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US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield

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US10Y trade ideas

US 10Y TREASURY: NFP implied yieldsFriday was the major trading day on the US financial markets, after the release of jobs data for August. The US nonfarm payrolls came weaker than market was expecting, which implied market higher volatility. The nonfarm payrolls came at the level of 142K, while the market was expecting to see 160K for the month. On the positive side was a modest decrease in the unemployment rate from 4,3% to 4,2% in August. Such weak figures were an indication to markets that the Fed might need to cut interest rates at least by 50 bps in order to support the economy, which might be potentially entering into a recession. Of course, the US economy is still holding in a relatively good shape, where relatively weaker jobs figures should be taken with a reserve. The 10Y Treasury benchmark was pushed to the downside, reaching the lowest weekly level at 3,65% at one occasion at Friday's trading session. Still, yields are ending the week at the level of 3,71%. The week ahead will be used by investors to digest the latest jobs data and reassess their positions accordingly. In this sense some adjustments in yields are possible to the upside. The level of 3,8% might be tested for one more time.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Direction of the 10yr yield and mortgage rates. So here is my analysis on the 10yr yield: The long-term trend is contained in a bull channel (upwards). In the short term: I believe it comes down to 3.2% percent as that was a very important level back in 2022 and 2023 so it will first act as a level of support plus it should be around the bottom of the trendline. If it can break below that level, then i do see the 10yr coming down to 2.7%. The 50,100,150,200 moving averages has almost all crossed over and are sloping down which is a bearish signal. For price action traders the chart has formed a head and shoulders top which is also why i believe it will retest the neckline. The direction of the 10yr will depend on FEDs further plans to cut rates.
TVC:US10YShort
by Betitio
US10Y - Playing With New Week Opening GapsWith Sellside delivering, the expectation was for a retracement to target the previous weeks trading range which never came to fruition. Instead, Thursday delivered into a Sellside imbalance buyside inefficiency, failing to reach into the NWOG, indicating signs of weakness before Friday came about and delivered a bearish inside day candle. I believe there is unfinished business down at 3.763%. I have my eyes on the 25% quadrants within the volume imbalance
TVC:US10YShort
by LegendSince
US 10Y TREASURY: adjusting for a rate cutAfter Powell`s the “time has come” for the Fed to pivot, and the latest PCE data, markets were adjusting their expectations for the level of Fed's rate cuts in the coming period. The Julys PCE data came surprisingly lower from market expectations, of 2.5% on a yearly basis, compared to 2.6% expected by markets. At the same time, investors are considering both personal income, which was higher by 0.3% in July, and personal spending which was higher by 0.5% for the month. The 10Y treasury yields started the previous week around 3.78%, however, they are ending it at 3.90%. Highest weekly level was 3.92% on one occasion. The week ahead might also trigger higher volatility. The Non-farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate for August are scheduled for a release, where any surprises might induce higher market moves. However, at the current point, there is some probability that the level of 4.0% might be tested, but not higher grounds. There is also a potential for a short reversal, but not too lower from current levels.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Yield Curve Inversion: A Warning Sign You Can't IgnoreThe yield curve, which shows the difference between short-term and long-term interest rates on government bonds (US10Y-US02Y). In normal market conditions, this number should be positive because the interest that investors require on 10Y bonds is higher than the interest required on 2Y bonds. Interest is a value of risk perception. Higher risk of default means higher required interest on bonds. As seen on the chart, the moment that the yield-curve "un-inverts" (yellow circles) is a critical market indicator that can often predict upcoming recessions. In the last 35 years, the un-inversion has always preceded a dump in stock prices and a recession. Seeing this chart, it's not too far-fetched to assume that the world will go into a recession at some point in the next 1-2 years.
TVC:US10Y
by FieryTrading
4
Yield Curve De-Inverting: A Bearish September IndicatorFlying under the radar for much of this month is the spread between the yield on the US 2-year Treasury note and the 10-year note. The gap is now just five basis points, having traded at negative 0.5ppt as recently as June 25. As we enter September, notoriously the worst month on the calendar for the S&P 500, if we see short rates continue to fall while the 10-year holds steady, I assert that it would be a bearish indicator for the S&P 500. Here’s how it might play out: if we see a weak payroll report on Friday, September 6, then chances are bad news will be seen as bad news, resulting in a flight to safety in the Treasury market. Of course, intermediate-term notes could see significant upside pressure, leading to a drop in the 10-year. The next key report following the August NFP update is the CPI report later in September. After today’s in-line PCE numbers, there should be a firm beat on where inflation stands. Now that earnings season is over, the focus will turn back to the macro. Considering that the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index remains sharply in the red, we need to see better economic data to help support the growth narrative looking ahead. Sure, the Q2 second update on US real GDP growth was solid, and the Q3 tracking numbers are sanguine, but the market will be forward-looking. So, keep your eye on the 2s10s spread—a yield curve disinversion during this spooky seasonal stretch could bring about volatility.
TVC:US10YShort
by mikezaccardi
US 10Y TREASURY: “time has come” for 25 or 50 bps?The “time has come” for the Fed to pivot. This was the note from Fed Chair Powell at the Wyoming Jackson Hole Symposium, and was the note that the market was waiting for a long time to hear. Current market expectation is that the Fed will make its first cut in September, however, the question that is currently occupying Wall Street is whether it is going to be 25 or 50 basis points? Fed Chair Powell did not make any comments on when the rate cut will happen or what would be the scale of the rate cut. The 10Y Treasury benchmark started the week around the level of 3,9%, and ended it at 3,79%. The market has priced the first rate cut in the coming period, as announced by Powell. During the week ahead, there might be some lower volatility between 3,8% and 3,9%, however, on a long run, the yields will certainly eye the downside.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US10Y - Downside Delivery Has Been ConfirmedA couple weeks back, i was expecting a run below the monthly Sellside liquidity pool which occurred. Well, call it a gap as market gapped below to create a low @ 3.667% before retracing 50% into the previous weeks midpoint. It's looking like a scalpers market going into next week so those trading yields need to be nimble. My bias is bullish but narrative incorporates bearish observation. 4.197% might seem optimistic but in the grand scheme of the macro dealing range, it could be deemed as a short term high with a greater chance of yielding shorts down into the monthly OB and weekly BISI.
TVC:US10YLong
by LegendSince
US10Y going lower with the Fed having no choice but to cut.Almost 10 months ago (November 7 2023, see chart below), we made a bold (for the time being) call on the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y), as against the prevailing market sentiment we gave a sell signal, right after what turned out to be a top: Today's revisit to this pattern shows that the 1M RSI Lower Highs have already started to form a Bearish Reversal on the US10Y price, similar to 2006 - 2007. We are expecting to hit the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at 2.100% as its first Target, on the Fed's first wave of rate cutting and gradually hit the lower Fib targets as the rates stabilize. For better illustration we have plotted also the U.S. Interest Rate (red trend-line), where you can clearly see that the fractal we compare to today, is right before cuts started in August 2007. Also it is a natural consequence of US10Y falling when rate cut cycles start, evident also in June 2019, December 2000, May 1995, May 1989 September 1984, May 1981 etc. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
1