📌 EURUSD Market Commentary 2020.10.29
At a time when Lagarde ought to play the “leading” role, something similar to the pacemaker in the Tour de France, and not kick the can with PEPP while reading newspapers about what has happened from her home. I am personally expecting nothingness from the ECB and instead to tee up more QE in December which will be...
📌 EURUSD Market Commentary 2020.10.22
A possible reversal between sellers and buyers taking profits
After Eurobonds Positional Play , buyers might consider the exchanging manoeuvre from 1.20xx a good level to take profits since these levels are dangerous waters for those wanting to add longs. However, the recapture of 1.18xx is apparent, and noteworthy of how...
📍 DAX gaining tempo
The previous 2020 macro map, outdated as it may be, contains the overarching manoeuvre which we can now describe as a compounding play.
It is as follows: my models started to pick up on the alarm bells towards the back-end of last year, and hinted of DAX making revisiting 10,000. The compounding is going to be of great importance, when we...
📅 October 18th
EURUSD - Election Map
Eurobonds positional play
The manoeuvre chosen by Europe to consolidate the debt cannot be criticised. It was inevitable since the Maastricht Treaty that in order to keep the currency alive they would eventually need to obtain with...
📌 An update to the map for French Equities
By now we should have all positioned our portfolios defensively and be sure that in doing so by covering we are ensuring that our opponent will not try a steam roller!
Think back to the diagram and follow the flows....
We have a typical position...
While the single currency block continues to work together on Covid the UK is as divided as ever, from Scottish independence to the North / South divide. Faster Macro data has started to tick back down in Europe and the UK. We are going to see a decline in activity once more into November and with Brexit still to come this will hurt the UK more in...
The latest news from Germany and France " federalisation of the debt " - a prerequisite for survival of the euro. The trigger for Alexander Hamilton in 1790 was Britain, for Angela Merkel its Coronavirus.
So we are gradually getting round to what is an important component in the process of formation in the currency. Like a trojan horse, Eurobonds are being...
The ECB as a weakness
Two possibilities exist for the terrain ahead, one for the continuation or one for the breakdown. This very much amusing position from a markets perspective stems from the initial Eurobonds positional play.
The position is reached as a touchstone for...
📍 A quick update here on the elements of EUR and USD
Ending the 'C' part in the swing down has been a hard struggle and with such a problem a surprising retreat is expected. Buyers are threatening to bottle up their opponent.
A pullback in EURUSD towards 1.15/1.14 will make things a lot easier:
After failing to clear 1.12xx before Christmas it is a good time to update the infamous macro chart. The floor is showing signs of permanently raising higher and with markets itching to play the reflation theme in H120, USD devaluation entering into play via Fed
flooding USD supply side and we are going see a sharp reversal triggered here with momentum on the...
Stormy Weather Has Been on the Horizon for a While but, All in All, No Drastic Thunder Has Been Seen
Today is clearly more of a wait and see mood in the markets, as most of the participants in the investment community are pretending to broadly maintain the status quo after the civilized crowd of innumerable fund managers and private traders found it prudent to...
Actually the EU situation is critical concerning the COVID context.
The European Central Bank wont change anything about policy parameters.
All decision will be made on December.
Actually, the price is under 1.17, the next step is 1.16 . if the 1.16 is broken so im waiting for a return at 1.13.
technically it looks good after the break out from six-month consolidation.
EU rapidly increasing new cases of vir, possible total lockdown in France
Long between 1.6560 / 6525
Stop below 1.6470
EURUSD didn't make a daily close below the trendline to produce a false break signal, and ojectively it has in fact signals some more. Looking at the head and shoulder topping structure while assuming the September top is in, this is a classic consolidation pattern of tight trading ranges forming a harmonious ABC move, so and I'd expect a solid turn at next key...
With EUR strength likely to lead to verbal intervention from the ECB, and the direction of the USD being uncertain for now, EUR/SGD could be the way to express the view of SGD and Asian currency outperformance in the weeks ahead.
EUR/SGD looks set to break below the daily Ichimoku cloud. If 1.5950 breaks decisively, the move can quickly accelerate to test the lows...