SpyI think this week will be a low volume chop into Core PCE with the moves coming in early in the A.M then chop the rest of the day..
Example : Tuesday Consumer confidence 30mins after open whcih should give a move for the next hour then chop rest of day.. Same with GDP Wed..
Last week market showed Bearish divergence With Dow, NYA and IWM all moving lower while nasdaq moved higher.
Dow jones daily chart.. rejected at 40k and trendline resistance. If the dow had been able to break over 40k i think the spy would have seen 540 last week
Closed below 20sma but right above 50sma... Things are neutral in this area , Bullish above 40k and bearish back below 50sma...
Same situation with NYA/ NYSE
IWM, performed the worst last week.. GME and AMC really pulled this down.. bearish below 202 (50sma).. bullish above 210..
GDP numbers wed should move small caps and cylicals but to break below the 50sma i think it would take a hot PCE friday and thats why i think it will be a tight trading range.
Nasdaq (IXIC)
17,000 is resistance this translates into 460 QQQ qnd 19,000 NQ.
Usually when Cylicals and small cap lead the way tech will soon follow. I think Nasdaq will retest 16,500 which is previous ATH and 447 gap close for QQQ . From there i expect a bounce...
Ok so those are the techs...
Now heres the opinion...
Dow is back under its previouse ATH and this is bearish.. you never want to drop back below the previous ATH.. Remember early this year when Aapl Tagged 197? The previous ATH from 2021 was 182.00. When aapl drop back below 182 price corrected to 165. Thats what i mean when i say you never want to drop back below previous ATH.. it takes alot of buyers to make a new ATH so those Stops are set there!
If QQQ CLOSES back under 449 (Previous ATH) then tech will Correct into June Interest rate decision.
The daily money flow just lit up on all tech sectors , spy and qqq.
If you look at things from a weekly chart we're Either forming a head for a H&S or a Top for a double top.. either way things will require another 2 weeks of chop to round off.. which could mean a 2% range trade across the indexes..
Spy - think we get 523 gap close this week... 21ema is also in that area so becareful of the bounce that will most likely follow. Like i said above, the people who bought the first break above 525 will step up there to protect their positions. 532 is resistance..
I'll go over smaller price action, and entries on Twitter.
Consumer confidence and GDP usually moves Dow,IWM, and NYA.. if they are recieved bullish then expect a pop there and weakness on Tech which means Stay away from Spy which will be caught in a tug of war (Chop)
Vix, 10yr , Dxy all got rejecred thursday at their 20sma.. Market slides if and when they break over