Fomenka

Fomenka

#Natgas The triangle we had projected as an option in the weekend update did not materialise. The price breached the guidelines. Reassembling alternative scenarios leads me to the concept of a diagonal. I showed the contracting diagonal, which is the most common, but an expanding one is also possible.

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Compared to the forecast we published two weeks ago, the natural gas prediction turned out to be 100% accurate. A comparison of the 1 hour charts is shown below. Though I was able to accurately predict the exact shape of the recovery from the recent low, I was uneasy about the longer-term outlook. On daily chart I repeatedly expressed my discomfort with the lack...

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The bigger picture remains ambiguous about what will happen when the price rises to around $83-85. The blue and black scenarios are concrete; wave should contain either a diagonal or an impulse. The green scenario is the least certain because wave b could be anything. However, given the time it took to get to where we are now and the growing disproportions,...

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Last week, the price performed exceptionally well against the outlook. The price formed (W)(X)(Y) with a distinct triangle in wave (Y) and rallied strongly. This occurred when the majority of other analysts, both technical and fundamental, became bearish, casting doubt on us as well. However, our Elliottwave technique proved to be superior at that point. We...

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#WTI seems like have finished the correction wxy. This analysis now is contrarian to most of other views

Fomenka

It appears that the WXY wave has come to an end. I changed Y from ABC flat to ABCDE triangle, the most common pattern in wave Y of of the WXY combo. Invalidation is moved to the triangle's nearest low point. #WTI

Fomenka

#Natgas returns to the previous scenario, in which wave (ii) is complete. Expect a rapid increase from these levels.

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#Natgas looks solid. Although wave (ii) required relabeling and repositioning, the combination of the leading diagonal in presumed wave (i), moving averages support, and oversold RSI seemed encouraging.

Fomenka

#Natgas looks to be favouring the blue scenario posted previously. The price now needs to pullback to form wave (ii) before next rally.

Fomenka

#WTI developed more pronounced (C) of Y of (X), but the count remains unchanged. It also appears that waves 1 and 2 of A have formed, and the price is poised to rally.

Fomenka Updated 

#WTI Long story, short. The way the market is trading today may have eliminated a lot of triangle-based scenarios. I anticipate that the rise will continue to be erratic, but as before, those variations may occur faster or slower than shown. News regarding US oil and distillate inventories will be released tomorrow, and the US and EU are going to announce...

Fomenka

NatGas has finally reached what appears to be a local bottom. As shown on the chart, single abc zigzags can form a triangle, but abc can also start an abc flat. Considering the depth of the retracement, this unlikely to mark the end of the correction. We'll be monitoring for more cues. If the price rises shaping abc zigzag, the triangle will become more likely....

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The chart's key message is that we are likely to be in a large block of corrective waves until about April. It is possible that this will be wave (B) or even (2), followed by sharp impulse wave (C) or (3). However, it is equally feasible that we will continue to see-saw movements, forming a contracting diagonal (C) in the black scenario. An alternative bearish...

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Last week's decline removed several alternatives, including the possibility that the correction was nearly complete, which is ironic. There are no more confusing options with triangles. However, the fact that the price penetrated the red dashed trendline indicates that wave b is most likely not over. Also, because of the steepness and depth of the decline, I am...

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Looks like we have just comleted wave [3 ] of the ending diagonal. This also largely corresponds to my expectations in BTC.

Fomenka Updated 

#USOIL before we celebrate the end of correction let me cast some options of what wave b can look like.

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COVID marked the supercycle's low in oil. Since then, the price has rallied to form a double zigzag consisting of (A)(B)(C). Since February 2022, the price has been falling in a very choppy manner. Recent developments suggest that the price is forming an expanding diagonal. When completed, I believe the price will drop to $60/bbl in 2025. The alternative is...

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The larger picture supports the blue case, in which wave (w) may have already been completed and we are approaching a period of rapid growth to $100 per barrel area. Such a scenario would appear more organic in the sense that wave C of (X) must hurry up; otherwise, it becomes too disproportionate to A and thus less likely. As of now I cannot see any immediate...