Hello everyone,
This will be my last post till next week because its too much, haha.
But lots of questions and lots of opinions I see floating around so I thought I would jump in and just share some insight, thoughts and my own opinions.
So first off:
Today went really well. If you follow me over on ES1! you know I was targeting our high probability targets this week which were between 410 - 413 on SPY (See this idea below:)
As we started on the bearish side, I was buying the dips in anticipation of of the rally (minus a short NQ scalp I did off open today).
And that payed off very well! I did flip short, per my plan, as we entered the high prob range.
So what's next? Bearish or bullish?
I want to emphasize here, I see many people with a thesis. Permabulls, permabears, etc. But at the end of the day, for me, probabilities dictate what to trade.
Don't get too caught up one way or the other. I don't care about technicals, chart patterns, etc. etc. I really just care what are the high probability targets.
As of right now, we have removed all of the high probability targets for the week (Remember they were 407, 410 and 413). So there really is nothing left to trade reliably. I am speculatively shorting because that was my plan, but I am not incredibly short biased and this is a risky play because its not backed by immediate probability (actually it is, probability for tomorrow is bearish).
I have run the probabilities on SPY and SPX on the monthly. SPX was able to identify 1 identical month. Both SPY and SPX support a bearish thesis this month with a move down to 385 on SPY. That said, it does not have a high degree of confidence because it has not been able to identify enough similar setups to draw conclusive, high confidence conclusions (more on this in a second).
So how do we manage this?
Well, I just continue doing what I do each and every week. Look at the high prob targets and play those. And on the daily, I look at the high prob targets and play those.
SO if you have a thesis that you are married to, or are trying to time the market, just stop. Its not helpful and doesn't work in these market conditions. My rule that I articulated that I follow is to trade:
1. Probabilities first,
2. Price action second and
3. Fundamentals third.
Nothing else. This is what my chart looks like for day trading:
I had my key prob levels plotted, DSL I use as a pseudo vwap and VIX I use to reference overbought and oversold conditions where I want to add or scale out, and that is it. No fibs, not EWT waves, just the probs and the PA with an idea of the fundamentals (FOMC today).
So how does this help you?
1. Stop having larger term biases.
2. Identify whether you are a permabull or permabear. Chances are that you are one or the other. Its almost impossible not to identify more with one way or the other. For me, I am a permabear. Pay attention to this and remember it. Because its going to interfere with your ability to objectively discern data. This is why I trade probabilities, the computer decides my bias for me.
3. Stop swinging for the hills. Its very unlikely you are going to time the market correctly. Stop trying to catch the grand mal move. Its likely not going to happen because let's be real, none of us are that skilled and no amount of analysis is that perfect.
4. Pay attention to the fundamentals, the price action and the general feel of the market right now.
SO where are we going?
As I said I have run the probability assessment on the monthly and its bearish but there is not a lot of confidence in the bearish assessment (confidence indicates that its able to identify multiple identical setups). SPY was not able to identify any identical setup and compared similar individual instances instead of identical setups. SPX was able to identify 1 identical setup.
What this means is that we should just continue to take it week by week and see where the targets and probabilities lie (I mean for me, you use your strategy on a weekly timeframe). I am not going to swing for the hills. At the end of the day, I honestly don't care what the market does, really. The people attempting to forecast tops, bottoms and make far dated forecast predictions are struggling and getting screwed front right and centre. This is not the market for long dated positions imo (actually, it never is a market for long dated positions unless you are simply investing). Its too volatile and its too ambigious. Take it step by step. Don't swing for the hills.
The market seems bullish in my opinion. But there are a lot of fundamental bearish catalysts that can pop up at any time. So we need to just take it slow and steady and not get too ahead of ourselves in the long term. Stick to the near term.
You don't need to swing for the hills to make money. You don't need to catch the top and bottom to make money.
I never disclose P&L because I think its in poor taste as trader. I also cater to many people who are just learning and getting started or who have failed in the past and are trying to make a new go at it and I do not want to set unrealistic expectations. But just know, my P&L thus far for the week is 5 figures and has stemmed from me not timing tops, bottoms and actually having some positions go pretty red before becoming profitable. Many people have made less, many people have made more. But it just shows you that you don't need to swing for the hills to make any amount of money. And you don't need to have a bias to make money. I legit just play the high prob targets each day. Of course, account size matters. This is my chapter 6 (2023 marks roughly 6 years as a trader). If you have a 500$ account and you are making 25 to 30$ a day, that is about 6% which is an incredibly gain! Start small, get consistent and then position size will follow.
These are my erratic thoughts right now. But really the moral of the story is this:
1. Watch your biases. Reflect on how they tend to make their way into your assessments.
2. The market is very unclear right now. Its not the time to take aggressive long or short position. We need to play it by ear.
3. Don't feel obligated to be in a trade. For this week, the high prob trade is over. The high prob targets I gave last week for this week were hit. So technically, form a swing perspective, there is no good trade anymore because we have to wait for the next high prob setup to come to fruition.
4. Chill, just chill.
Also the real time monthly ranges are shaded in the chart.
I will maybe do a bit of an analysis when things become clear, but as of right now I am just taking things day by day, week by week.
I am sorry I don't have more conviction or insight to give you in terms of actual market trajectory. I am just as confused as everyone. Does the PA make sense? Yes. It does. Like I said, SPY went exactly where the probabilities said it would go. Does it make sense fundamentally? Maybe not. I don't know. I guess we will see what happens.
Safe trades everyone!
This will be my last post till next week because its too much, haha.
But lots of questions and lots of opinions I see floating around so I thought I would jump in and just share some insight, thoughts and my own opinions.
So first off:
Today went really well. If you follow me over on ES1! you know I was targeting our high probability targets this week which were between 410 - 413 on SPY (See this idea below:)
As we started on the bearish side, I was buying the dips in anticipation of of the rally (minus a short NQ scalp I did off open today).
And that payed off very well! I did flip short, per my plan, as we entered the high prob range.
So what's next? Bearish or bullish?
I want to emphasize here, I see many people with a thesis. Permabulls, permabears, etc. But at the end of the day, for me, probabilities dictate what to trade.
Don't get too caught up one way or the other. I don't care about technicals, chart patterns, etc. etc. I really just care what are the high probability targets.
As of right now, we have removed all of the high probability targets for the week (Remember they were 407, 410 and 413). So there really is nothing left to trade reliably. I am speculatively shorting because that was my plan, but I am not incredibly short biased and this is a risky play because its not backed by immediate probability (actually it is, probability for tomorrow is bearish).
I have run the probabilities on SPY and SPX on the monthly. SPX was able to identify 1 identical month. Both SPY and SPX support a bearish thesis this month with a move down to 385 on SPY. That said, it does not have a high degree of confidence because it has not been able to identify enough similar setups to draw conclusive, high confidence conclusions (more on this in a second).
So how do we manage this?
Well, I just continue doing what I do each and every week. Look at the high prob targets and play those. And on the daily, I look at the high prob targets and play those.
SO if you have a thesis that you are married to, or are trying to time the market, just stop. Its not helpful and doesn't work in these market conditions. My rule that I articulated that I follow is to trade:
1. Probabilities first,
2. Price action second and
3. Fundamentals third.
Nothing else. This is what my chart looks like for day trading:
I had my key prob levels plotted, DSL I use as a pseudo vwap and VIX I use to reference overbought and oversold conditions where I want to add or scale out, and that is it. No fibs, not EWT waves, just the probs and the PA with an idea of the fundamentals (FOMC today).
So how does this help you?
1. Stop having larger term biases.
2. Identify whether you are a permabull or permabear. Chances are that you are one or the other. Its almost impossible not to identify more with one way or the other. For me, I am a permabear. Pay attention to this and remember it. Because its going to interfere with your ability to objectively discern data. This is why I trade probabilities, the computer decides my bias for me.
3. Stop swinging for the hills. Its very unlikely you are going to time the market correctly. Stop trying to catch the grand mal move. Its likely not going to happen because let's be real, none of us are that skilled and no amount of analysis is that perfect.
4. Pay attention to the fundamentals, the price action and the general feel of the market right now.
SO where are we going?
As I said I have run the probability assessment on the monthly and its bearish but there is not a lot of confidence in the bearish assessment (confidence indicates that its able to identify multiple identical setups). SPY was not able to identify any identical setup and compared similar individual instances instead of identical setups. SPX was able to identify 1 identical setup.
What this means is that we should just continue to take it week by week and see where the targets and probabilities lie (I mean for me, you use your strategy on a weekly timeframe). I am not going to swing for the hills. At the end of the day, I honestly don't care what the market does, really. The people attempting to forecast tops, bottoms and make far dated forecast predictions are struggling and getting screwed front right and centre. This is not the market for long dated positions imo (actually, it never is a market for long dated positions unless you are simply investing). Its too volatile and its too ambigious. Take it step by step. Don't swing for the hills.
The market seems bullish in my opinion. But there are a lot of fundamental bearish catalysts that can pop up at any time. So we need to just take it slow and steady and not get too ahead of ourselves in the long term. Stick to the near term.
You don't need to swing for the hills to make money. You don't need to catch the top and bottom to make money.
I never disclose P&L because I think its in poor taste as trader. I also cater to many people who are just learning and getting started or who have failed in the past and are trying to make a new go at it and I do not want to set unrealistic expectations. But just know, my P&L thus far for the week is 5 figures and has stemmed from me not timing tops, bottoms and actually having some positions go pretty red before becoming profitable. Many people have made less, many people have made more. But it just shows you that you don't need to swing for the hills to make any amount of money. And you don't need to have a bias to make money. I legit just play the high prob targets each day. Of course, account size matters. This is my chapter 6 (2023 marks roughly 6 years as a trader). If you have a 500$ account and you are making 25 to 30$ a day, that is about 6% which is an incredibly gain! Start small, get consistent and then position size will follow.
These are my erratic thoughts right now. But really the moral of the story is this:
1. Watch your biases. Reflect on how they tend to make their way into your assessments.
2. The market is very unclear right now. Its not the time to take aggressive long or short position. We need to play it by ear.
3. Don't feel obligated to be in a trade. For this week, the high prob trade is over. The high prob targets I gave last week for this week were hit. So technically, form a swing perspective, there is no good trade anymore because we have to wait for the next high prob setup to come to fruition.
4. Chill, just chill.
Also the real time monthly ranges are shaded in the chart.
I will maybe do a bit of an analysis when things become clear, but as of right now I am just taking things day by day, week by week.
I am sorry I don't have more conviction or insight to give you in terms of actual market trajectory. I am just as confused as everyone. Does the PA make sense? Yes. It does. Like I said, SPY went exactly where the probabilities said it would go. Does it make sense fundamentally? Maybe not. I don't know. I guess we will see what happens.
Safe trades everyone!
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