insanemalin

insanemalin

Good morning everyone, today on the euro pair, After 26 weeks we had the highest number of Negative net positions for the EUR futures. And we had a Buy signal from the commercial side. Alongside that we can see the DXY is slowing down after starting off 2024 with very strong movement to the upside.

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We are at an interesting place in the S&P500, on a positive news week the market failed twice. NFP and CPI news. In my believes and past experience this is showing signs of market exhaustion. I have put a Sell stop at the stop of last weeks price movement risking 1% to gain 2.3%

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For the 1st time im noticing the peso is following the S&P500, far as the Peso goes it had 16 weeks of commercial market shorting the currency. we may be holding this trade for another week or two.

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We took a trade previously on GBP with a loss of 0.5% - short, then took another trade after NFP confirmed direction on a swing strategy. along with COT data which helped to confirm the short sizing by the large contract holders we taken another short.

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CAD Futures - Last week we had a very strong price rejection which created a weekly pin bar. but we needed more evidence to support this. This evidence came in a form of Commercials changing positions which is at 91,572 net positions. This is the highest net position in the last 26 weeks. Also in another weeks time we will have the NFP and CPI reports coming...

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CAD holds one of the highest non commercial vs commercial positions, it has shown strength last week when there was very positive news in the US and CAD held price between 0.7292 and 0.7229. Creating a pinbar which the price was rejected against going lower. We have gone into the trade with a 0.5% exposure.

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Mexican Peso, 16 weeks of short positions compiled for the Peso. This data was gathered by the use of the COT report even with economic growth alongside interest rates which is a positive for the peso. I do believe in the short term peso is over extended.

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Interesting price rejection after CPI numbers came out, Peso has not been this high since 2016, 2017. major commercial and non commercial contracts are loading up on the Sell side, price action must confirm.

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Prior to CPI and Prior to 4 weeks before the CPI of 4/11/2024 We had 4 weeks of sell signals through COT report. Date - Net position 03/19/24 -78,920 3/12/24 -78,920 3/5/24 -64,123 27/2/24 -51,590 Because of these net position changes I have decided to short GBP. So far Cotton short trade is correct currently making 4% AUD Lost .5% EUR Lost .5%

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CHF - Futures, there is interesting levels of positioning by the commercials are taking place, it has not yet been confirmed from my end, but there is quite bit of long positions are being taken up by larger traders. Will keep an eye out for turning points in the near future in the next few weeks.

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Cotton Futures This trade once again I took after looking at the COT report and WASDA which reports on the grain and the meat market.A In the COT report once again the markets were crowded from the non commercials and the commercials. WASDA was showing signs of weakening prices on cotton. After a weekly engulfment I waited for price to pull back for a short entry.

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EUR - Futures we had a weekly engulfment of course in the weekly time frame, waited for a pull back to get into the market. COT report suggest there is an over crowding of the Non commercials and commercials at this point in the market.

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Weekly engulfment and using the COT report there is an area where commercials and non commercial players in the market have crowded the market. After the weekly engulfment i used a pull back to go long on the AUD futures The weekly engulfment was caused by the US NFP report, currently waiting for the CPI report as we speak this week

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Positional traders still holding onto shorts, as its reflected on the charts by a pull back

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Reason being the lineup in the futures market

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230 pm we have a news report coming out for jpy, its minor which is in 30 mins since this idea was published, looking at the yeilds and the bonds which affects this currency, i have assumed it will be a buy.

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main reason why i took this trade, reasoning was after looking at yields, bonds, and also what happned at the Merc in the USA on monday. and the fact that later on today there is a CPI report coming out, took a position for a short

insanemalin

the markets been shook by political news, the instatutional traders would have been taking longs into the retail traders reactions to the UK's May's media output last night