ridethepig
Long

ridethepig | Bund Yields & Rate Differentials

TVC:DE10Y   German Government Bonds 10 YR Yield
On the other side of the Atlantic, a timely update to Bund yields with interest rate traders starting to position for 2020. The better prints from Germany are in the spotlight and this increase in interest is accentuated by the next fortnight of data deprivation. Here I am looking for DE10Y to re-test -0.234 next week. EUR$ remains in play to the topside with all eyes on 1.25 long term targets:


View on Bund Yields is shifting towards the buy side leaves me comfortable leaning into rallies with -0.077 and 0.081 as extension targets in the swing. Will get excited about the topside on a clean break of the highs in US Yields:


Overall, I want to be constructive on Bund yields here given relative ECB change via Lagarde, much tougher towards the fiscal side and improving relations. On the Brexit front, the restrictions that are like to be incorporated into the new round of positioning for Brexit transitioning flows (should be completed by H120), are likely to be "conditional" on US interference into future trade deals and thus not damaging for European assets till Q320.

For those tracking the rate differentials charts:



While those tracking the flows in FX will know the EUR$ map already:


The floor has been placed, expecting Euro to begin rallying as we enter into the final pages of the cycle. US numbers are holding but is clear they wont be able to hold more than Q1 2020. Smart money will now position before waters become choppy.

Thanks for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments with your charts and views.
Dec 30
Comment: A monster move!!
Jan 03
Trade closed: target reached: First targets cleared in Bund Yields !!

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