In the evening, we have the monthly CAD CPI data to be released. There is a forecast for data to be released at 0.4%, from the previous of -0.4%. The USDCAD has been climbing up, currently trying to break above 1.2720. If CPI data is released to be 0.4% or better, we could see a strengthening of the USDCAD (but this would be a counter trend trade) I’ll be...
DXY struggling to bounce strongly off 90. Might see some weakening of the USD, but traders should be careful and consider possibility of this as a technical and reactionary move. This retracement of the DXY coincides with the S&P 500 bouncing off the 2,700 level. I’ll be looking for trade setups which highlights continual USD strength. For example, the...
Seeing USD slowly moving into positions of strength, across most of the major currency pairs. This could be a result of the continual sell off in the S&P500. However, it’ll also be important to note the FOMC meeting minutes to be released tomorrow morning (3am). Typically, meeting minutes releases are non events (compared to press conferences). However,...
Could 107 be the barrier, once broken will bring about 108 and 109 for the USDJPY. Whilst volatility is seen in the USD, it is also slowly gaining strength. Although the BoJ seems to be moving away from its aggressive stimulus plan, forgoing a 2% inflation target, the Yen seems to be bought only on risk-off situations (reserve assets are bought). Therefore, if...
Happy Chinese New Year & US President’s Day Back from a short CNY break, you will notice the narrow range which the market is trading in for today, primarily due to the Chinese and US market being closed today. Since my last analysis, we saw the USD strengthen against the major currency pairs, as the S&P 500 shows signs of reversing its recent gains. Due to a...
Happy Chinese New Year & US President’s Day Back from a short CNY break, you will notice the narrow range which the market is trading in for today, primarily due to the Chinese and US market being closed today. Since my last analysis, we saw the USD strengthen against the major currency pairs, as the S&P 500 shows signs of reversing its recent gains. Due to a...
Happy Chinese New Year & US President’s Day Back from a short CNY break, you will notice the narrow range which the market is trading in for today, primarily due to the Chinese and US market being closed today. Since my last analysis, we saw the USD strengthen against the major currency pairs, as the S&P 500 shows signs of reversing its recent gains. Due to a...
This evening, we have US CPI and Retail Sales numbers. A strong result could give the USDJPY the base to propel off. However, with a strong data, I would be looking towards EURUSD, to move lower from a breach of the 1.2350 level. Mixed or weak data from the US and we could see USDJPY plunge towards 106.
Expect another round of USDYEN moving lower, pausing at 107, before finding support at 106. However, I would look to get out of a trade before the evening. This evening, we have US CPI and Retail Sales numbers. A strong result could give the USDJPY the base to propel off. Mixed or weak data from the US and we could see USDJPY plunge towards 106.
Looking at the upcoming GBP CPI data, anticipation is for a slightly weaker than previous, at 2.9%. Although a lower CPI should bring GBPUSD lower, in this scenario, it would support the BoE’s view for a rate hike in the future, as CPI remains within the 2-3% target range. Therefore, I’ll look for a break upward of 1.3820 towards 1.4000
With broad based anticipation for a weaker data and a recently strengthening USD, we could see the USDCAD slowly climb towards 1.2750 and possibly the December highs of 1.2900.
In the evening, we await the BoE rate decision. Again, rates will likely remain unchanged, with little to no dissent in the decision. I’ll be focusing more on the Inflation Report, identifying signals on whether inflation would be sustainable at the 2% target, with a stronger GBPUSD > $1.35
Early morning, we have RBNZ rate decision. While the decision to maintain rates is expected, a neutral statement is anticipated to accompany the decision. Looking for another quick jump in the NZDUSD, followed by a reversal throughout the day.
Early morning, we have RBNZ rate decision. While the decision to maintain rates is expected, a neutral statement is anticipated to accompany the decision. Looking for another quick jump in the NZDUSD, followed by a reversal throughout the day.
Early tomorrow we see NZD employment data release, with an expectation for worse than expected performance. This is likely to drive the NZDUSD lower
I’ll still be cautious towards trading on sustained USD strength, especially seeing today’s price retracement. Take note of AUD retail and rate decision tomorrow. The AUDUSD came off the 0.8110 high, bouncing off 0.7900. While I do not expect any rate change, it’ll be important to pay attention to the RBA’s rate statement, and on their expectation and actions...
Expectation is for data to be as expected, but generating a GBP positive (upward move)
I’ll be paying attention the CAD GDP this evening, as a surprise could present. The USDCAD has been trading in a 100pip range (1.2280 and 1.2380), a break of the support could see price extend toward 1.2100.