Year end #Bund yield warningUh, oh.... so close. Get ready! "Long" call here means we expect higher yields after a breakout --> that translates into SELL the Bund!Longby Kumowizard114
DE10Y Retraces March Gap RiskAs yields continue to push lower across both sides of the Atlantic technical trigger points project a break out of range. Fundamental interpretation from ECB's Lagarde's recent commentary in a interview on OCT 15 gives room for the implication that could see "cheaper yields, and richer bonds in the interim". Lagarde stated the following "Rebound is uneven across sectors and regions; financial risks in EZ remain elevated; banks currently have sufficiently robust capital and liquidity buffers; headline inflation likely to remain negatives over the coming months, turning positive in 2021; stand ready to adjust all instruments" Technicals remain triggered here as long as we remain below the ECB deposit rate. If we retain above -61bps and push the -50 figure catalysts such as election, EURIBOR, and future central bank policy changes could trigger a break back toward the -45 handle. Continuation through monthly closing range coupled with EURO ZONE negative yield pricing across the peripherals I'd be looking for a test of all time lows. Once a correction completes, we would look for a potential reversal back through levels not seen since EUR credit crisis. by MKNAOMII1
German 10 year IHS targeting positive interest rateEuro will fly. Dollar will crater.Longby UnknownUnicorn6344284
ridethepig | A Decisive Break in BundsThe positional strength in Bunds was just too strong to contain, the rest is obvious. Now play the topside, retraces into buyers jurisdictions at -0.35 and -0.50 will attract a lot of selling interest in bunds (hence pushing yields up) and triggering the capitulation. We are still set for an emphasis of consolidation across Global Equities, this is still all part of the 'knee jerk reaction' phase. Many large hands were caught badly on the sharp moves lower, a legendary retrace is offering the opportunity for final repositioning flows for a secondary leg lower into 2021/2022. Before we can then move higher for the rest of the decade. For those tracking German Equities, the overshoots in DAX were very bad: Strong Resistance 0.15% <=> Soft Resistance -0.15% <=> Mid point -0.30% <=> Soft Support -0.35% <=> Strong Support -0.50% This leg higher in Yields is no surprises for those tracking the conversations on the eurobonds. The breakup in Bunds will also carry important implications for the EURUSD chart and 'Eurobond' positional flows: " So we are gradually getting round to what is an important component in the process of formation in the currency. Like a trojan horse, Eurobonds are being pushed in from the mounting political and geopolitical pressure. The initial 500bn EUR will still require approval from the block, and may not be a huge sum considering a historic crash, however it is an incremental step in a positive direction. It is not really about the effectiveness of the implementation, and this is decided from completely different factors and distribution is not that clear. " The market loves it...there is no question, we are seeing Europe strike a major expression on the world during this crisis and forming a protected outpost from an economic standpoint. The charming twist to this story, will be to track the pressure this applies to rates.I do not like the 'business as usual' story because of the reply: Clearly things are looking awful on the inside awful despite how politicians and media are selling the reopenings...I have never seen anything like this in my life, the unpleasant feeling that we will see a second round of cases in the Northern Hemisphere remains and that will need to be given some elbow room... Consumer confidence remains the one to track; the glimmer of panic appearing and equities will snap, the same move we have been tracking. All pullbacks should attract buying interest and outlook for Bunds remain in " Buy ". As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc! Longby ridethepigUpdated 5521
DE10Y - counter-trend move increasing ratesGerman 10-year yield is tracing wave C up that should complete intermediate wave 2. The most probable targets are -0.05 and 0.15. If yield crosses below -0.60 this analysis should be reviewed. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.Longby SkylinePro6
German 10-Year Bond Yield - lower yields aheadGerman yields seem to be tracing intermediate wave 3 down of primary wave 5. Yields should decrease below -0.91. If the level at -0.14 is touched, this scenario should be void as primary wave 5 down may have already been completed. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.Shortby SkylinePro5
ridethepig | DE 10-Year Yield DailyI will try to keep this one relatively short, a very important update to the German 10-year benchmark yield. This is one to track as it is coming after a fresh attempt of a breakdown in EURUSD for the NY open. Here we can see important macro forces in play with extreme risk on the radar via Coronavirus with large sharks being forced to reposition and rebalance defensively for risk-off flows. European Equities (DAX) will do the same dance: Although we did find an all be it temporary but rather traditional bid from the 50% retrace ... the move is clearly running out of steam and softening the near-term optimism around a temporary rebound. This will attract sellers and those with soft hands to start taking European risk off the table. In my books the mid and long term pictures are far clearer for Europe. This will be a lot easier to see when I upload the Weekly DE10Y Yield chart with the close. In any case, the key levels in the map to play are as follows: Strong Resistance -0.15% <=> Soft Resistance -0.25% <=> Mid point -0.34% <=> Soft Support -0.45% <=> Strong Support -0.60% This will also carry important implications for the EURUSD chart so a round of chart updates on the FX, Commodity and to a lot lesser extent French, Spanish and Italian Equities front necessary over the coming sessions. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc! Shortby ridethepigUpdated 21
Direction -0.40%The rectangle continue to offer a strong resitance, The non weekly close above the rectangle will push back the curs to the -0.30% the first step then continue to the previous low....!!!! by PinkybouhUpdated 7
ridethepig | Bund Yields & Rate DifferentialsOn the other side of the Atlantic, a timely update to Bund yields with interest rate traders starting to position for 2020. The better prints from Germany are in the spotlight and this increase in interest is accentuated by the next fortnight of data deprivation. Here I am looking for DE10Y to re-test -0.234 next week. EUR$ remains in play to the topside with all eyes on 1.25 long term targets: View on Bund Yields is shifting towards the buy side leaves me comfortable leaning into rallies with -0.077 and 0.081 as extension targets in the swing. Will get excited about the topside on a clean break of the highs in US Yields: Overall, I want to be constructive on Bund yields here given relative ECB change via Lagarde, much tougher towards the fiscal side and improving relations. On the Brexit front, the restrictions that are like to be incorporated into the new round of positioning for Brexit transitioning flows (should be completed by H120), are likely to be "conditional" on US interference into future trade deals and thus not damaging for European assets till Q320. For those tracking the rate differentials charts: While those tracking the flows in FX will know the EUR$ map already: The floor has been placed, expecting Euro to begin rallying as we enter into the final pages of the cycle. US numbers are holding but is clear they wont be able to hold more than Q1 2020. Smart money will now position before waters become choppy. Thanks for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments with your charts and views. Longby ridethepigUpdated 32
BUND: next level -0.2% then return to 0% But before we need to break the rectangle blue for an impulsion throught -0.2% then we can possible see a positive bund. Longby PinkybouhUpdated 5
EU 10Y government bond yieldsFrom bottom (most expensive) to top 10Y government bond yields. Germany, France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece. The pairing that stands out is Italy and Greece. by AdelHumayunPhDUpdated 1
Germany 10/5 flattening feels like the trendThe German 10/5 curve feels like it will continue to flatten. Looking visually at the chart there is a break in co-dependence between the 10/5 curve and German 10Y. I haven't looked at any auto-correlation dependency but there is some degree of serial correlation. A possible strategy would be a curve flattener with a slightly +ve DV01. Note above is purely an opinion out of academic curiosity and not a recommendation. by AdelHumayunPhD4
Could the Core EGB space be any more boringLooking at core EGB 10Y yields they look boring. Even though historically they have been low beta and relatively stable in the past, spreads have blow up (e.g. 2011/2012). What seems interesting is that given the slow down in EU economy and the pace of incoming QE spreads feel cheap. As always using Germany as the index I seeing resistance around -25 (bp) however between -40 and -45 are interesting levels. I think the trend seems strong but still feels like these levels are cheap. by AdelHumayunPhD3
German 5/10 vs 10Y yields10Y yields seems to be range bound. Perhaps -50 to -60. Feels like that will be the range until we see more numbers. But certainly feels like there is more to go. An EU slow down is priced in to some extent but there are still geo-political head winds to face going into the Q4. The 5/10 seems a little more trend driven and certainly there is potential for more flattening. Will watch this carefully. by AdelHumayunPhD3
Germany 10Y sell offInteresting to see how bunds have sold off last week. Clearly a little reversion but has much has changed? Are the attempts to stimulate global economic growth going to work? It still feels like at these levels its a buy. Selling off above -60 should be interesting. by AdelHumayunPhD1
German 5/10 Curve Flatter but can it go more German 5/10Y curve at 22bp. Wondering if it should be flatter since US@12by AdelHumayunPhD3
Germany 10Y@-70bp fasterWell Germany 10Y@-70bp was faster than I thought. I guess the saying of "Never sell Bunds is true". I am sure there is a retraction. I think that would just be an signal to buy more. by AdelHumayunPhD111
10Y Bunds next target -70bp?Looks like the German economy is contracting. Surly ECB will take a dovish tone going forward. I think -70 easily but can we -100bp this year? www.bloomberg.com by AdelHumayunPhD3