No catchy title today. I mean I never do catchy titles anyway.
Anyway, what a nightmare day. If you followed my video, you will know it was not a great day for me. I would be ending the day net red if I didn't own futures last night.
So if you are also a day trader and had not a great day, don't feel bad.
I am long. I got long at some random location during the day ( I think average was around 401.45) and then added into close (via UPRO).
I don't have anything insightful to tell you that hasn't already been said. We had a bearish 99% target. SPY removed it.
IWM had a bearish 99% target and look at what happened just before close:
We touched it and bounced.
That means, we have removed all 99% targets. Which means, we should probably be more on the bullish side. These were pretty aggressive 99% targets. Like they were quite bearish and the market made an effort to expunge them all today.
Coincidence? Maybe.
But what else I am seeing is this:
Futures got halted before coming close/touching its 0% range. Which is good.
SPY also took out its high prob bearish target as well in the course of taking out its 99% target. This is making a lot of room for upside, IMO.
What about probs for tomorrow:
On futures they are somewhat bullish. Futures tends to be a better indication of sentiment than SPY probabilities. Which has lead me to the question of "well what would an SPX probability model look like? Would it be more reliable than SPY?" And these are questions that demand answers. So I am looking into it.
But my futures probs played out exactly as predicted, so I tend to place more focus on what they say than SPY itself. SPX will be a project i work on.
So bullish?
Maybe, I don't actually know and am too tired to care at this point. Today kicked my butt. I am long and we'll see what happens. At this point, *hands up* "Math take the wheel".
Also! I learned something that I wanted to share. If anyone has checked out my newly released Vix Oscillator, I found something interesting:
On the 5 minute TF, you can clearly see bearish vs bullish trend days. When VIX rests above the ticker, its clearly a bearish trend. Inverse when its a bullish trend.
Pretty cool huh?
Safe trades everyone!
Anyway, what a nightmare day. If you followed my video, you will know it was not a great day for me. I would be ending the day net red if I didn't own futures last night.
So if you are also a day trader and had not a great day, don't feel bad.
I am long. I got long at some random location during the day ( I think average was around 401.45) and then added into close (via UPRO).
I don't have anything insightful to tell you that hasn't already been said. We had a bearish 99% target. SPY removed it.
IWM had a bearish 99% target and look at what happened just before close:
We touched it and bounced.
That means, we have removed all 99% targets. Which means, we should probably be more on the bullish side. These were pretty aggressive 99% targets. Like they were quite bearish and the market made an effort to expunge them all today.
Coincidence? Maybe.
But what else I am seeing is this:
Futures got halted before coming close/touching its 0% range. Which is good.
SPY also took out its high prob bearish target as well in the course of taking out its 99% target. This is making a lot of room for upside, IMO.
What about probs for tomorrow:
On futures they are somewhat bullish. Futures tends to be a better indication of sentiment than SPY probabilities. Which has lead me to the question of "well what would an SPX probability model look like? Would it be more reliable than SPY?" And these are questions that demand answers. So I am looking into it.
But my futures probs played out exactly as predicted, so I tend to place more focus on what they say than SPY itself. SPX will be a project i work on.
So bullish?
Maybe, I don't actually know and am too tired to care at this point. Today kicked my butt. I am long and we'll see what happens. At this point, *hands up* "Math take the wheel".
Also! I learned something that I wanted to share. If anyone has checked out my newly released Vix Oscillator, I found something interesting:
On the 5 minute TF, you can clearly see bearish vs bullish trend days. When VIX rests above the ticker, its clearly a bearish trend. Inverse when its a bullish trend.
Pretty cool huh?
Safe trades everyone!
Comment:
Ya'll seein how this SPX thing worked out?
Crazy.
Crazy.
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I did it for SPX. I created a very beta prob model thing.
Please don't take this as advice, this is un-tested, just tinkering around.
But essentially it says bullish tomorrow with a TP of 4049 and 4063.
It correctly identified today as bearish as well, which is essentially all I am basing its validity off of haha. So please don't take this as advice, it needs to be fully tested.
We will see what happens I guess.