Fomenka

Fomenka

Working our way through the leading diagonal formation. If everything goes as planned, this will create a fantastic opportunity in early 2024.

Fomenka

An expanding diagonal is also possible but less likely.

Fomenka

Ok. I am speculating that we are in the upward trend already. But early developments can be fuzzy.

Fomenka

I guess something like this is in the making. Other options are possible, of course. Trying to tell the diagonal in its early stages is not super reliable charting. Considering that I wait oil to rally and stocks to fall something nasty should happen..

Fomenka

I ran out of scenarios. If it is not an epxanding diagonal - I do not know what it is.

Fomenka

Since 1 and 3 are somewhat equal in length wave 5 should extend.

Fomenka

Yay.. Despite the metals blew off the roof today I suspect we are at the turnaround point. Not a high confidence chart, however, this is what I have been contemplating for year or so.

Fomenka Updated 

A reasonable degree of confidence that we might have passed the peak. I think I have spotted a leading diagonal as wave i down and corrective wave ii up.

Fomenka

NatGas has been following the plan so far. Slowly getting into the position to bounce of 200 MA on Daily chart. Perhaps oil will rally due to similar reasons yet to be known.

Fomenka

Oil remains unclear. I so far stick to my previous scenario though I can see the rational for another sell-off too.

Fomenka

One more push upwards is still in the cards to finalise the expending traingle shape (in case it is a triangle).

Fomenka

Imagining how it may end. I no longer use color coding since it adds no value. The level of certainty with ElliottWaves is something illusory.

Fomenka

WTI is bouncing off very strong support. The scenarios here is ether a one last steep rally to complete the expanded diagonal or work out a longer contracting diagonal. No confidence here as this is very speculative. Can perhaps continue to slide down though I do not have a scenario for that yet.

Fomenka

A small pop up is expected to finish the wxy structure. After which a steep sell off is due. If, however, the previous high (red dashed line) is violated - we are likely in a diagonal scenario that I have been tracking since last year I think. In any case it is better to stay on the sidelines for now until more clarity.

Fomenka

Well, I think we are in a downtrend since the last update. Here is the base case. Other options are possible yet I have to zoom out and outline them on a higher timeframe.

Fomenka

Ok, as it often happens given the extrem sell-off on the news I am falling back on one of my older scenarios where wave 2 has a more pronounced wave retracing at least 0.618 of wave 1. Other options are also possible (one indicated as a bigger contracting diagonal). It might be a chance to short but a SL has to be managed carefully.

Fomenka

A strong push can be expected today since we completed waves 1-2

Fomenka

Few options possible. I will watch this chart on the fence for a while.