Fomenka

Fomenka

Seems like we finally found the bottom. I had to retreat to wxy count again. Generally trading waves in a diagonal is not a very good idea. However, here the price is bouncing of a major support level. Just look at the daily chart.

Fomenka

The bullish long-term trend can choose different paths. Of course many of us on the bull side would like it to go straight up. Unfortunately I already see indications of possible diagonal in the making which would be more difficult to trade. One of those indications is an anemic wave 2 which can turn out to be wave as indicated in black. As we travel along...

Fomenka Updated 

Natural Gas is approaching a crunch moment. Because the price has taken the previous low labelled as wave a, the scenario with a even more expanded ABC flat is off the table. A more complex WXY is still possible where current ABC is wave W but less likely than a simple flat. Also a scenario with a longer wave C remains but I would assign it a lower probability.

Fomenka

Until there is some form of bounce and waves 1-2 of the new trend are shaped it is risky to call the bottom. One option could be that the ugly diagonal was extended wave 1. A recent consolidation looks like a neat barrier triangle that usually happens in waves b, x or 4. It it is 4 that means wave 5 should be shorter than wave 3. If it is b we are charting...

Fomenka

Aha! Seems like we are in the original scenario I posted earlier and the diagonal is complete. A lesson going forward - avoid labelling so condensed triangles as I did in the below post -

Fomenka

It has not been long for gas to shape what I see as ending diagonal. The uncertainty about which scenario we are in will stay for some time.

Fomenka

Today the market has invalidated the previous scenario with contracting triangle and now I am looking at 3 versions of a single scenario with [a ] [b ] [c ] flat. The chart is in category FAFO - f..ck around and find out.

Fomenka Updated 

Natgas has followed the Local Alternative scenario and formed a symmetrical triangle. The triangle is running meaning there is only direction possible (on the condition that it is a triangle and not something else). I will keep the idea in the green bucket of confidence.

Fomenka

The previous SP500 update worked like a clock. I did not expect it to play out so fast and took only about half of the money the market offered. Now I provide a bit more nuanced chart on how things can unfold from here. The chart is not exhaustive. There is a probability that the price will consolidate and make another push higher. I will ignore it unless I see...

Fomenka Updated 

Cannot produce a variety of scenarios as of now. Will give it a green confident label and will look for alternatives while watching the price action.

Fomenka

Ok, the price formed a diagonal which I envisaged in my previous post as a terminal wave but then made a new low. Seems like we will have another leg up and lower low before the trend changes. This way the price forms ABC flat structure connecting previous diagonal wave a that I took for the terminal wave in my previous update and new additional wave. The rule...

Fomenka

Despite the fact that there are two consecutive expanding diagonals (which are considered rare), I have assigned the idea a green confidence mark since the low level waves develop in a way that does not suggest many alternatives. However, this is risky. Usually, the chart moves in the other direction when I get overconfident.

Fomenka

A couple of scenarios I am tracking right now. This is not exhaustive. A more pronounced pullback is also possible where wave is already finished and we are in wave down. However, it is too early to elaborate on it.

Fomenka

In addition to previously posted chart there is another alternative of the same scenario where consolidation wave is much smaller.

Fomenka

After such wild swings I have somewhat restored my confidence in the count where according to my analysis we are in the midst of correction, hence volatility and uncertainty. Wave x is plotted in 2 scenarios - triangle and expanded flat. I would say that flat is the preferred one based on the sctructure of waves a and b that tempt me to label both of them as...

Fomenka

The steepness of the rise made me construct another alternative. If the price starts consolidating we are likely to keep going up. Next few hours will show the way. If the price makes a U turn in the next half an hour I will be tempted to short with a tight SL. Not advice.   Colour coding for reference 🟢 - green represents those in which I am reasonably...

Fomenka

I believe we are on track with what I posted previously. At his moment I think the odds for near term (next two weeks) bearish case are rising. I will give this idea a green label based on my growing confidence in the bigger picture which allows me expect only few combinations in the near term Colour coding for reference 🟢 - green represents those in which I...

Fomenka

I think we are still in the ending diagonal scenario. But given that it is taking that much time to form that ending diagonal I am starting to have my doubts about it. Within that scenario wave b can still take shape of running flat. Once wave b is done wave c can be an impulse, a contracting diagonal or an expanding one (less probable hence light grey). Once...