support level) 4850
Target Profit (resistance level)
TP1 5100 TP2 5250 TP3 5350
Fcpo1
Can Palm Oil Prices Hold at 4000?Palm oil prices slumped and closed at 4408. Last week palm oil prices broken support level at 4700 and touched on weekly low at 4245.
There were several factors we can look into:
1. Market plunged about 4.5% on Wed after cargo surveyor reported larger than expected drop in export
2. Price movement in global vegetable oils market also affected palm oil prices
3. Stronger crude oil prices has make palm oil prices more attractive
4. Tightening production due to labor shortage continue serve support to palm oil prices
5. Stronger dollar and weakening Ringgit Malaysia also helps in palm oil prices
Technical view:
1. Long Black bar formed which indicates bearish signs
2. support level at 4500 broken, market further test support level at 4200
3. Stochastic level= remain bearish sign
Suggestion Trade:
maintain bearish view for FCPO next week with immediate resistance level at 4545
Initial Short if market below 4545
Stop Loss (Resistance level) 4845
Target Profit (Support level)
TP1 4200 TP2 4025 TP 3875
Palm Oil Prices Back to the Range of 4700-5200 Again?Palm oil prices closed higher and back to the range of 4700-5200.
Several Factors that make the palm oil prices back to the range of 4700-5200 as below:
1. Weakness in soybean oil after US raised proposal to scale back biofuel blending mandates
2. Shortage of Workers due to coronavirus pandemic & higher cost of recruitment as palm oil producers make changes in response to accusations of forced labour
3. Record high fertilizer prices
4. MPOB showed higher inventories offset by lower production and higher exports
Technical view:
1. Doji formed after range trading between 4724-4949- signal market struggle for new direction
2. Harami indicates reversal signal
3. Stochastic level= remain bearish signs
Suggestion Trade:
Buying at support 4700; Stop Loss 4600; Target Profit 4950-5000
Selling at resistance 5000; Stop Loss 5200; Target Profit 4750-4800
Disclaimer: Trading Carries Risks.
Happy Trading!! Cheers.
** DISCLAIMER: FOR INFO ONLY. TRADING CARRIES RISK **
Can CPO Sustain Above 4500?Palm oil plunged as expected last week. Market hit weekly low at 4567 and closed at our 1st resistance level.
Main reason of the weakness in CPO market due to the uncertainties over the impact Omicron coronavirus variant which dented demand for CPO.
Technical view:
1. Immediate resistance level: 4700-4730
2. Stochastic level= Sell Signal remain
Suggestion Trade:
Initial Short position
Stop Loss at resistance level: 5000-5100
Target Profit level (support level)
S1 4500 S2 4385-4400 S3 4200
Disclaimer: Trading Carries Risks.
Happy Trading, Cheers.
Palm Oil Breaking Ranging level 4700-5220?Palm Oil market has been ranging for the past few weeks:
Reasons behind as below:
1. Rising in new COVID-19 cases in Europe (- export demand= price drop)
2. Weakness in Crude Oil and Soybean Oil (- demand= price drop)
3. Weather concerns (- supply = price up)
4. Labor shortage (- supply = price up)
5. RM weakening (+ demand = price up)
Technical View:
1. Strong resistance level at 5000
2. Stochastic at Overbought level, K% & D% line cross down (Sell sign)
Suggestion Trade:
Short
Stop Loss (Resistance level) 5220
Target Profit (Support level) 4650, 4500, 4385-4400
Happy Trading!! Cheers.
** DISCLAIMER: FOR INFO ONLY. TRADING CARRIES RISK
When will FCPO STOP Ranging 4750-5220?Palm oil markets has been ranging between 4750-5220 since Oct 2021, topics remained hot within the palm oil industry including
1. labor force shortage,
2. global supply and demand concerns amid resurgence in COVID-19 cases especially in Europe.
Uncertainty in
3. related edible oil due to weather concerns and
4. OPEC+ decisions to maintains its output
which continued to serve support in palm oil industry.
Furthermore,
5. dollar strengthened helped to made palm oil prices more attractive compare to other vegetables oils.
Palm oil market likely to continue maintain its ranging until weightage in issues mentioned above showed unbalance.
Trading Strategies remained neutral, or you may initiate ranging trading strategies.
Long when near support 4750-4850
Short when near resistance 5100- 5220
Good Luck & Happy Trading.
Cheers
Palm Oil Marching towards 5220 ???Palm oil bounced as bargain buying and persistent sentiment of tight supply moving into Nov and Dec.
Technical Views:
1. CPO prices landed at support level of 4500 and bounce
2. Uptrend Line Well holding
3. Stochastic maintain uptrend signal
In short, maintain ranging to uptrend view in coming week.
immediate support level 4500
immediate resistance level 5220
if unable to break resistance level, double top may form and led to another selling trend.
Good Luck and Happy Trading~
Cheers
Will Palm Oil Back to 5000?FCPO formed hammer at immediate support level at 4750 by last Friday and bounce following MPOB data today.
MPOB data showed flat to lower production and extended labor crunch slowed harvesting activity continued.
Technical view,
1. touched support level at 4750 and bounced
2. hammer formed at support level
3. stochastic at oversold level
Can seek for long entry with immediate resistance level at 5100 and immediate support level at 4800.
FCPO Weekly View: maintain ranging between 4750-5250Palm oil prices remains at 5,000 last week. As market remained concerns over low production and inventories due to labor shortage. However, reducing in export demand capped gains.
Market likely to move within the range of 4750-5250 in near term, until market break from the price range and sustain above 5250 or below 4750, then follow by new direction.
While Stochastic shows signs of uptrend reversed, as well as a shooting star candle formed at the resistance threshold at 5300.
High Prices Capped Upside, Lower Stock Limited Downside FCPOPalm oil prices remained strong due to rising in export demand while labor shortage, lower productions and inventories issues remained.
Palm oil market major trend remained UP.
However, near term likely to move within the range of 4950 (support) -5250 (resistance).
Strategies to apply:
Long when near Support level
Short when near Resistance level
With smallest stop loss apply until market break the ranging box.
FCPO 14 Sept 2021 : Trade Bullish Flag1. Yesterday 15min TF consist of 3 inside up, Bearish engulfing.
2. Today's price has fake breakout when price open below yesterday low and price close back inside the range for 15min TF.
3. 5min TF has a bullish engulfing pattern.
4. Notice the bullish flag pattern.
Strategy :
1. Wait for a breakout the flag pattern
2. 15min price pullback and maybe retest EMA14.
3. Bullish reversal CS to find entry.
Target TP is 4390~4400
FCPO 13 Sept 2021 : Trade 3 Inside Up1. Price break down trendline.
2. 3 inside up CS pattern at 15min TF.
3. 5min TF breaks market structure when price break the nearest resistance.
Strategy :
1. Wait for pullback and rejection CS @ 15min TF.
2. Potential buy zone at confluence area of uptrend and downtrend line.
3. another potential zone is when the price rejects EMA14 at 15min TF.
FCPO 13 Sept 2021 : Reversal CS at Gann and Resistance Level1. Price rejection near the resistance + Gann level after upward movement
2. Trade bit risky because the price is able to break EMA14+EMA50.
3. Set sell limit order at the open of bearish rejection CS.
4. Stop loss order is 1 x ATR from 5min TF = 16tick from highest rejection CS.
5. Target profit is at the nearest support or when 15min have bullish reversal CS.
Outlook :
1. Since price break EMA50 up and down area means the price will be consolidated for time being until break either support/resistance.
2. Trading range around 60~100tick.
FCPO 10 Sept 2021 : Break supportFCPO is dynamic..
1. Yesterday's price have a strong bearish movement in the morning session followed by rejection in 15min TF and formed a tweezer bottom at 5min TF.
2. Bullish does not have momentum after 15min TF has a bearish engulfing pattern.
3. Price rejected EMA14 multiple times with a bearish engulfing pattern indicate strong sellers.
4. Today morning price has another significant bearish engulfing and rejected again EMA14.
5. Price break support zone shows strong seller.
The entry :
1. Confirmation price breakout support @ 15min TF.
2. 15min price pullback with rejection CS
3. 5min have a bearish engulfing pattern.
4. Set sell limit order at the open rejection CS of 15min TF.
5. SL set using 1xATR for 5min TF from the last high of rejection CS.
FCPO 9 Sept 2021 : Trade Tweezer Btm1. 15min TF have doji CS indicate indecisive condition. The next candle after Doji usually determines the next trend.
2. 5min TF have form tweezer bottom. Testing same level 4367.
3. Both TF have oversold stochastic. Higher probability for an uptrend.
4. Bullish trend will be strong if there is bullish engulf for 5min TF.
FCPO 9 Sept 2021 : Price back in range1. Yesterday's price was able to break the significant resistance.
2. Price in the previous range zone from 4413~4560 (134 tick range)
Strategy :
1. Wait for price pullback at the potential support area.
2. Look for bullish reversal CS pattern at 15min TF.
3. Entry confirmation at 5min TF when there is morning star/hammer/Bullish engulfing pattern.
4. Limit order at 5min TF base on interesting risk and reward ratio.