Today, again we see a low economic data releases, however, some USD strength is expected, with the exception of USDJPY. This is because of the BoJ’s expectation for the Yen to strengthen in the short term, due to the US currency policy.
Today, again we see a low economic data releases, however, some USD strength is expected, with the exception of USDJPY. This is because of the BoJ’s expectation for the Yen to strengthen in the short term, due to the US currency policy.
Looking for a possible strong reaction for the AUDUSD at the 0.8100 resistance level, to retest 0.80. This is with the view that the recent AUD upward move has been driven by US Dollar weakness, rather than AUD strength (quite likely unsustainable).
As we look at the GBP q/q GDP, with an expectation for performance to hold the same (at 0.4%). This may represent a trend following buying opportunity for the GBPUSD, especially if the GBPUSD holds above 1.42. In the evening, we have US q/q GDP, expecting a data slightly worse than previous. This will be a data release I’ll be avoiding, due to 3 reasons, A...
With a strong rejection, a counter trend trade could develop nicely.
I’ll be looking out for tomorrow’s BoJ Monetary Policy Statement and Outlook Report. Expectation in this scenario is for the BoJ to maintain their current stance, as the economy progresses along as planned. Pay attention to the tone of the statement, as discussions on the timing and scale of policy normalizations take place. In my opinion, I anticipate the...
this afternoon we have the release of GBP retail sales data for December. Interestingly, a result of -0.8% is expected despite the likelihood of increased sales during the festive period. Look for buying opportunities if the GBPUSD bounces strongly off the 1.3920 support (in lined with the current trend of the GBPUSD)
Currently BTC is bouncing off the support level 11,000 and the bottom of the channel. I'll be watching how price reacts in the shaded arc area, to decide if this going to be a short retracement or a true recovery?
Expect further USD price consolidation (or slight weakness) as we move towards a potential US government shutdown this Friday. Look out for headlines regarding this news, paying particular attention indicating if US lawmakers have come to the agreement to avoid a shutdown. DXY has bounced off the 90.40 support level, but until the shutdown has been avoided,...
The economic data highlight for today/tonight will be the BoC rate decision. Has the Canadian economy and sentiment improved enough to warrant an interest rate increase by the BoC? While an earlier rate increase is highly anticipated (brought forward from April), this would also mean that the BoC is unlikely to further increase rates in the medium term. This...
Today we have GBP CPI y/y data to be released. Current concern is the pace of CPI growth in the UK economy, as expectation for CPI is at 3%, which is above the 1-3% range. In the usual circumstance, as inflation increases (especially beyond the target range), the tendency is for the Central Bank to increase interest rates. However, I do not think that the BoE will...
A counter trend opportunity could arise on the AUDUSD. As it approaches the 2015 & 2017 high of 0.8070, a reversal with very good R:R could be likely.
The EUR/USD and GBP/USD each rose by approximately 70pips as a result of the chinese consideration to stop buying treasury However, we should view it as a recommendation/consideration, thus not likely to have a lasting impact, evident in the strong retracement. We look for a continuation of GBP/USD moving lower, if it is able to break strongly below the 1.3500 level.
We could see an upset in the AUD economic data tomorrow morning could cause the AUD to break the 0.7800 level, extending downwards towards the 0.7730 level.
Today, we have the GBP Manufacturing Production data, with expectation for data to be better than expected. However, it is not expected that price of GBP/USD will move up significantly, due to the 73 pip move downward yesterday. A higher probability opportunity would be to sell the GBP/USD if data is released negative.
NFP on Friday (Actual 148k against forecasted 190k), with hourly earnings as forecasted at 0.3%. This weaker than expected economic data resulted in a weaker USD, with USDCAD dropping 140pips within the hour. However, this employment report also indicates steady improvement in the labour market, with no signs of overheating. Therefore, we can still expect the FED...
If we get a positive business outlook for the canadian economy, we could see the possibility of rate hike by the BoC This would further strengthen the CAD. A retest of 1.2450 resistance before heading lower toward 1.2280 support is likely
XRP $4 and $5 definitely in view, after it breaks resistance of $3